why open at -14?

[Pap]

Strictly Linewise,

The Giants lost to New England by 3 after being double digit underdogs in week 17.
The Giants, being 3 point underdogs to Tampa Bay, won SU on the road. Then being 7+ underdogs in both road games come across with a SU win in each playoff game.
The Patriots have looked sluggish in the playoffs and have not covered the spread in the last 5 games or so since Vegas has been overvaluing them.

So with all this in public hindsight why would Vegas open the line at -14? Giants sure look hot ATS while the pats don't. Biggest & most bet on game of the year, I think with that line vegas WANTS you to take the Giants. It looks like a freaking GOY to the average joe, thinking 14 is way too much to lay on NE that has not covered their last few games, and especially after their week 17 squeaker and the Giants 3 consecutive ATS and SU wins in the playoffs.

Just thought the line looked a little fishy to me. I know the Giants are hungry and blah blah, but 14 is a lot of wood if you look at the history of the last 5 games for each team.

leaning pats, hard

[Bisket]

same could have been said for the rams/pats super bowl.

You could have used the same logic for the jaguars and chargers games and the pats still didn't cover.

[Steel]

Because Joe Public is in love with the Patriots. The guy who walks in behind you to place his wager asks who is in the SuperBowl. When he hears the Patriots he knows they have won every single game so take the Patriots. Ya look they have to win they are giving 14 pts. The girl who walks into the casino and wants to bet on Brady because she wants to have his cum stains in her underwear. Trust me the 14 pts makes sense to some.

[Jahred]

this week off is NOT good for the Giants IMO.

pats 35
nyg 16

[Back Country]

Lines are set where they are expected to get = $ on both sides, nothing else

[Snowman]

obviously they wanted money on the Giants opening it that high.

Patriots 41-17

[rmaciasl]

got a -11 line now

[Bisket]

straight from the horse's mouth

"The Patriots are still considered by far the best team in the league," said Jay Kornegay, sports book director at the Las Vegas Hilton. "We obviously make that line to get equal action on both sides. To do that, because of the perception of the Patriots, we have to increase their number more than usual."

Bets were flowing in on the Patriots early in the season as they destroyed opponents and the spread, but the team has won by a margin that was larger than the spread only once in their last eight games, said Chuck Esposito, Caesars Palace's assistant vice president of race and sports book operations.

"A game of this magnitude, historically you'll see some money on the favorite," said Esposito, who put the Patriots as 14 point favorites. "I think that's one of the reasons that the number might be a little bit high."

[Pap]

thanks guys, lotta input here


im from NY so all i hear is "NY giants +14 GOY" so nice to hear what other people have to say

[Back Country]

Originally Posted by Snowman

obviously they wanted money on the Giants opening it that high.

Couldnt be more wrong

Books would be out of biz real quick doing that

If they knew who was going to cover and by how much every time, they could just bet the games at other books and not deal with the hassel

bookmaking is a biz, biz is all about profits. Guaranteed profits if you get = $ (or depending, juice payout) on both sides. They would have to be stupid not to try to do so

However, the people who think otherwise do help them get = $ on both sides

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Back Country

Couldnt be more wrong

Books would be out of biz real quick doing that

If they knew who was going to cover and by how much every time, they could just bet the games at other books and not deal with the hassel

bookmaking is a biz, biz is all about profits. Guaranteed profits if you get = $ (or depending, juice payout) on both sides. They would have to be stupid not to try to do so

However, the people who think otherwise do help them get = $ on both sides

I guess we will have to agree to disagree

Sharpest guys that are out there are the guys that set the lines for the books.

While I do agree with your logic in they set the number to get equal action a lot of the time... just not all the time and I believe this is a spot that they want to gamble.

And imo there will be a ton more $$$ on the Giants than the Pats.

[mrwho]

Originally Posted by Steel

The girl who walks into the casino and wants to bet on Brady because she wants to have his cum stains in her underwear. Trust me the 14 pts makes sense to some.

dude did you just give away your capping secrets?

[Steel]

Originally Posted by MrWho

dude did you just give away your capping secrets?

LMFAO....

[Back Country]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I guess we will have to agree to disagree

Sharpest guys that are out there are the guys that set the lines for the books.

While I do agree with your logic in they set the number to get equal action a lot of the time... just not all the time and I believe this is a spot that they want to gamble.
And imo there will be a ton more $$$ on the Giants than the Pats.

Those sharp people use math formulas based on past occurances and public perception (which is actualy mostly incorporated into the math) to set lines


If they wanted to gamble they could go to another book and get a better line

[tomek30]

maybe thats exaclly what the books want to you think and trap you into new england with a little of their reverse psychology