Doctor's Prescription for the NBA Finals

[Dr KP]

Los Angeles Lakers to Win NBA Finals (-180)
Risking 1800 to WIN 1000

I am currently 5-0 on all my plays larger than 5 UNITS at CM. My only other 10 UNIT play was Memphis in the Final 4 against UCLA.

I am a Lakers fan but I put all my feelings to the side before I decided to place this wager. I NEVER lay juice like this but just feel like it was a good opportunity. Now I can pick my spots in the series and hope the Lakers come out on top. It has been profitable playoffs run so far so I can absorb this hit without any worries.

To me this series comes down to how Celtics are going to defend Kobe. I keep reading that they will probably use Spurs method in forcing Kobe to beat you with his jumper. Which if his shot is falling, like it did in the series against the Spurs, the Celtics are in for a tough series. The biggest problem with this approach is he’s not taking any pounding and is able to stay fresh on both sides of the court. Everyone points to the fact that the Celtics shutdown LBJ, but we all know that he needs a lot of work on that jump shot. If they take the other approach and decide to pound on Kobe, he will be able to get to the line at will and easily have scoring spurts. The best thing the Celtics can do is hope that Kobe doesn’t shoot like he did against the Spurs, but with Kobe being back on the grand stage, I see another Spurs series repeat.

The Lakers are a versatile team that can play and win in different types of games. When playing against the high octane offense of Denver, they stepped it up and put up 115 points/game. When playing the defense oriented Spurs, they were able to adjust and win games scoring only 89 and 93. This ability will allow Lakers to make whatever adjustments that are needed to win against any style of play by the Celtics.

Everyone talks about the greatness of Celtics defense, but I feel like the Lakers defense is very under-rated. Yes, they allow more points/game, but part of the reason is they play a faster pace game with more possessions. Through the playoffs, the Lakers are allowing 43.34% opponent FG % against 2 very good offensive teams (Denver and Utah), and the Spurs. The Celtics allow 42.15% against a less formidable group of offensive teams (Atlanta, Cleveland, and Detroit).

Last point I would like to make is that the Lakers have shown that they can win on the road in the playoffs. They won twice in Denver, and won a game in Utah and San Antonio. Each of those 3 teams have been excellent home teams with regular season records of 33-8, 37-4 (arguably the best home team in the NBA), 34-7, respectively. I know regular season records don’t mean anything during the playoffs, but these teams know how to win at home. Celtics meanwhile, lost all 3 road games to Atlanta and all 3 against Cleveland. They did win against the Pistons, but I really do feel like the outcome would have been different if Billups had been healthy. I feel like Lakers can make the right adjustments to win in Boston, just not sure if Celtics can do the same to win in Los Angeles.

Lakers will win this series with the league MVP having another great series.

I have a lot more I can add to this and discuss every matchup in the series but need to run. Any feedback is welcomed.

Final Series Prediction
Los Angeles Lakers win 4-2

[FadethePack]

Great write up! Solid reasoning based on logic about the actual game and play of both teams. This makes for a solid wager. Just going to enjoy this series so good luck to you on your wager brother!

[Dr KP]

Thanks FadethePack, good luck to you on any of your wagers!

[Dr KP]

I am very confident that the Lakers will take at least one game in Boston. So I will be playing the Lakers tonight, and if Lakers lose I am planning on going twice as big on game 2 moneyline. Tonights plays:

Lakers (+3) 2 UNITS
Lakers (+125) 2 UNITS

Good luck to everyone tonight! Should be a great series!

[Swamp-Gator]

GL Dr. KP!! Beautiful Write-Up Buddy!!! GO LA!!

[mxnprd]

good luck

[Dr KP]

0-2 -4.2 UNITS

Not the start that I would have liked from the Lakers in this series. Kobe and the entire Lakers had a horrible night and missed too many open shots, which I don't expect to happen in game 2. Waiting on the line for game 2 but expecting a 4 or 5 UNIT play on the ML.

