april 1-15 D-League picks

[mvalentin]

with college ball winding down, i need to waste more of my savings on the NBA now to stimulate the economy.

did a thread for march and did terrible ATS but decent O/U. Did my totals outside of cappers mall posting and actually made more $ on NBA than I did on NCAA (which i focused most of my time on) ,but I won't lie a majority of my bet winnings were based on stolen picks from here

with that being said, committing more time and bankroll now to the NBA hope I don't go bankrupt from now until the playoffs. Using a strict 4 unit system until the end of the regular season

Disclaimer: I am D League when it comes to sports betting, so you might actually make a fortune going against my picks


APRIL 1
Washington Wizards vs Memphis Grizzlies
Over 201.5 1 Unit

Why
- Butler looked good last game
- both teams are in the same league, possibly high pace exciting game for these scrubs
- In their last 7, Washington seems to hit over 100 against teams they match up even against (115 v IND, 108 v CLIP)
- In their last 5, Memphis was only low scoring against teams out of their league: (POR, MIA, BOS) and scored 110+ against teams at their level (GST, SAC)

Why Not
- Memphis back from road swing could actually blow out the injured Wiz
- Butler is still hurt Arenas is in doubt
- Blake Griffin is not in the lineup for either of them, yet
- CBI teams UTEP and Oregon State could beat both of these teams
- Runner that my friend knows put money on the under
- These teams are terrible


Looking into some 2nd Half Bets, hoping to get lower spreads possibly for Lakers, Golden State, and will watch 1st half of NO vs Clips to see how the flow of that game is going

[Chayou44]

Lol "- CBI teams UTEP and Oregon State could beat both of these teams"


funny but not true... lol

[mvalentin]

don't underestimate UTEP

adding 1 play

Los Angeles Lakers
Spread -5½ -110 for 2nd Half
1 Unit

Lakers down by 2, didn't really like the original spread. But 33 pts in the 2nd quarter and Kobe 7 for 7, Lakers need this win more than I need the money

[mvalentin]

2-0 to start april

adding 1 more

Sacramento Kings
Spread +7½ -110 for 2nd Half
1 Unit

Wish I got the original spread but with Technicals on Randolf and Elis and Kevin Martin on pace to get 50, thinking Sacramento can hold on to this and win by at least 1

[iggs111]

great work mv, keep it up

[mvalentin]

cool thanks, messed up with the Sac bet

should never take 2nd half bets unless I get better value on the original line

anyways

Cleveland Cavaliers
Spread -9 -110 for 2nd Half
2 Units

Need the Cavs to win by 1 but they look stoned, but when else am I going to to get a moneyline bet at this value.

[mvalentin]

loss the Cavs play, but not too upset with it because when else am I going to get that value

adding

Utah Jazz/Denver Nuggets
Total Points OVER 109 -110 for 2nd Half
1 Unit

This knocks 2 points off the original Over / Under, hoping that the Jazz improve on their 30% shooting. I don't really see any change in the lead by the Nuggets, but I'm liking how Eric Lewis and Phil Robinson are calling the game in favor of more offense

[mvalentin]

1-1 last night, but lost on my 2 unit pick (Cavs halftime)

3-2 overall (-0.3 units)

Only one look tonight

San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers
Under 200 1 Unit

Why
- Spurs 4-5 O/U in games set at 200+. But the games that went over were all tight games (some going into OT). Hoping that a full Spurs squad will look to blow this out
- With the overachieving Pacers up against a talented Spurs team, they will look to set a pace similar to their recent Dallas and Miami games. They can't expect to win this game playing like they did against Chicago and Washington
- Refs Dan Crawford and Curtis Blair favor the Under, especially when set at around 200
- Spurs love the Under, proven fact, look at it in Wikipedia, I swear


Why Not
- 2nd lowest total that the Pacers have got in the last 10, probably a Vegas response to their 2-8 under streak
- T.J. Ford and Tony Parker get on each others nerves and turn this into a Suns game
- Troy Murphy hits 100 threes, keeping the game closer than it should be. This leads to a 100 point game on both sides or worse... Overtime
- With heavy money on the Spurs, the books need the Pacers to cover, so magically the Pacers could end up blowing this out


Oh and I hate Fridays, hoping that my friends have forgotten me and won't pressure me to go out, so I can watch some games and lay down some 2nd half bets

[mvalentin]

lost above bet

1 unit on Cavs -4 2nd Half

they are playing horrible but I think they can cut it down to 13

[mvalentin]

loss two with the cavs, no one to blame but myself, hope someone faded me for some big bucks

anyways

Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Lakers
Total Points UNDER 210 -110 for Game
1 Unit

Why


1. Phil slows down game for Bynum and the Lakers win in a 110-80 blowout over the hot Nuggets (was at this same matchup in LA in November and thought it would be close, Nuggets just traded A.I. and coming off of Boston and San Antonio upset wins, I heckled Carmelo, I'd like to say I played a big part in this blowout)

2. Hot Nuggets keep the game close where both teams score around 85-95

3. - Denver scoring 110+ in last 6 but the only tough game was against Utah and even in that game J.R. Smith was on fire and the refs were a bit sketchy in the 4th quarter



Why Not
- Game stays close and this goes into OT
- Teams try and throw each other off and it becomes a Warriors Suns game
- Lakers resting up for playoffs and could slack on D
- Officiating Staff slightly in favor of overs when set at 205+

[skins-win-supbwl]

gl to us mv, also picked under