What does it mean?

[TheVagueIdea]

The purpose of this is to learn a bit about capping for myself (and hopefully it'll enlighten a few others). I've been following this forum and a couple others for quite a while and I've learned a ton, but I just want to see if someone can clarify a thing or two so I can become a smarter capper....

Last night (MNF) the Titans were clearly the public play. Every casual bettor was all over Tennessee and it seemed like a pretty 'square' play in the eyes of the mall. The line stuck at 3 and didn't budge all day long, and to top it off, Pinnacle was offering + money on the Titans.

So the books are begging for action on the Titans up the last minute, even though they are probably LOADED with action already. My question is WHY?

Are the books really trying to play the game themselves and willing to risk losing their asses to destroy the public? Why not even the action just a little bit towards kickoff to give themselves some cushion?

Every forum I visit was ALL OVER Jacksonville....probably 90% or more. Titans are a better squad on paper, so I'm assuming every capper was basing their wager on the line and public %.

Is it smart to put this much weight into the above factors? How often will Vegas load up on one side like this and take a beating? Enlighten me!

[CJLNYU]

Given the result I think the titans were the smart play last night

hope this helps

[Kramer]

This isn't about capping a particular game , but to help understand
sports books vs cappers

Suppose a total of $11,000 is risked by bettors to win $10,000 on a favorite,
but only $5,500 is risked by bettors to win $5,000 on the underdog..
.Look what happens:


If the dog wins, the book makes a profit of $6,000.
He keeps the $11,000 risked by bettors on the favorite,
and pays the underdog bettors their profit of $5,000.

If the favorite wins, the sports book loses $4,500.
He keeps the $5,500 risked by bettors on the underdog,
and pays the favorite bettors $10,000 in winnings.

Essentially, then, in that example, the sports book is risking $4,500
in order to win $6,000.

In that particular case, he actually breaks even if he can win only 42.9 percent
of his 'bets.'

Rather than laying $110 to win $100, as is the case with sports bettors,
the sports book is in effect laying only $75 to win $100!


Those are very, very big odds in favor of the house.
To the house, when bettors have risked twice as much
on one side as the other, every bet is 133!

In order for you and me to win $6,000
we'd have to risk $6,600 - not $4,500.
Now do the math with 90 % - remember , its not 1 game ,
but a season of games..

Lets say 15 games have 85% on the favorite?

What’s th’s the sports book break even point?

[cuse_man]

Originally Posted by Kramer

This isn't about capping a particular game , but to help understand
sports books vs cappers

Suppose a total of $11,000 is risked by bettors to win $10,000 on a favorite,
but only $5,500 is risked by bettors to win $5,000 on the underdog..
.Look what happens:


If the dog wins, the book makes a profit of $6,000.
He keeps the $11,000 risked by bettors on the favorite,
and pays the underdog bettors their profit of $5,000.

If the favorite wins, the sports book loses $4,500.
He keeps the $5,500 risked by bettors on the underdog,
and pays the favorite bettors $10,000 in winnings.

Essentially, then, in that example, the sports book is risking $4,500
in order to win $6,000.

In that particular case, he actually breaks even if he can win only 42.9 percent
of his 'bets.'

Rather than laying $110 to win $100, as is the case with sports bettors,
the sports book is in effect laying only $75 to win $100!


Those are very, very big odds in favor of the house.
To the house, when bettors have risked twice as much
on one side as the other, every bet is 133!

In order for you and me to win $6,000
we'd have to risk $6,600 - not $4,500.
Now do the math with 90 % - remember , its not 1 game ,
but a season of games..

Lets say 15 games have 85% on the favorite?

What’s th’s the sports book break even point?

Add in the fact the bstards like to limit the guys who do win