[Dr KP]

Lakers (-1) 4 UNITS

I was hoping that Lakers would be an underdog again to get a better payout on the ML, but waited a little too long. Expect a better game from Kobe, it took him a few quarters to figure out where to attack Spurs and I think he now knows what he needs to do against the Celtics. The rest of the team will also make their open shots and won't have another 5-20 performance as they did in the 4th of game 1. Also the Lakers will make an adjustment and do a better job rebounding and not get into early foul trouble. Lakers win game 2 and take the series back to LA at 1-1. Good luck tonight!

[Dr KP]

Lakers (-9) 4 UNITS
Lakers to win by 21+ (+650) .5 UNIT

It's hard to wager on Finals like these where the officiating plays a major factor, but if theres any consistency, the Lakers should get the calls they couldn't get the first 2 games and should win in a blow-out.

I'm not going to blame game 2 completely on the officiating but you have to be blind or just hate the Lakers that much to miss the calls that either were or weren't called. One example would be when Rondo jumps into Gasol and gets the steal, and Celtics go down and hit a 3 on the pursuing drive to put them up 10. It was quite clear that Rondo completely jumped into Gasol. Or Turiaf gets a clean block but they call the foul because of the after the shot body contact. A few minutes later in the game, Gasol goes for a lay-up and has the same exact contact after the shot with no call. Either be consistent and call both or call neither. How about the 2nd foul call on Kobe? Taking the best player out of the game on a call like that in the NBA Finals? There were still a lot more instances but these were just a few that lead to that 12 point lead in the first half.

Might be down 2-0 but no worries yet until Boston shows they can win a game in LA. Let's go Lakers!!! Good luck tonight!!!

[Dr KP]

Lakers (-7) 5 UNITS
Lakers to Win by 21+ (+800) .5 UNIT

5-0 on all plays 5 UNITS and larger, hope to keep it going with this one tonight. I've been chasing the Lakers all series and it has killed me but I just see a better effort tonight from everyone. The starting line up will shoot better than 7-28 and they will get a better game from both Odom and Gasol. Hope to cash this and get the series at 2-2, in good position to win my big series wager. Good luck to everyone tonight!

[Dr KP]

Adding:

Lakers OVER (191) 2 UNITS

[Dr KP]

Lakers (+5) 5 UNITS
Lakers ML (+170) 2.5 UNITS

Lakers win this game to force a game 7. I know I chased through the first 4 games and got killed for it, but had to get right back on them for game 6. Even though the Celtics have "dominated" the Lakers this series as everyone claims, the Lakers still could have easily been up 3-2 at this point in the series. Game 2's horrible officiating put them in a big hole, which they almost climbed out of but just ran out of time. Game 4 they just had the worst collapse ever in the NBA Finals. Lakers has had no bench production, and no production from the starting line up except for game 5, when Gasol and Odom finally stepped up, yet this series I still think was a few plays away from being 3-2 Lakers. Lakers come out and play a strong game to push it to game 7 where anything is possible.

[FadethePack]

Dr Kp...your reasoning out the gate was solid and you had me start questioning the C's, but I think you are really chasing them for some reason?

C's going to wrap it up tonight, but look on the bright side one of us will be a winner!

[Dr KP]

I did make a huge mistake of chasing through the first few games, but this game is one that I feel Lakers win. I was planning on laying off the rest of the series, and that's why I didn't place a wager on game 5, but this is a situation that I felt I have to take the Lakers. I've noticed everyone has jumped on Bostons bandwagon (understandable though because they have outplayed the Lakers so far this series) and all I've been hearing over these past 2 days is Boston will easily win and finish off the Lakers. I know a number of people that will be chasing the Boston moneyline for the next 2 games because they keep going back to the fact that no team has ever came back in the Finals down 3-1. Well my thought is, records are meant to be broken. Any Boston fan should know this, considering the Red Sox were down 0-3 against the Yankees and pulled off the unthinkable. So I believe this sets up very well for Vegas. They have scared off all the big Laker money and now are bringing in big Celtics money. This play tonight is more of a situational bet than a capping wager. Everything sets up very nicely for Vegas to get it back on the Celtics backers tonight and potentially game 7. One of us will win tonight, hopefully we at least get a good game that we can both enjoy, good luck tonight Fadethepack!

[THE_ROOKIEEE]

Spoken Like A True Pro