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  #1  
Old 02-05-2010, 12:04 PM
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What this prop say about the game....

At Pinny, there's a prop for

Does team score last win the SB?

Yes -210
No +170


This tells me it will be a close game to the end.
If this game is a blow out, the losing team will score on garbage time. Therefore, line should be more even.
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  #2  
Old 02-05-2010, 12:49 PM
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just bet cointoss TAILS!
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  #3  
Old 02-05-2010, 02:31 PM
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I personally believe most props are designed to penalize the OVER and YES answers, simply because when watching a game like this it's not much fun rooting for things not to happen...much more exciting when they do happen and you can let out a big cheer

Are the odds that the game is so close that the last score wins really correct at 1-2 payback? No way, your analysis is correct and it is at least as likely a team is winning by enough to simply try and hold on

NO is the better value, but may not be much fun to bet imo

props are designed to rope in the casual bettor, beware overthinking what the book means, they are playing to the occasional bettor who doesn't think
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Old 02-05-2010, 10:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GFootsXtreme View Post
I personally believe most props are designed to penalize the OVER and YES answers, simply because when watching a game like this it's not much fun rooting for things not to happen...much more exciting when they do happen and you can let out a big cheer

Are the odds that the game is so close that the last score wins really correct at 1-2 payback? No way, your analysis is correct and it is at least as likely a team is winning by enough to simply try and hold on

NO is the better value, but may not be much fun to bet imo

props are designed to rope in the casual bettor, beware overthinking what the book means, they are playing to the occasional bettor who doesn't think
True, but this is overwhelming. I think this is a great observation.
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  #5  
Old 02-06-2010, 12:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GFootsXtreme View Post
I personally believe most props are designed to penalize the OVER and YES answers, simply because when watching a game like this it's not much fun rooting for things not to happen...much more exciting when they do happen and you can let out a big cheer

Are the odds that the game is so close that the last score wins really correct at 1-2 payback? No way, your analysis is correct and it is at least as likely a team is winning by enough to simply try and hold on

NO is the better value, but may not be much fun to bet imo

props are designed to rope in the casual bettor, beware overthinking what the book means, they are playing to the occasional bettor who doesn't think
Agree, I tailed you and made good money this year. Hope to do the same. My own thought on this game is it will be a low scoring game. Instead of the other team trying to run the ball to keep Payton Manning off the field, this time, it will be the Colts who will be using ball control to keep Brees of the field. At the end, Saints win. So give me the points and the money.
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  #6  
Old 02-06-2010, 11:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by agent318 View Post
At Pinny, there's a prop for

Does team score last win the SB?

Yes -210
No +170


This tells me it will be a close game to the end.
If this game is a blow out, the losing team will score on garbage time. Therefore, line should be more even.


or.....

Team A is ahead 12pts+ w/ not much time

Team B feels forced to go for a TD instead of scoring a FG to draw closer ( less chance of getting a TD than a FG ) or they get the TD go for onside kick and fail which leaves Team B in great position to either score another TD or FG themselves leaving Team B with little chance to respond.

point is.. everyone tries to read into prop lines for whatever reason, and most of the time it just plays mind games with you.

Last edited by cuse_man; 02-06-2010 at 11:28 AM.
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