Winning vs Covering

[Yankee23]

There has been 48 games played so far this season

In only 6 games has the winner not covered the spread

Margain stands at 42-6 through the first 3 weeks, winner/covering

Interested to see how this week turns out with the higher lines

[jaguilar]

thats right 4 in week 1, 1 in week 2(was win no cover vs stl), 1 in week 3 (minny vs sf last second)
usually occurs at a high rate each year
with this strategy pick who you think will win SU and win ATS also.
your right there might be a few more this week. maybe

[Yankee23]

Spread came into play in 2 games

Winners go 12-2 ATS and stand at 55-8 for season

[jaguilar]

Originally Posted by Yankee23

Spread came into play in 1 game

Winners go 13-1 ATS and stand at 55-7 for season

actually i think there were 2 Yankee.(12-2 ats)

cincy and was both won but lost ats right?

[Pap]

its been favorites and over week in and week out

[Yankee23]

Originally Posted by jaguilar

actually i think there were 2 Yankee.(12-2 ats)

cincy and was both won but lost ats right?

I stand corrected...thanks jag

Forgot about the mess in Cleveland

[Romanowski]

this is true and we are starting to see less parity than years past

with huge favs covering, I want to see huge lines out of the books this week

but anyway this stat is misleading, even in a larger data set...

its known that [favs cover and dogs win outright] - roughly 85%

problem is its not easy to pick SU winners either, so knowing that stat isnt gonna help much IMO

weird first couple weeks in the NFL so far

[Pap]

wonder which week the public gets crushed this year

we have 4 spreads that are 10 or higher...but the one that stands out for me this week besides oakland at 16 is indy at -3. 0-4 tennessee beeen getting torched left and right while colts have been blowing opponents out left and right 4-0

i realize its a division rivalry, and a very important game for the titans, but still it seems fishy. i gotta check if finnigan and co. are back in the secondary

[jaguilar]

Originally Posted by Romanowski

this is true and we are starting to see less parity than years past

with huge favs covering, I want to see huge lines out of the books this week

but anyway this stat is misleading, even in a larger data set...

its known that [favs cover and dogs win outright] - roughly 85%

problem is its not easy to pick SU winners either, so knowing that stat isnt gonna help much IMO

weird first couple weeks in the NFL so far

i agree that there is less parity. To me it seems like the public and favorites are covering more often. college fb seems to be more anti public because of more changes to the roster. But in my opinion this stat is helpful because you are just trying to pick who you think is going to win the game and they will cover 80% of the time. Although your right, picking the su winner is not always that easy but the percentages are on your side especially with bigger favorites. Yeah it will be interesting to see at what point some big dogs will start covering but not win su.