2008 Draft~~cant wait

[LAyZbOi]

Draft Watch: First round could have record number of freshmen

By Chad Ford
ESPN.com
(Archive)


Updated: January 23, 2008
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Last season's freshman class was one of the most heralded groups in college basketball history. And with reason. In the 2007 NBA draft, the top two picks were freshmen and a total of six freshmen were drafted in the lottery. Overall, eight freshmen went in the first round.

On top of that, a handful of other freshmen, including Chase Budinger, Brook Lopez, Darrell Arthur, D.J. Augustin and Ty Lawson would've been first-round picks if they declared for the draft.

Clearly the NBA's new age restriction is impacting the demographics of the draft. But last season's class was special and everyone knew that going into the season.

Everyone knew this season's freshman class would be special, too. However, I'm not sure anyone was ready to predict that this class could produce more first-rounders than last season's class. But it's a possibility now.

Since July 1, we've been frequently talking about five freshmen -- Kansas State's Michael Beasley, Memphis' Derrick Rose, Indiana's Eric Gordon, Texas A&M's DeAndre Jordan and USC's O.J. Mayo -- as being the top five overall prospects in the draft. But that's just skimming the surface with this class. A plethora of other freshmen could crack the lottery and first round in this year's draft and shatter last year's record.

After talking with numerous NBA scouts and executives, here's a look at the other freshmen who could make some noise come June.


Potential lottery picks



Donte Greene, F, Syracuse
At this point, Greene looks poised to make it six out of six freshmen at the start of the first round. He's drawing some comparisons to Marvin Williams and Rudy Gay with his size, athleticism and ability to shoot. But the truth is, as a freshman, he's already having a more productive season than either Williams or Gay had in college.

Just as importantly, he's also becoming a leader on the team, demanding the ball in crucial situations and delivering for Syracuse down the stretch. He's not quite the talent that Carmelo Anthony was for the Orange, but he's pretty darn good.

We've been steadily moving him up the draft board and he took a big leap in our last rankings, moving all the way up to No. 6 on our latest big board.



Jerryd Bayless, G, Arizona
Everyone knew coming into the season that Bayless' offensive abilities and athleticism made him an excellent prospect. The questions were about his size and position. In high school he was a shoot-first 2-guard, but at 6-foot-3 (and that may be generous) he's undersized to play the 2 in the NBA.

Bayless has been playing the point for Arizona this season with mixed results. He's definitely shown that he can be a big-time scorer -- often stealing the spotlight from Budinger, who is a lottery prospect. He can kill you from long range, midrange, in drives to the basket and at the free-throw line. Bayless, however, has struggled while running the point. He's been turnover prone and struggles to break down defenses in ways other than taking it to the basket for a score. His assist-to-turnover ratio hasn't been great, and at times he has failed to be a leader on the floor.

But scouts have seen enough to believe that he can be a combo guard in the pros. His combination of elite athleticism, shooting ability and quickness makes him an excellent NBA prospect -- one scout compared him to Monta Ellis with a better shot and higher basketball IQ. Another to Gilbert Arenas.

A straw poll of executives found that most had him in the late lottery, which means we've had him ranked a little too low for the past few months. He's moved up on our board.



Kevin Love, C, UCLA
We're cheating a bit on Love. Everyone knows who he is and he certainly hasn't lacked the spotlight as UCLA's starting center. However, there continue to be questions about his NBA abilities.

On one hand, he's got the power and basketball IQ to be a great NBA player. He is an amazing passer and has well-developed moves in the paint for a big guy.

On the other hand, he is very undersized to play center in the NBA and even lacks good size to play the 4 in the pros. He's also had a history of knee problems and weight issues and struggles against long, athletic players.

Scouts continue to have mixed views on him. A handful have him as a top 10 pick, while some have him in the 20s. We've been compromising somewhere in the middle until scouts can answer this question convincingly: What's the difference between Love and UNC's Tyler Hansbrough -- a guy most NBA scouts have ranked as a bubble first-rounder?

The answer has been that Love is bulkier and a smarter player than UNC's standout big man. But does he really possess those attributes to a significantly greater degree than Hansbrough?



