Week 8 YTD 15-14 +$560 GOY this week

[mark12]

$1000


Love this game. And 5dimes has it at -3.

The pro game of the year for me is of course...

HOUSTON

More later.

[RanPicks]

Sure hope AJ is healthy...

[mark12]

Originally Posted by RanPicks

Sure hope AJ is healthy...

Kubiak was on local radio yesterday and said he expects him to be ready. Weather could be a little concern but just don't see the Texans taking a step back right now. Schaub looks strong in the short passing game so even if the weather is bad like him a whole lot more than Edwards back up.

[Slammer]

On the surface, I would agree, the Bills' recent wins seem to be more as a result of opportunism as opposed to solid, consistent play, so how long can that mirage keep going?

However, the way to move the ball on the Bills is on the ground, and the Texans don't have the great ground game to take advantage. Slaton hasn't done much of anything this year rushing the ball, which in itself is bad, but even worse, he has become one of the league's great fumblers, so if anything, his presence could be a negative.

So now Texans will likely have to throw vs a team that is fourth in pass % allowed, and are tied for the league lead in INT.

Statswise, Edwards > Fitzpatrick, better completion numbers and overall rating, but Fitzpatrick provides some vertical threat and has been able to make the key big play downfield that Edwards never seemed able to do.

Texans are no doubt the better team, and certainly are good enough to win this game, but there are more than a few things that suggest that they could just as easily stumble in this spot.

[RanPicks]

Schaub is my fantasy QB... and I root for Houston when not playing Dallas...

cool - just was curious as to his status.

GL

[mark12]

Originally Posted by Slammer

On the surface, I would agree, the Bills' recent wins seem to be more as a result of opportunism as opposed to solid, consistent play, so how long can that mirage keep going?

However, the way to move the ball on the Bills is on the ground, and the Texans don't have the great ground game to take advantage. Slaton hasn't done much of anything this year rushing the ball, which in itself is bad, but even worse, he has become one of the league's great fumblers, so if anything, his presence could be a negative.

So now Texans will likely have to throw vs a team that is fourth in pass % allowed, and are tied for the league lead in INT.

Statswise, Edwards > Fitzpatrick, better completion numbers and overall rating, but Fitzpatrick provides some vertical threat and has been able to make the key big play downfield that Edwards never seemed able to do.

Texans are no doubt the better team, and certainly are good enough to win this game, but there are more than a few things that suggest that they could just as easily stumble in this spot.

See it just the opposite. I think the reason thier pass defense looks OK is two fold, first because they have only played 2 good QB's and 5 pretty weak ones and secondly when you have the worst run defense in the league everyone exploits that thus the better looking pass defense numbers. Besides that Schaub is the league leader in passing yards and Johnson the leader in receiving so I don't think Buffalo has an answer for those two unless the weather comes into play. Buffalo better pray for a very windy day.

As for the Texans running game opponents Arizona, Cincy, San Fran and Tenn. are all top 10 run defenses and I think Buffalo is just what the doctor ordered for Slaton who was a top back last year and will get it going this week against a horrible Bills run defense.

As we have probably found out at one time or another as gamblers there are no sure things but I really like the Texans in this spot.

[cptkirk321]

Originally Posted by mark12

See it just the opposite. I think the reason thier pass defense looks OK is two fold, first because they have only played 2 good QB's and 5 pretty weak ones and secondly when you have the worst run defense in the league everyone exploits that thus the better looking pass defense numbers. Besides that Schaub is the league leader in passing yards and Johnson the leader in receiving so I don't think Buffalo has an answer for those two unless the weather comes into play. Buffalo better pray for a very windy day.

As for the Texans running game opponents Arizona, Cincy, San Fran and Tenn. are all top 10 run defenses and I think Buffalo is just what the doctor ordered for Slaton who was a top back last year and will get it going this week against a horrible Bills run defense.

As we have probably found out at one time or another as gamblers there are no sure things but I really like the Texans in this spot.

As much as I would love to see my Bills lose this week and every week to hopefully get Mr Wilson off his duff and get rid of this coaching staff, unfortunately these are the type of games that they seem to bite people in the ass.

But just to clarify a couple of points you made, yes their run defense has not been very good at all but this hasn't stopped teams from still passing against them in fact the Bills are in the top 10 or so of the NFL of pass plays against/game but are actually number 4 in the NFL in pass completion percentage allowing only 54.7% pass completions(only the Jets, Saints, and Pack have a lower pass completion percentage against) How good a pass defense in my opinion is not based on yards because you are right if a team is horrible against the run then teams will exploit that and it will affect the yardage in the passing game and the best number to guage a pass defense is pass completion % against.

Good luck to you, like I said for both of our sakes I truly hope my Bills lose this week.

