Week 6 Line Moves

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Chad Milman - ESPN Insider
NFL line moves for Week 6 -- Behind the Bets - ESPN

John Avello, who runs the Wynn's book, is a great guy to catch up with. He's got an old-school tone in his voice and still goes by "Johnny." Say his name fast and it's impossible to tell where the Johnny ends and the Avello begins. He used to run the book at Bally's. (Where I stayed for my bachelor party more than a decade ago and spent a night dressed as Elvis).

Putting up the first line is a badge of honor in Vegas -- and offshore. It's a sign that you're confident and a little bit crazy. But it earns the respect of sharp players, because you are willing to go out with an opinion before anyone else. That also means you will get tapped by wiseguys almost immediately. It doesn't cost much, but it costs something, when all the other books are still waiting to see what the rest of the world opens at. "I like dealing with the sharp bettors," Avello says. "They come in and bet their opinion and I enjoy taking that action as opposed to moving a line based on other books' moves. And I enjoy it when it's my work against their work."

Avello gets his college lines up by 3:30 on Sunday afternoons and his NFL lines up a couple of hours later. He works the numbers himself, taking into account the opinion of a consultant he trusts, and limits bettors to $2K on college games and $10K on the NFL. But if sharps want a piece, they have to be fast. Almost inevitably the lines adjust after that first hit.

So what lines have bettors been picking at most this week at the Wynn? Let's take a look.

Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh SteelersLine moves: Steelers opened as 11-point favorites, moved to 14-point favorites, currently 13.5-point favorites

Avello says that means: "Well this one is pretty obvious, with the Browns starting McCoy and Big Ben coming back at the same time. This Steelers team was projected to be 2-2 at best. Instead they are 3-1 and playing defense as well as anyone in the game. So it jumped immediately, but then we found out the point of resistance is two touchdowns, because that is when someone bought it back. This is the risk of coming out early. I got hit at 11, 11.5, 12.5, 13 and 13.5, so I'm exposed at several different numbers. I think it will get back to 14 once we get the guests in here this weekend."

Matchup: Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ersLine moves: Niners opened as a touchdown favorite, currently favored by 6.5

Avello says that means: "I was surprised by this move, I thought people would play San Francisco off the bat. My thinking was that, while wiseguys know Oakland is capable of a good game, they also believe San Fran will be live this week. My actual initial number was 6.5 and I put up 7 thinking it was going to go higher. I've started getting people laying the favorite, but not enough to make me go back up to 7, at least not yet."

Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at New England PatriotsLine moves: Baltimore opened as plus-3, currently plus-2.5

Avello says that means: "I had been playing around with the money on this before moving the number, because I didn't want to get off of the key number of 3. I had it plus-3 even money and took $10,000 on that. I even got it to plus-3 at minus-120, where we took a couple of bets. Meanwhile the Patriots were at plus-105. But all the money kept coming in on the Ravens -- all Ravens all the time. Anytime someone can get the Ravens plus-3 right now, it's gotta be a take. I decided I had to go to the 2.5."

Matchup: San Diego Chargers at St. Louis RamsLine moves: Chargers opened as 6.5-point favorites, currently favored by 8.

Avello says that means: "I was a little light on the Chargers and made it too cheap. I should have been at least a touchdown, but I gave too much weight to their loss at Oakland and not enough to the Rams getting killed by Detroit. I was worried people would see value on the Rams as touchdown dogs at home. It took me about five seconds to realize I was wrong, because that's how quickly this game got hit."

Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville JaguarsLine moves: Titans opened as 2.5-point favorites, currently favored by 3

Avello says that means: "I had to make Tennessee the favorite, but I know that Jacksonville is a live dog at home, played the Colts tough and is feeling good right now. So I didn't want to give the Jaguars the full field goal. But that's where the players here in Vegas told me it should be. This was another one that was hit really early, right after San Diego. But when making lines, there is only so much you can do. I can't be thinking about who is going to win the game. I can only put up what I think is a fair number. Believe me, I would struggle as much as anyone picking winners. It's hard."