Kosta Koufos, C, Ohio State
Koufos came into the season looking like a lock for the top 10 and a possible top 5 pick. Of all the heralded freshmen, he's been the most disappointing. Although his overall numbers are very solid for a freshman, Koufos has come up seriously lacking against major opponents like North Carolina, Michigan State, Illinois and Iowa.

His excellent play for the Greek National team this past summer seems to have carried over only so far. Don't get me wrong, scouts still think Koufos is a terrific prospect with great size, basketball IQ and the ability to stretch the defense with a silky-smooth jumper. But his inconsistency against college big men, lack of rebounding and so-so shot-blocking numbers all have scouts saying he may need to wait another year if he really wants to strike gold in the upper half of the lottery. If he were to declare now, scouts believe he'd go somewhere between the late lottery and mid-first round.



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First-round locks



J. J. Hickson, F, North Carolina State
Hickson is an athletic big man with an NBA frame and the ability to score from 15 feet and in. He's shown good ability as a shot-blocker and a rebounder and has been shooting with extreme efficiency from the field.

Although scouts say he's raw and could use another year in school, the combination of length, athleticism and efficency is usually a potent one come draft time. His stock is harder to judge because of his rawness, but most scouts have him going somewhere in the mid-first round.



Bill Walker, G/F, Kansas State
After putting Walker on the "Who's Not" list at the end of December, he's been on fire, averaging 22.5 ppg over his last five games. Walker's explosiveness is beginning to return and he's showing off a new and improved jump shot. Over his last five games he has hit 13 3s and is shooting 48 percent from beyond the arc.

The combination of Walker's elite athleticism and his improved shooting touch tantalizes every scout. The comparisons to Vince Carter are legit and Walker is beginning to show again why scouts had him ranked as a top 5 prospect in the draft before his ACL surgery last year.

If Walker can continue to produce at this level and find a way to share the ball with Beasley, he has a chance to shoot way up the boards. Questions about the long-term health of his knee may keep him out of the lottery, but Walker is looking more and more like a guy who could have his name called in the teens.



Andrew Ogilvy, C, Vanderbilt
The big man from Australia has been one of the steadiest freshmen in college basketball. He's a throwback player with excellent fundamentals on the offensive end and he has a wide body that allows him to hold his position in the post. He is very tough, has soft hands and is even deadly from the free-throw line; how often do you hear that about a center?

His serious lack of athleticism and quickness and questions about his size and rebounding ability keep him from being an elite prospect -- but there are scouts who see a little Brad Miller in him.

Given the love affair NBA teams have with centers, it looks like Ogilvy would be a lock for the first round if he enters. Whether he can rise higher probably depends on two key workout measurements -- standing reach and athletic ability.



Davon Jefferson, F, USC
Jefferson has been on the NBA radar screen for years and, after a long wait, he's finally at USC and living up to his billing as an athletic forward who could be a game changer in the NBA.

Physically, he has it all: great size, length, a maturing NBA body and elite athleticism both in terms of jumping ability and overall quickness and speed.

Skillwise, Jefferson has a long way to go. He gets most of his points running the floor, slamming home an alley-oop or crashing the offensive boards. He has no 3-point range and just so-so shooting ability from midrange. His ballhandling skills are a problem and he seems to lack great basketball IQ.

Even his upside is tempered by the fact that he's a 21-year-old freshman who failed to qualify academically for college the past two seasons.

Still, Jefferson's raw abilities don't come along very often and he's putting up excellent numbers. That's probably enough to guarantee him a late first-round selection. I spoke with sources close to Jefferson who claim he's leaning strongly toward declaring for the draft this year because of his age. It's probably a smart move from a draft stock perspective, though most GMs feel he definitely could use one more year of school.



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First-round bubble

There's another group of talented freshmen who are seen as not as ready for the NBA. However, scouts believe that these eight players have lottery or mid-first-round potential in the future and could even sneak into the first round if they entered the draft this year. Here are a few quick hits on eight more freshmen to watch.

