Wild Card Weekend...Lets Talk Totals

[Pic n Locs]

Round One Trends
The last 7 seasons the under has produced a 17-11 (61%0 mark. Last yr provided us with 3 of the 4 1st rounders resulting in under's. Although anything is possible, indicated by a 4-0 over run in 2009 but angles normally lead to 1st round low scoring affairs.

O/U team Breakdowns:
Cin @ Hou
These 2 teams met week 14 resulting in a 20-19 Bengals home defeat. The combined total 39 squeaked over the 37.5 mark devastating under betters when T.J Yates (making his 1st start) connected on a TD with 2seconds left tying the game @ 19 up with Rackers knocking threw the PAT ending the affair. Most Vegas shops opened this weekend @ 39 with an adjusted 38.5. You could build a legitimate argument that the total is to high. Both teams have decent D (Texas 17.4 PPG / Bengals 20.2 PPG) In the first affair of the 9 scores only 3 were TD's.

Lions @ Saints
Most Vegas shops list O/U @ 59 but to no real surprise. Week 13 Saints defeated Lions 31-17 staying under (55.5) a game that had the makings to go over with a NOR halftime lead of 24-7. However, Saints only threw up an addition 7 in the last half. This ones tough: Detroit on the road has posted (28.9 PPG) while Saints at home have a (41.1 PPG) mark. Of the Lions 3 games listed O/U 50 or higher totals have stayed under.

Atlanta @ NYG
Another tough 1 to gauge but lets look @ both teams resent out comes. Most Vegas shops have the O/U listed @ 47.5. Of the last 4 games Falcons have averaged (33.3 PPG) cashing on all 4 over Tics. Meanwhile Giants only allowed a 51 point total during there last 3 game stretch, cashing in all under Tics. Manning is 4-3 postseason with all his wins resulting during 2007 Superbowl run. *Note During those 7 playoff games Eli has never tallied more than 24 points.

Pitt @ Denver
Most Vegas shops opened the O/U @ 34.5, currently 33.5. Without surprise this is the lowest O/U of the weekend. Broncos have compiled a 9-7 over mark & 5-3 over while @ mile high. However Denver has conceded 22, 49, 45 & 41 points to the 4 playoff teams they faced during regular season, contributing to the overs. Despite Pitts injury wose, the defense is playing shut down ball. The final 6 games have cashed under's with Pitt only allowing an Ave. of (7.5 PPG) Denver's Miracle backdoor playoff entree was a gift and its hard to imagine Tebow's offence breaking out considering they will be facing the toughest D. they've seen thus far this season.
Arguing "OVER"
Points resulting from turnovers could help make a case for the over. *Note of the 7 playoff games Mike Tomlin has been part off all 7 have gone over.

[bt33]

interesting info that all of Tomlin's playoffs games have gone over, yet I could easily see under's going 3-1 this weekend.

[Pic n Locs]

I agree that most likely 3 of the 4 under's will cash.. Therefor one could play all under's and most likely come out ahead. However, and this won't be a popular pick, I would lean towards the over in Pitt/Den as the only over play.

[JunkyardDog47]

I can see Detroit-New Orleans going over, but not much else. I do not see Denver scoring much aainst Pitt's #1 rated defense, and what is left of Pitt's offense is going to want to run the clock, get their win, and get out of Dodge. I like the under in that game.

[Pic n Locs]

I don t necessarily disagree with your point. My rationel: Odds makers r particularly sharp this time of yr as they have had all season to compile data & new variables to fill into there equations. Furthermore Vegas is acutely aware of the sexy public picks i.e. the OVER in Saints and UNDER in Pitt who isn't playing it. When lope sided wagers occur as well as line movement driven by public belief I find it best to side with the house and wager late to maximize line value. With 90% of the public currently siding with the Saints over (open 59, now 60 & later most likely higher), I ll stand with the house and role the dice with the under. This is true of Pitt with 76% riding the under again I ll side with the house.

[Pic n Locs]

Jdsilk...let me know your outlook if your float'n around

[uva3021]

what do your clients have

[JDSilk]

Very nice breakdown...

Im feeling the defensive breakdowns especially on QBs entering their first playoff game ever (Dalton, Yates, Stafford, Tebow)... I definitely see offensive struggles in these games and defenses needed to bail them out.

QBs that I dont think can be stopped this week are Brees and really thats about it.

Rothlisberger is battered.
Giants Defense should shutdown an inconsistent Ryan
Eli Manning hasn't shown life at all this season

I agree that all unders are good plays this week.

Very nice analysis

[Pic n Locs]

JDSilk... In terms of Sides I Just got off the phone with my buddy in Vegas not to long ago who is pretty sharp. Normally he will wait on second half value after assessing first half play. However, he is Love n Detroit plus the 10.5 from the gates. It should be interesting, I d tend to side with the under 1st...Regardless i feel that one or the other should probably land if not both.