[mark12]

Originally Posted by cptkirk321

But just to clarify a couple of points you made, yes their run defense has not been very good at all but this hasn't stopped teams from still passing against them in fact the Bills are in the top 10 or so of the NFL of pass plays against/game but are actually number 4 in the NFL in pass completion percentage allowing only 54.7% pass completions(only the Jets, Saints, and Pack have a lower pass completion percentage against) How good a pass defense in my opinion is not based on yards because you are right if a team is horrible against the run then teams will exploit that and it will affect the yardage in the passing game and the best number to guage a pass defense is pass completion % against.

Thanks capt. for the well wishes. Once again I think the number of pass attempts against numbers are skewed due to the fact that Buffalo has no offense and thus teams end running alot more plays against them so they probably have higher attempts against in both categories.

As for completion percentage against (Jet- Sanchez QB rating 61.5, TB-Leftwich 71.2, Car-Dellhomme 56.5, Clev. Anderson 40.6, Mia. Henne 76.5) most good college teams could shut that group down so don't put much stock in that stat. Schaub and the Houston receivers much tougher test than what Buffalo is used to seeing in my opinion.

[cptkirk321]

Like I said I do hope they win for both of our sakes but I will throw one more out there that you missed

NewOrleans at Buffalo

Drew Brees 55.2 completion %, 0 TDS, QB rating of 72.8 for the game.

As for those others you mention, yep you are right its not like they have played Montana, Elway, Marino, etc. but when I cap a game and am looking at truly getting the real picture when it comes to something like QB rating I will compare what their season number is based on the performance against this defense to see do they keep the QB below his yearly average, above or close to what it is and their results are more based on who rather than what they have accomplished. So for the ones you threw out there

Sanchez 61.5 (against the Bills 8.3)
Leftwich 71.2 (against the Bills 73.4)
Delhomme 56.5 (against the Bills 55.6)
Anderson 40.6 (against the Bills 15.1)
Henne 76.5 (against the Bills 92)
Brees 106.9 (against the Bills 72.8)
Brady 99.9 (against the Bills 73.6)

So against these Bills two of those QBs were pretty much the same as their yearly average, one better than his average but to be fair for my Bills in that game against Miami they were just out there for pretty much 2/3s of the game because the offense was so damn brutal and 4 of them were well below their yearly numbers including the top two QBs they have faced in Brees and Brady.

Just some food for thought that is all. Again good luck to you.

[mark12]

Originally Posted by cptkirk321

Like I said I do hope they win for both of our sakes but I will throw one more out there that you missed

NewOrleans at Buffalo

Drew Brees 55.2 completion %, 0 TDS, QB rating of 72.8 for the game.

As for those others you mention, yep you are right its not like they have played Montana, Elway, Marino, etc. but when I cap a game and am looking at truly getting the real picture when it comes to something like QB rating I will compare what their season number is based on the performance against this defense to see do they keep the QB below his yearly average, above or close to what it is and their results are more based on who rather than what they have accomplished. So for the ones you threw out there

Sanchez 61.5 (against the Bills 8.3)
Leftwich 71.2 (against the Bills 73.4)
Delhomme 56.5 (against the Bills 55.6)
Anderson 40.6 (against the Bills 15.1)
Henne 76.5 (against the Bills 92)
Brees 106.9 (against the Bills 72.8)
Brady 99.9 (against the Bills 73.6)

So against these Bills two of those QBs were pretty much the same as their yearly average, one better than his average but to be fair for my Bills in that game against Miami they were just out there for pretty much 2/3s of the game because the offense was so damn brutal and 4 of them were well below their yearly numbers including the top two QBs they have faced in Brees and Brady.

Just some food for thought that is all. Again good luck to you.

Lets concentrate then on Brees and Brady the only 2 in Schaubs class. First you are a little off on the QB rating for that game against Brady. His rating was 97.8 with 378 passing yards and 2TD's.

Brees had a fairly meaningless game with N.O. obviously game planning to exploit the run defense and running for 3 TD's against the weak Bills run defense. Still completed 55 % with no TD's but also no picks either.

Houston will probably go more of the Brady route in my opinion.

[cptkirk321]

Yep you are right when I was putting down those numbers last night I must of looked at his completion percentage instead of his QB rating and since I knew that in the first half of that game his QB rating was in the 70's it never occured to me that I was looking at the wrong number.

As for weather this Sunday right now the early forecast is calling for a 30% chance of showers with 20mph winds and mid 40's temp.

[cuse_man]

brady was nowhere near himself in that bills game though.. I think we can all agree on that, and I do not think it was because of the bills defense..

[mark12]

Originally Posted by cuse_man

brady was nowhere near himself in that bills game though.. I think we can all agree on that, and I do not think it was because of the bills defense..

I agree if he had been himself he may have passed for about 450 and 4 TD's.

[cuse_man]

guess I should check this out since I had carolina beating the bills last week lol

[Stud50]

Houston -3, whats not to love?! seems like the ultimate trap bet IMO....