Winner's Edge AFC Championship ATS Pick

[Boris Karloff]

Point Spread: Patriots -7
Total Line: 50.5



Ravens pass rush has been absent in recent games.
Baltimore prevailed 20-13 over a game Houston team last Sunday, turning four TOs into 17 points. It was also their 7th victory in their past eight contests. New England was dominant from start to finish in a 45-10 pasting of Denver last Sunday. It was their 9th-straight victory and featured a record-tying six TD passes from QB Tom Brady.

The Ravens want to run the ball behind RB Ray Rice but he had tough sledding against the Texans last week (21 carries, 60 yards). The Patriots front seven isn’t nearly as good as Houston’s but they bottled up the Broncos’ gimmick offense very well last week. They have to be wary of Rice when he is a receiver as well though he didn’t fare well at that last week either (4 catches for 20 yards). Baltimore will test this secondary deep with rookie WR Torrey Smith but we feel QB Joe Flacco will be looking to WR Anquan Boldin and TEs Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson more frequently. The Patriots ranked 31st vs. the pass this season but are bolstered by the return of SS Patrick Chung from injury. Flacco was average last week (14-27, 176 yards, 2 TDs) and historically hasn’t played his best ball on the road. He was also sacked five times. New England’s defense wasn’t tested last week by the unconventional Denver offense but they must contain Rice to have a real chance at stopping this offense.

New England will be looking to pass early and often this week as they pay lip service to the run. TE Aaron Hernandez was actually the leading ballcarrier last week (5-61). The Ravens ranked 2nd in run defense this season and we expect them to give a better performance in this area than they did last week (131 rushing yards allowed). However, stopping New England’s ground game isn’t the issue. Brady is coming off one of the best performances of his career and he is very focused on getting his team back to the Super Bowl. We expect Hernandez and fellow TE Rob Gronkowski to pose a lot of problems for a defense that isn’t known to have great cover LBs. ILB Ray Lewis is a sure-fire Hall of Famer and maybe the best to ever play the position but he will be outmatched if he has to play in coverage against this offense. WR Wes Welker will command attention and Brady isn’t shy about spreading the ball around. There may even be a WR Chad Ochocinco sighting in this game. Baltimore totalled zero sacks last week and if OLB Terrell Suggs isn’t getting consistent pressure, there is no pass rush. Look for New England to give LT Matt Light help if he has trouble with Suggs early on.

ATS Pick
Baltimore was 9-0 SU at home this season but only 4-4 SU/ATS on the road. They lost to some bad teams and just don’t play well away from M&T Bank Stadium. New England, on the other hand, is playing very well (averaging 37.3 points-per-game during their winning streak) on both sides of the ball. As bad as the Pats have been in giving up yardage, they ranked 15th in scoring defense this season. New England also has a big edge in special teams play and no one is better than HC Bill Belichick at drawing up schemes and then adjusting them during the game. This number has been coming down and we feel very good in laying the points and going with a very determined and focused group of Patriots.

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Take the Patriots
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