3 pnt move play

[T100]

N.O./DEN

This game has moved up to 199.5 from 196.5 since this A.M.
I like the under as the only way that N.O. stays with the nuggets is to play `D` against them. the over hit the other night, but only by 2. Also a play against the public moving this line 3 pnts.

therefore 1 unit (c-note) on the under 199.5

[dave nz]

"The public" don't move lines

[T100]

Originally Posted by dave nz

"The public" don't move lines

Unless you can prove that statement and back it up

**** OFF

[dave nz]

Geez why the bad mood?

Just stating a fact and educating you.

[T100]

What is your basis for your statement

[Rozy]

I always thought a good rule of thumb is if the line is moving a 1/2 pt. at a time it may be the public, but if there is a large movement its a safe bet its a sharp.

NZ can you tell me why its a fact that the public does not move lines? I seriously would like all the education and input I can get on line movements b/c I think it is a useful tool.

Thanks

[dave nz]

Have had many discussions with Bookmaker.com/?cmpid=4437" target="_blank">Bookmakers I know over the years and know from my own betting patterns as well.
Sharps (who make up 5% or so of all bettors) move lines as does information. Generally Non sharps or the public have very little if any influence on line moves.

[T100]

Dave
`sharps`make their move directly before game time as that is when they can get the `sharpest `lines.
this line has been creeping up all day long which is an adjustment to `public` wagering by the Bookmaker.com/?cmpid=4437" target="_blank">Bookmaker and not to an adjustment by the `sharp` bettor as shown below.

Pinnacle Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
04/20/09 11:53:43 AM -6/-104 (Open) OFF
04/20/09 11:58:44 AM -6/-104 196.5 -105 (Open)
04/20/09 1:38:43 PM -6/102 196.5 -105
04/20/09 1:58:43 PM -6/100 196.5 -105
04/20/09 2:03:43 PM -6/101 196.5 -105
04/20/09 4:18:43 PM -6/106 196.5 -105
04/20/09 4:23:43 PM -6/104 196.5 -105
04/20/09 4:38:43 PM -5.5/-104 196.5 -105
04/21/09 2:53:47 PM -5.5/-104 196.5o -109
04/21/09 3:43:44 PM -5.5/-108 196.5o -109
04/22/09 2:03:43 AM -5.5/-110 196.5o -109
04/22/09 10:13:45 AM -5.5/-112 196.5o -109
04/22/09 10:18:43 AM -5.5/-113 196.5o -109
04/22/09 11:08:43 AM -5.5/-113 197o -110
04/22/09 11:13:45 AM -5.5/-113 197o -112
04/22/09 11:18:43 AM -5.5/-113 197.5o -108
04/22/09 11:28:45 AM -6/-104 198o -108
04/22/09 1:13:44 PM -6/-104 198o -111
04/22/09 1:18:43 PM -6/-105 198o -111
04/22/09 1:43:43 PM -6/-105 198o -109
04/22/09 2:13:44 PM -6/-105 198o -107
04/22/09 2:43:44 PM -6/-106 198o -107
04/22/09 3:03:43 PM -6/-106 198 -105
04/22/09 4:03:44 PM -6/-108 198 -105
04/22/09 4:23:48 PM -6/-106 198 -105
04/22/09 4:48:44 PM -6/-106 198o -107
04/22/09 5:23:43 PM -6/-109 198o -107
04/22/09 6:03:46 PM -6/-109 199o -110
04/22/09 6:08:44 PM -6/-108 199o -108
04/22/09 6:13:43 PM -6/-106 199o -109
04/22/09 6:18:44 PM -6/-106 199o -110
04/22/09 6:23:43 PM -6/-106 199o -113
04/22/09 6:28:45 PM -6/-106 199o -110
04/22/09 6:58:44 PM -6/-106 199o -108
04/22/09 7:13:43 PM -6/-107 199o -108
04/22/09 7:18:44 PM -6/-107 199o -110
04/22/09 8:18:47 PM -6/-107 199o -108
04/22/09 8:28:43 PM -6/-106 199o -108
04/22/09 8:58:46 PM -6/-107 199o -108
04/22/09 9:08:43 PM -6/-107 199o -112
04/22/09 9:13:43 PM -6/-107 199o -115
04/22/09 9:33:46 PM -6/-108 199o -115
04/22/09 9:38:45 PM -6/-109 199o -114
04/22/09 9:43:44 PM -6/-110 199o -114
04/22/09 9:53:46 PM -6/-111 199o -114
04/22/09 9:58:43 PM -6/-110 199o -115
04/22/09 10:03:46 PM -6/-108 199o -115
04/22/09 10:08:44 PM -6/-112 199o -116
04/22/09 10:13:47 PM -6.5/-101 199.5o -115
04/22/09 10:18:44 PM -6.5/-103 199.5o -112
04/22/09 10:23:43 PM -6.5/-103 200o -109
04/22/09 10:28:43 PM -6.5/-103 200.5 -105
04/22/09 10:38:45 PM -6.5/-106 200.5 -105
04/22/09 10:43:46 PM -6.5/-108 200.5u -107
04/22/09 10:48:43 PM -6.5/-107 200.5u -110

[dave nz]

They are all sharp clients making those moves (also note pinny has a higher than 5% sharp client base)...... and don't forget many sharps hit lines very early as well as late.

[Seanie Mac]

classic debate as to who moves lines

[T100]

Originally Posted by Seanie Mac

classic debate as to who moves lines

And no winner shall be decided

[justdonating]

A 3pt line move on a total is usually (please note, I said usually) sharps or information or a combination of both. I looked at several so-called "betting information" sites and there hasn't been enough "public" cash to move this total 3 pts.

Another simple reason might be, Denver and the Hornets have played 3 times in Denver this season. The final scores were:

11/27/2008 Thu NOH 105 DEN 101
01/03/2009 Sat NOH 100 DEN 105
04/19/2009 Sun NOH 84 DEN 113

That being said, why would this open at 196.5. The move might be a line correction. Just my 2 cents. I'm on the over!