Winner's Edge Best Bet ATS Pick

[Boris Karloff]

Betting Odds:
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Point Spread: Patriots -13.5
Total Line: 50



Tom Brady will have to be at his best to make up for his team's weak defense.

Denver needed just one play in OT to secure a 29-23 victory over Pittsburgh last Sunday. New England had a 1st-round bye last week. The Patriots won the Week 15 matchup 41-23 behind three game-changing TOs in the 2nd quarter.

Broncos QB Tim Tebow is coming off the biggest game of his short career as he threw for 316 yards on only 10 completions last week. He didn’t throw any interceptions and didn’t throw any in the first matchup between these teams. Tebow likes to throw left and that is where CB Kyle Arrington (team-leading 88 tackles and 7 picks) plays. Tebow has to watch for Arrington jumping routes. WR Demaryius Thomas caught four passes for 204 yards and the game-winning score last week and also had seven catches for 116 yards in the first meeting. Tebow will look his way early and often and his size and speed will give this defense trouble. WR Eric Decker (knee) isn’t expected to play meaning WRs Eddie Royal and Matthew Willis have to step up. Denver rushed for 167 yards in the 1st quarter of the earlier game and they will look to duplicate that type of success this week. Tebow appears to be becoming a more judicious runner and RBs Willis McGahee and Lance Ball form a solid duo. The Patriots pass defense ranked 31st this season but they did force 34 TOs. They also lack a dynamic pass rush but DE Mark Anderson did post 10 sacks in a reserve role.

Patriots QB Tom Brady threw for 5,235 yards this season, shattering the old mark of Dan Marino but falling short of Drew Brees’ new record of 5,476. His 39 TD passes were his second-best total for a season. What these numbers mean is that the Broncos secondary will have their hands full. The unit’s play has gone down since S Brian Dawkins went down and he’s not expected to play this week. TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and WR Wes Welker have been dynamite this season and Brady will throw to whichever one is open. Pittsburgh had success earlier this year jamming them at the line of scrimmage and we think Denver will try to do the same this week. Rookie OLB Von Miller was playing with one hand in the first matchup but is better now. With DE Elvis Dumervil on the other side, Denver should have a good pass rush to bother Brady. New England averaged 110 yards-per-game on the ground this season and prefers to move the ball through the air.

ATS Pick
New England usually has a big advantage in their games as they usually intimidate their opponents with their high-scoring offense. Don’t look for Denver to fall into that category as they believe they can win this game. They led 16-7 in the first matchup before TOs turned the game around and took them out of their comfort zone. Tebow should be able to make plays against this defense and we feel they will have success on the ground as well. The Patriots are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a double-digit favorite and have lost their last three playoff games. Brady will put up numbers but we feel the Broncos can keep the score close with their pass rush, running game and with a few deep shots sprinkled in.

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Take the Broncos
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[BOBBYW]

gl..

[TNell]

GL. I totally agree.