You Can Get GB, NE, PIT, NYJ ML Parlay at 25/1 This Week

[vegasjack2]

I am not being deceitful. I confess, there is more to this then the title indicates, but there is in fact a way to increase your parlay payouts by 25x. For those of you unaware, north of the border in Canada there is a government run sports lottery called Sports Select. The odds are appalling and the player is at a colossal disadvantage due to house rules. There is one part of this idiotic charade called Pools. If played correctly, Pools presents an exceptionally profitable betting opportunity each Sunday. The goal of Pools is to predict the outcome of each NFL game per week straight up, no point spread. The cost for a single entry is $5. Your money goes into a prize pool. If you have the highest winning total of the week (usually 16/16 or 13/13) you win the prize pool. Focusing on the OLG this season (Ontario Lottery) the average weekly prize pool is $691,860. The average payout is $64,740 after ties.

As soon this was brought to my attention, I was immediately turned onto the idea of finding a way to put the odds in the players favor. A money-line parlay of 13 teams who are all underdogs would not get close to the average payout of 13,000/1 at an offshore book. There was so much lee-way to work with, there had to be a way, and I found it.

Now I can guarantee with every dollar I have to my name that this has been thought of before. However, I can guarantee that no one has ever looked at it like I do. This is for two main reasons. One, if you bet offshore, you are smart enough to realize how stupid you ever were for even considering playing sport select. On the contrary, if you play sport select, you are too stupid to know what you are missing online. End of the day, 98% of the players playing sports select have no idea what they are missing online in terms of pricing. Two, I do not believe that anyone has had the balls or the time to do what I am planning to do.

When you go to purchase a pools ticket, you have a few options. Playing a regular play, picking all the games straight up for $5. Or you can choose to box up to a max of four games for a price of $80. Boxing a game means that regardless of the side that wins, you win that game. In essence, boxing 4 games in a 13 game week makes this a 9 team parlay rather then a 13 team parlay, only hitch is that it costs $80 rather then $5. Here is what got me thinking. What if you were able to box say, 9 games? That would leave you with only four straight up winners to pick. No point spreads, just winners. Does not seem too hard does it? Consider the following…

This strategy would only work for the weeks with teams on bye weeks. weeks five, six, seven and eight. With week five in the books, that leaves this week and the remaining two in October. Once November comes, this is out the window.

In order to effectively “Box” nine games, you would have to play 512 tickets. There are 512 possible outcomes in a 9 game parlay. If you are skeptical on the math, here is how to figure that tally out.

If there is a two game parlay, you can choose home or away in each game. Therefore the possible outcomes are H+H, H+V, V+V, V+H. The mathematical formula is 2^n. The number 2 represents the potential outcomes, n represents the number of legs. For you non mathematically capable, the ^ is to the power of. Do this for a three team parlay. 2^3=8. Do it for a four team parlay 2^4=16. If you must write out the home and away possibilities, it is correct.

In order to buy 512 tickets the price would be $2560. Before we jump to far ahead, lets recap this part a little bit.

There would be 512 tickets purchased at $5 a ticket for a price of $2560. Each ticket would have a set of identical four games with moneyline/outright win outcomes. Along with those four games there would be every other possible outcome in the other nine games meaning that if the four games picked come through, somewhere in the stack of 512 tickets, there is a winning ticket.

If you are questioning where the value lies in this, or what the point is. Look at this breakdown.

Lets use Sunday’s games as example.

My four money-line plays would be, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New England, New York Jets. That money-line parlay at 5dimes pays out 1.25/1. Using the average payout in the Ontario Lottery going back to last season, those four games have a payout of 25.68/1.

If you were to place this wager online, you would be betting $2560 to win $3200.
If you were to place this wager in Pools, you would be betting $2560 to win an average of $64,740

Looking at this from a novice bettors perspective it may not be worth it. After all who wants to lay $2560 on a four team parlay? Looking at this from a professional bettor like myself (10 years experience for a majority of my income) stand point, this is unheard of value.

Now the question you have to ask yourself is this. If you were able to get 25:1 on this parlay. Would you, and for how much would you play it for? I don’t think anyone would turn this offer down.

My question is, how do you figure out the exact combinations for each ticket. Normally this would be easy in a spread sheet if your teams were 1,2,3,4 on the ticket. However, this week GB is 1, Pitt is 2, NE is 10 and NYJ is 13. So on each of the 512 tickets 1,2,10 and 13 are all picked as home. New England listed at 10 really screws up the pattern. I have been able to put 162 tickets into a spread sheet. Is there a method anyone can think of to ensure you have each pattern figured out so you can fill out each ticket?

There are three weeks left to take advantage of this, and I plan to do it. Perhaps we can figure this one out.

