Week 7 Doobie thoughts : )

[Kramer]

SURVIVER PICK :

Never pick a road team
Never an underdog
Never a bad team

Atlanta Home Cinci
Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-2)
Atlanta
is 15-1 at the Georgia Dome and has won
11 straight games there in which quarterback Matt Ryan has started
Percentage of money on Falcons: 67% (17,000 bets)
(Vegas bets)


Atlanta
Lost away at Pit
Won Home Arizona
Won at N.Orl
Won home S.Fran
W at Clev
Lost away at Philly

Bengals 2 wins
Panthers, Ravens


Option 2
Ravens
The Bills are 27th against the pass and also the run
The Ravens sacked Tom Brady 3 times

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 87% (25,000 bets)



By Nick Bogdanovich
What's more fun, thinking you'll have a chance to
get there the whole game?
Or, spending the afternoon or evening dreading
that your team is going to blow it?

Until squares adjust this mindset, they
really have no chance to earn a profit.

They may lose less as they get better informed.
They're not going to WIN until they play more underdogs.


If you're going to play a favorite
(favorites do cover about half the time after all),

you should play the RIGHT favorites.

Don't lay 8 when the spread should be 6.


Don't lay double digits unless you have very good reasons
to believe the
favorite is breathing fire.

Don't lay 3 if the game is a true pick-em.

It's a simple fundamental, but one that squares
never even bother with
because they wait until game day
to place their Las Vegas bets.



will post other stuff later

...

[Steel]

I have a feeling that the Patriots are going to beat the Ravens. Better coach and he better QB AND getting points. I must be dreaming. Always enjoy the doobie thoughts. Best of luck to you

[Kramer]

good dream you had
Ravens r playin da Bills , Patriots are playin the Chargers accroding to my schedule :

[get_a_kloo]

I hope you were thinking the same thing last week and played the PATS.
BOL this week everyone!

[Kramer]

SHARPS QUIET WITH SO MANY GAMES NEAR KEY NUMBER OF THREE
DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

It's been a strange week in Las Vegas and Reno for NFL bettors.
There are question marks at quarterback in a few places because of injuries.
And, a full EIGHT games are either sitting on or within a half point of the
magic number of 3 as we go to press.

First, here are the games at three at press time.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami
Atlanta (-3) vs. Cincinnati
Tennessee (-3) vs. Philadelphia
Chicago (-3) vs. Washington
San Francisco (-3) at Carolina
Tampa Bay (-3) vs. St. Louis
San Diego (-3) vs. New England

Remember that sharps tend to prefer underdogs.
So, we may see sharp money on the 3-point underdogs Sunday in
these highlighted games if the public doesn't act on the favorite.
My sense from talking to sharps is that they're most interested in
Philadelphia, Washington, and New England amongst that group.
Now, let's run through the card noting totals changes, or moves in games not on a three.

It's been a strange week in Las Vegas and Reno for NFL bettors.
There are question marks at quarterback in a few places because of injuries.
And, a full EIGHT games are either sitting on or within a half point of the
magic number of 3 as we go to press.
As I've mentioned many times in the past, sharps (professional wagerers)
will generally fade public action at a line of three because so many games land there.
If squares (the public) support the favorite so much that the line goes to 3.5,
then sharps will play the dog.
If the squares for some reason line up on a high profile underdog,
then sharps will take the favorite at 2.5
The public generally doesn't bet until the weekend.
So, there hasn't been any action to fade!
A game I will make note of is Minnesota/Green Bay in the prime time matchup
Sunday on NBC. That one opened at Green Bay -3. Sharps hit Minnesota
plus the points early, driving the line down to Green Bay by 2.5.
Otherwise, the three's are mostly sitting there waiting for something to happen.
That will force me to adjust my normal format. I don't want to say
"here's another game at three, nothing's happening yet" over and over again.
Let me list the games that are at three right now, then I'll only talk about
other line moves and totals as we run through the schedule in rotation order.
First, here are the games at three at press time.
Pittsburgh (-3) at Miami
Atlanta (-3) vs. Cincinnati
Tennessee (-3) vs. Philadelphia
Chicago (-3) vs. Washington
San Francisco (-3) at Carolina
Tampa Bay (-3) vs. St. Louis
San Diego (-3) vs. New England


Remember that sharps tend to prefer underdogs.
So, we may see sharp money on the 3-point underdogs
Sunday in these highlighted games if the public doesn't act on the favorite.


My sense from talking to sharps is that they're most interested in
Philadelphia, Washington, and New England amongst that group.
Now, let's run through the card noting totals changes, or moves
in games not on a three.


PITTSBURGH AT MIAMI: The opening total of 40 was bet up to 41,
possibly with an expectation that Pittsburgh's offense
will take steps forward each week as
Ben Roethlisberger shakes off his rustiness.
CINCINNATI AT ATLANTA: An opening total of 42 is up
a tick to 42½ Note that sharps bet Cincinnati (+4)
on the opener down to the line of +3 that you're seeing currently.
JACKSONVILLE AT KANSAS CITY: It looks like Todd Bouman will quarterback the Jaguars...making this a tough game to put a number on.
I'm seeing Kansas City -9 right now.
Tough to lay that big a price with the Chiefs, and sharps
aren't excited about investing in Bouman in a short preparation week.
PHILADELPHIA AT TENNESSEE:
No move on the opening total of 42½.
Tennessee's starting quarterback isn't locked in stone yet.
Sharps will wait for news on that before acting.
WASHINGTON AT CHICAGO:
No movement here either on the side or total since the openers.
There's so much parity in the league right now that 3's are going
to be common.
And, oddsmakers have had several weeks to sharpen up their opening totals.
CLEVELAND AT NEW ORLEANS: Colt McCoy will get the start again for Cleveland.
The Browns got early support at +14, and we're now seeing +13 everywhere.
The total has dropped a point or 1½ points off an opener of 44½.
BUFFALO AT BALTIMORE: Big move on the total here,
with an opener of 37
jumping up to 40. Baltimore tends to run up the score at home.
Sharps didn't want to lay two touchdowns with them..
.but are basically investing in the Ravens offense anyway by betting
Over the low total.
SAN FRANCISCO AT CAROLINA:
The total is up a point from 34½ to 35½.
I'm hearing this is a math move from the computer guys.
ST. LOUIS AT TAMPA BAY:
Tampa Bay is sitting at -3 right now because of early support
at -1½ on the opener. The total hasn't moved.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE:
Some support for Seattle at -6 because of Arizona's poor road play.
We're seeing 6½ now. Some of that was position taking though on the
assumption the public would drive the line up to a touchdown.
Wouldn't be surprised to see some buy back form sharps if the game moves to seven.
NEW ENGLAND AT SAN DIEGO:
The total has dropped from 49 down to 47½.
A lot of guys out here love betting Unders on anything at 48 or higher.
San Diego's also had some trouble turning their stats into points because
of turnovers and other issues.
OAKLAND AT DENVER:
Denver was hit at -7, and is up to -8.5 because of skepticism
about Oakland's quarterback situation.
I wouldn't be surprised if this moves to -9 just
because sports books want to discourage two-team teaser action
on Denver at less than a field goal.
The total has dropped from 44 down to 41.5 on the same quarterback issues.
MINNESOTA AT GREEN BAY:
No meaningful action on the total yet, which opened at 44.
NY GIANTS AT DALLAS:
The total is down a tick in the Monday Night game, from 44.5 down to 44.