Austin Daye, F, Gonzaga
Scouts love his potential. His size and ability to score inside and especially from deep draw comparisons to everyone from Dirk Nowitzki to Kevin Durant. His thin frame and relative lack of minutes may keep him from being a high prospect this year unless he really explodes over the next few months. But next year? Expect him to be in the top 10 on our 2009 Big Board.

Blake Griffin, F, Oklahoma
A big, strong low-post beast who might have been a mid-first-round pick if not for his sprained knee in a game against Kansas last week. He's now expected to miss up to four weeks. That still gives him time to come back for March Madness, but he might be better off waiting a year and being a possible lottery pick in 2009. He reminds some scouts of Carlos Boozer.

Anthony Randolph, PF, LSU
A super athletic big man who reminds some scouts a little of LaMarcus Aldridge. He's equally comfortable with his back to the basket or shooting a 15-footer. He even has the ability to put the ball on the floor. He's also shown that he can be a big-time rebounder and shot-blocker. The knock on Randolph is a serious lack of strength. He gets pushed around on both ends of the floor and needs to hit the weight room. Like Daye and Griffin, if he declared, someone would take a chance on him in the first round. But if he stays, he has a chance to be a lottery pick next year.

Nick Calathes, G, Florida
Calathes is already one of the most complete players in college basketball. He can do a little of everything. He can play three positions on the floor, he shoots the lights out with deep range and he has a great basketball IQ. He also leads the SEC in assists. He's not a great athlete and needs to bulk up, but he's already got the rest of the package. Another year leading Florida could put him in the lottery. This year he'd likely be a late first-rounder.

Patrick Patterson, PF, Kentucky
He's already a load in the middle. Patterson has an NBA body and athleticism and uses it to pound the defense into submission. He lacks ideal size at the 4 and is still very raw in the post, but he has the physical tools to be a very good prospect down the road. Another year and he could be a lottery pick. This year he'd probably be a late first-rounder.

Kyle Singler, F, Duke
Singler is a sweet-shooting forward who excels at just about every aspect of the game. He's a great shooter, sure, but he does a little of everything for Duke. He needs to add strength and improve his explosiveness, but he's another great prospect down the road who's already having a big impact for the Blue Devils.

James Harden, G, Arizona State
Harden, on paper, shouldn't be on this list. He's not a great athlete, nor is he particularly gifted as a ball handler or defender. But the guy can flat out score and has a killer jumper. He finds ways to score despite lacking great quickness. He has a number of moves to create space for himself. While he's not quite the marksman that Morris Almond was at Rice, there are some solid comparisons there. He's probably the guy on this list who would struggle to find his way into the first round this year, but down the road, he could be a first-round pick.

Others to watch: James Anderson, G, Oklahoma State; DeJuan Blair, F, Pittsburgh; Gani Lawal, F, Georgia Tech; Johnny Flynn, PG, Syracuse; Corey Fisher, G, Villanova; Austin Freeman, G/F, Georgetown; Manny Harris, G, Michigan; Evan Turner, F, Ohio State

Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider

[Gerk]

After watching last night

Beasley goes Number 1 and the rest is up for grabs.

Minny looks like a good home for him

[Mahowny]

Mayo? Rose? Beasley? Hibbert?

[westcoastO]

Won't be Hibbert, Mayo or Rose imo

[Mahowny]

talkin #1 overall? who's it gona be then huh?

[westcoastO]

Heat would be happy with Rose since Williams is 100 and not quite cutting it anymore. T'Wolves would love Gordon or Mayo as they are lacking in guard scoring to say the least.

[Mahowny]

I think Minnesota, Miami and Seattle would love to have a 7'2 center from Georgetown...

[westcoastO]

more upside to a guy like mayo imo, he has been NBA ready since high school, amazing athlete and his shot already has NBA range

[Mahowny]

oh no doubt! Mayo is my boy...but I think it is hard to pass on a 7+ foot center who can dominate the paint & boards...Miami will need a big man to replace Shaq...and imagine Hibbert at center and Al Jefferson at PF...that's one way to forget about the days of KG and The Kandi Man...haha