Betting *with* the injured team

[trendon]

There has been an interesting little "trend" (and I put that in quotes because not only do I dislike that word, but - even if I didn't - I can't be entirely sure, that I have noticed over the past three years.

If there is a significant line move and you find out the line move was caused by an NBA team missing a significant player(s), it SEEMS that your best play is to bet WITH the team missing the player(s).

My goal is to try and eliminate the word "seems" and get down to it here.

I noticed this back in the 06-07 season during a Knicks/Miami two game set (over the course of five days)

On 1/22/07, there was a wild line move on the game and I looked to find that O'Neal was out (as had initially been known) but Wade was now definitely out. I remember the line moving nearly two buckets. Result? Heat win by 18.

Four days later, the polar opposite: Wade and O'Neal are back, but Curry and Francis are late scratches. Line moves yet again. Result? Knicks win by 20.

I was working in a bar and the other barkeep and I lost both ends. About a week later, he pointed out another game where the line flew one way because of injuries and we watched as that team absolutely obliterated the healthier opponent.

I bring this up now because I just ran into him again and we started joking about it. I stopped paying attention to it but he hasn't and says it actually has worked well.

Now, right now, this is all anecdotal but has anyone else noticed this (or any games that would apply?)

Thanks for any insight.

[ZoomVT]

i believe GoldenGreek and Bisket have been playing this 'trend' for a while with pretty good success.

[upinya83]

PLEASE READ - VALUABLE WINNING NBA INFO !!! ( no not a nba is fixed thread) LOL

gl

[trendon]

Oh, crap! Thanks. I thought it was going to be one of those "the phone always rings whenever I just sit down things;" you know, it only happens two of ten times but feels like it happens all ten.

Thanks!

[trendon]

Edit: Changed mind, I was wrong on this idea.