Wild Card Playoffs

[Capt. N-R]

What an interesting weekend..............


There are two things I keep in mind on this weekend...............it is tough on rookie QB's and it is tough on teams that allowed over 350 points in the regular season

3* Falcons +2 -120

Not an easy pick as there has been a huge point shift in Vegas to the Cards...........Falcons who started a 2.5 favorite are now the dogs. Cardinals have allowed 426 points in the regular season. Teams allowing over 400 regualr season points are winless in the NFL playoffs (for history) and the 2000 Rams (who allowed 454) got smoked at New Orleans as a 7 point chalk. And that offense was led by Kurt Warner and ex-Colt Marshall Faulk. Today it's ex-Colt Edge James. Falcons are #2 in rushing and Cards are #32 in rushing. Factor in the horrible defense of the Cardinals and the weak NFC West schedule and there is a definite edge to the Falcons. I respect the difficulty of Ryan playing as a rookie on the road in the playoffs................but Michael Turner is a great help here.

5* Colts -1

Last year Colts were -9 chalk against the Chargers (a huge play of mine on the Chargers). But last year Freeney was out for the Colts. Harrison was banged up. Merriman was suited for the Chargers and Michael Turner was a huge factor for the Chargers.

Colts have struggled early this year. Manning missed camp, Saturday was hurt early, Addai has been dinged and thus the Colts didn't sizzle like normal. But they did run the table.

Chargers went 8-8 and that included 5 wins over the Broncos, Raiders, and Chiefs. LT and Gates are questionable, and the Chargers are weak against the pass.

People see the Chargers finished hot----------but wins against the Raiders, Chiefs, Bucs, and Broncos aren't big wins. They are stepping up in class today...........and it is great to take Manning, a better defense, and a healthier team. For the record, the Colts treated week 17 as an exhibition game and the key players were all resting by the second quarter. The Chargers were in a must win Sunday night and now have to answer the bell six days later.

[rda21]

Good Luck Capt. N-R. Cash em in.

[white_tiger]

gl

[Capt. N-R]

Bitter pill on the Colts! Net punting difference was over 21 yards. Factor that over 6 punts and you have about 125 yards differential. Crazy thing is there were no blocked punts and TD returns skewing the total.

Today

3* Ravens -3 -125

There are reasons to take both sides today. Flacco is a rookie on the road..............but I am going to side with the Ravens for defensive reasons.

The Ravens defense has allowed 260 points or less and this is important. There have been three matchups since 1990 (six teams per conference format era) that involved two teams with 260 or less in the wild card round. Obviously, there was a winner and loser in that game. That have been something like 49 other teams (I may be off one or so) that had 260 or less in the regular season. ALL OF THEM HAVE ADVANCED TO THE SECOND ROUND. ALL OF THEM. MAYBE HALF OF THEM HAD FIRST ROUND BYES. But this 260 mark is either good enough to get a team a bye or good enough to get it one win. EVERY TIME. The Cardinals became the first team to advance yesterday allowing 400 points---but that sample size was like 4 teams. There is too much history here not to take the Ravens----though the Dolphins present lots of problems.

Ravens 20 Dolphins 13

4* Vikings +3

This was a trendy Super Bowl pick in August and I have to take them at home with AP and that defense. Berrian also gives them the deep threat they have missed. Eagles are red hot.........but they are priced high.