[Leafs_Pack_Fan]

Great post. This is something many of us discuss in our Proline forum on this website. By boxing that many games, you are dramatically increasing your odds. Also, Thursday games are not on the Pools card, so Thanksgiving is a good week to try also. A few things to thing about.

Last weeks payout of roughly $61,000 was a bit on the high side. You will have weeks like this, but you will also have weeks where the payout is in the 20-30 range (week 2, 3 and 4)

Also, the OLG only allows a maximum of $100 per customer, per day. So in order to purchase $2500 worth of tickets, you would need to visit 250 retailers to make the purchase.

Good luck, and stop by our forum and let us know if you succeed.

[vegasjack2]

Originally Posted by Leafs_Pack_Fan

Great post. This is something many of us discuss in our Proline forum on this website. By boxing that many games, you are dramatically increasing your odds. Also, Thursday games are not on the Pools card, so Thanksgiving is a good week to try also. A few things to thing about.

Last weeks payout of roughly $61,000 was a bit on the high side. You will have weeks like this, but you will also have weeks where the payout is in the 20-30 range (week 2, 3 and 4)

Also, the OLG only allows a maximum of $100 per customer, per day. So in order to purchase $2500 worth of tickets, you would need to visit 250 retailers to make the purchase.

Good luck, and stop by our forum and let us know if you succeed.

I realize the limitations. I am from Nevada and I am up in Ontario for these three weeks trying to take advantage of this. I have this week pegged for about a $25,000 week. I have been looking at playing in Winnipeg where these limitations do not exist. The prize pool may be smaller, but there are less winners.

[vegasjack2]

Here is what I have so far for my pattern. Notice that games 1,2,10 and 13 are all the same as they are the four games I have locked in on each.

H H H H H H H H H H H H H
H H H H H H H H H H H V H
H H H H H H H H H H V V H
H H H H H H H H V H V V H
H H H H H H H V V H V V H
H H H H H H V V V H V V H
H H H H H V V V V H V V H
H H H H V V V V V H V V H
H H H V V V V V V H V V H
H H V V V V V V V H V V H
H H V V V V V V V H V H H
H H V V V V V V V H H H H
H H V V V V V V H H H H H
H H V V V V V H H H H H H
H H V V V V H H H H H H H
H H V V V H H H H H H H H
H H V V H H H H H H H H H
H H V H H H H H H H H H H

What is the next step from here. For some reason I am at a loss. Do I go with something like,

H H V H H H H H H H H V H
H H V H H H H H H H V V H
H H V H H H H H V H V V H
H H V H H H H V V H V V H
H H V H H H V V V H V V H
H H V H H V V V V H V V H
H H V H V V V V V H V V H
H H V V V V V V V H V V H

The problem with that is that the last one is a duplicate and that there are only 7 combos compared to the 9 I had earlier.

What is the pattern here to get this done.

[Cash Calloway]

Just some things you might want to think about Vegas Jack if you think this is a good play.

The olgs take on the pools is 40% (criminal) so with total pool money hitting $600 000+ there are at least 200 000 tickets out there and a absolute load of them have the favorites including the heavy favorites.

Last year the pools didn't average 60,000 + it dropped a lot lower as I recall. I think it averaged out to 40 000 possibly less by the end of the season and when there are 13 teams despite the 69 000 last week it tends to be much much lower.

You'll hit a winner this week if your 4 big ML winners come through but since there are only 2 other games with 7pt favs you'll need one of those and a bunch of other upsets to get a decent payoff this week.

I have a listing on my computer of favorites at home winning outright. Its not updated but 20 years worth of totals should be enough.
Probability of a 11.5 or greater favorite winning outright 86%. Probability of a 7 point favorite winning outright 74%. Chance of all 4 teams winning outright on any given Sunday 40.5 %.

So with a 5 week window you should win twice (if and a BIG IF you get the same Home teams favoured by those points) but these pools really go down in value when a few decent sized dogs don't come through.

Double digit favs on the road hit with a lower percentage, so what are the odds in those 5 weeks (13 games) you get 4 good home favorites.

Many retailers will take as much money as you throw at them and overlook the silly $100 maximum. They get a very small percentage of each ticket bought and will also get a percentage if you got a winning ticket paying over $990.00

Type in combinations and permutations in google and there should be some software that will spit out your combinations. If not it wouldn't take a long time to write em out. You only gotta do it once.

[vegasjack2]

I have the list finished. I found out that playing four games the same, then boxing four games for $80 a ticket leaves you with five games on each. Five games there is 32 combo's. 80x32=$2560, exact same as playing 512 tickets. 32 tickets, much easier and much safer.

