Would You Win More Money Betting Games If...

[vegasjack2]

Hey Guys,

Doing my weekly column for The Sports Network, and I wanted to get some input from people around in the forums.

This week is the 15th anniversary of Offshore Online Sports Betting, so I am doing a couple pieces based on the history of sports betting.

I have a question hopefully some of you would like to answer.

The point spread was not invented until the year 1940. Assuming the point spread was never invented today, and you could only bet a team on the money-line. Would you win more money betting games? Would you be a more successful handicapper? Would it change the way you handicapped games?

To me, the answer is YES I would be more successful and NO it would not change the way I handicap games. I have been doing this for a living for over three years and I have worked on the other side of the counter in the industry for nearly a decade. I feel the first thing you should ever think of when handicapping a game is, who is going to win the game. If you are not 100% confident in who is going to win a game straight-up, how can you logically handicap a game. Obvious argument that will be put up here is, well, the line shows value one way or another. Yes, this may be true, but lets say the line is +4.5, you are leaving yourself far to small a window to work with if you are uncertain of a winner. The most likely outcome in a football game is a win by 3 points. That means the most likely outcome is a cover by 1.5 points. Do you really feel confident betting with only a point and a half? Are you sure there is no other game where your edge may be bigger? The handicapping process should always be, which team wins, then by how much.

Now I realize that money-line betting increases your BEP through the roof, and the odds are piled up against you. However, would you not feel more confident going into a Saturday or Sunday card knowing that you simply have to, pick a winner? I can assure you that we would all watch games VERY differently.

Remember, the point spread only matters in roughly 17% of all NFL games and slightly less in college. The team that covers the point spread also wins outright in more then 80% of the games.

I would also have to think that playing strictly money lines with no options to play the spread, there would be ALOT more people playing with house money each week then trying to claw back to even.

And for you underdog happy bettors, you would all be drooling over the jacked up prices that would be available.

Let me know what you guys think, hopefully this can strike a healthy debate.

Would you win more money each week if the point spread still didn't exist?

[ParrotHead]

Money line odds seem out of price for most teams. Risk a lot to win a little or Risk a little to win a lot.

[pwherr]

I would get more right and win less money. I would also play a lot less. To much risk without high reward.

[Chicago RED]

Originally Posted by pwherr

I would get more right and win less money. I would also play a lot less. To much risk without high reward.

Agree 100% Yeah you know a team like Bosie State is gonna win Vs. a bad team But who would want to risk -10000 to win $100, Or -500 or -900 in NFL. If they never had the spread and Just ML you would have to get more teams correct like call 20 in a row, and if you miss one, your shot.

[vegasjack2]

Would you still gamble if it was moneyline only betting?

[RuffleMaker]

I would bet differently that is for sure. More dogs than ever before.

[Romanowski]

relatively speaking risking 300 to win 100 is a great return

most are just programmed to think lay 110 to win 100 and see it as low reward

a stock gives you a 33% return you are rich

[kermit]

Moneyline betting does produce more winners, this week was a good example where 11 of 13 favorites won but didnt all cover the spread (NE got me on the spread and cost me 4k in winnings) but its a great point that the money line value is hard to find compared to the return on the PS odds.

PS has changed the way that we look at value on gambling, if we take the ML odds and take the smaller gains I think we would all come out further ahead but it would take alot longer

I personally would gamble with no spreads and when the bank roll gets low its exactly what I look for to build it back up, good value on straight up picks

[JETMAN]

AWAYS LOOK TO THE RIGHT ON SPREADS,NOT THE LEFT,FAV SIDE LOL,YOU FIND YOUR WINNERS ON THE RIGHT SIDE,YOU SHOULD ONLY BET THE DOG IF YOU THINK THEY CAN WIN,LOOK AT BASEBALL NO POINT SPREAD,ALL YOU GOTTA DO IS PICK THE WINNER,I DONT SEE ANY MILLIONAIRES,NOT SO SIMPLE.AND THATS WHY I LOVE BASEBALL PARLAYS HUGE PAYOUTS

[akillies]

its all math, i wager on what ever i get the best number at

[uva3021]

I'd say 0% of the time do I only bet on underdogs I think can win