I think I am going to end up playing this in Winnipeg if I decided to go through with it. WCLC has similar payouts to OLG, but the number of winners is always much less. In Ontario I am seeing that 74 split, 24 split, 35 split. WCLC is usually in the single digits. I realize what you are saying about the favorites winning and the prize money going down. The thing I think about is this. Even though everyone is going to have these favorites, look at some of the other games that could go either way. Washington Philly, New Orleans Tampa, Buffalo New York, Chicago Minnesota. More then likely a majority of the people with the big favorites like myself are going to have to pick those games, assuming they don't box them. If I hit the four games, I go perfect. It is tough regardless of the games for a number of people to go perfect only boxing four. I imagine other people do this strategy, but I can't see this prize pool being less then $10,000. Getting even 4:1 in what I feel the worst case scenario, is still a very good bet in my opinion.

[kermit]

I have had the same idea in the past and the only reason that I have not followed through on the plan is there have been weeks where the payout was under 1000.00 thats just in Ontario I havent followed the west coast payouts at all. This season might be the opportunity to take advantage of the pools system as there are alot of teams winning that the general population hasnt accepted into their regular betting habits. You definately need some dogs to hit to have a nice payday...I hope that it works out well for you

[The Nac]

Could just imagine the one crazy idiot last week who thought Seattle s/u was a good idea, and was mocked by his friends. I have weeks like that sometimes, and then it's another favourite that ****s me lol

I love Pools

[Grizzly Joe]

thread from last season...

HOW TO WIN AT NFL POOLS -fer those with money to burn lol

[riviera1992]

Interesting thread. Wayyyyyy out of my league.

[T100]

Originally Posted by vegasjack2

I have the list finished. I found out that playing four games the same, then boxing four games for $80 a ticket leaves you with five games on each. Five games there is 32 combo's. 80x32=$2560, exact same as playing 512 tickets. 32 tickets, much easier and much safer.

I think I am going to end up playing this in Winnipeg if I decided to go through with it. WCLC has similar payouts to OLG, but the number of winners is always much less. In Ontario I am seeing that 74 split, 24 split, 35 split. WCLC is usually in the single digits. I realize what you are saying about the favorites winning and the prize money going down. The thing I think about is this. Even though everyone is going to have these favorites, look at some of the other games that could go either way. Washington Philly, New Orleans Tampa, Buffalo New York, Chicago Minnesota. More then likely a majority of the people with the big favorites like myself are going to have to pick those games, assuming they don't box them. If I hit the four games, I go perfect. It is tough regardless of the games for a number of people to go perfect only boxing four. I imagine other people do this strategy, but I can't see this prize pool being less then $10,000. Getting even 4:1 in what I feel the worst case scenario, is still a very good bet in my opinion.

Prize pool on WCLC has averaged 150Gs the last few weeks. one winner of 156g couple of weeks ago and a 3way split of 56g last week.
here`s a link for ya
Sport Games

You can play WCLC anywhere from manitoba to alberta if your crossing the border.
good luck

[Cash Calloway]

I think I am going to end up playing this in Winnipeg if I decided to go through with it. WCLC has similar payouts to OLG, but the number of winners is always much less. In Ontario I am seeing that 74 split, 24 split, 35 split. WCLC is usually in the single digits. I realize what you are saying about the favorites winning and the prize money going down.

Total you would have won if you had a winning ticket each week on the OLG and WCLC.

OLG=$312 457 WCWL=$271 392 Difference of $41065 in favour of OLG after 5 weeks or 8Gs per week.

A Professional bettor always goes where the highest amount of money is in the pool. $600 000+ for OLG, $150 000 for WCLC. Huge difference if a load of dogs win outright Get on that plane and try to make it over to Ontario as soon as you can.

2 weeks ago the pool was $29444 but Philly lost to San Fran and that was a 9' dog winning outright. Guarantee you lose a load of money playing this way.

[kermit]

I hope that you make out like a bandit against the OLG Jack...its always good when one of us can make a nice score with their money, but this week I'm a little worried for you, after looking at the card carefully and playing one myself (all favorites with a couple boxes) I'm scared for you Jack. This week is one of those weeks where all the favoured teams are home teams and the likelyhood for upset smaller than it has been all year, of course there will be some but in order to get the return on investment that you need for this to work three dogs have to come in that are at least a 5 point dog...its these weeks that have a tendency to end up being 100 winners of 1k. I hope that it works out well for you Jack and some big dogs end up hitting

[vegasjack2]

Rolling at half.

[Mastamind]

did you end up betting the pools?

I know 3 people with a perfect card thus far and have tonight's game boxed.. they boxed 5 games in total

hopefully miami wins straight up for you to make the pot juicier