Fade The Public's System: NBA Finals Game 1 Pick

[FadeThePublic]

The Miami Heat are proving that the NBA’s regular season really doesn’t matter much but that having three superstars trumps all – at least so far – heading into their NBA Finals matchup against the Dallas Mavericks.

The Heat at one point were 9-8 during the season as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh acclimatised themselves to each other. Miami had losing streaks of three, four and five games during the season. And the Heat lost all three meetings with the Chicago Bulls during the year and their first three against the Boston Celtics.
But things started to change late in the year as the Heat jelled. That was emphasized by a 100-77 rout of Boston on the final Sunday of the regular season. And since then, Miami has hardly looked back. After dispatching of Philadelphia in five games in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals, the Heat did the same in the conference semis to Boston, a team that LeBron could never beat while he was in Cleveland. In fact, James said after the series he signed with Miami specifically to get over the hump that was the Celtics.
Then the Heat had to deal with the Bulls, who had the NBA’s best record during the year. After a shocking Game 1 blowout loss, Miami won the next four – Chicago hadn’t even lost three games in a row all season or two in a row at home – to advance to the franchise’s first NBA Finals since 2006. And awaiting the Heat are the Dallas Mavericks, who impressively swept the two-time champion Lakers out of the Western semifinals before knocking off Oklahoma City in five games in the conference finals. It’s the Mavs’ first trip to the Finals since … 2006, when Dallas was up 2-0 in the series against Miami and appeared set to win Game 3 before coughing up the game and eventually the series in six games. Only two players from each team remain on the respective clubs: Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem from Miami and Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry from the Mavericks.
The series NBA line for this one with Miami as a -180 favorite, with Dallas at +160. And this despite the fact that the Mavericks swept the Heat during the regular season, winning 106-95 in Dallas on Nov. 27 – that was the game that dropped Miami to 9-8 – and 98-96 in Miami on Dec. 20. Clearly this isn’t the same Heat squad, and those Mavericks had swingman Caron Butler contributing, and he is out for the season.
I think the most likely series result is the Heat winning in six/seven games at +280. Only two NBA Finals have gone the distance since 2000: Spurs-Pistons in 2005 and Lakers-Celtics last year. The least likely result? A Dallas sweep would pay out +1800. There have been two Finals sweeps since 2000: Lakers over Nets in 2002 and Spurs over LeBron’s Cavaliers in 2007. The over/under for total games in the series is at 5.5, with the over a big -215 favorite. Of course the Heat have yet to play more than five games in any series this postseason, while Dallas has done so just once (first round vs. Portland). The total games in series prop has six games at +160 a slight favorite over seven games (+165).

Game 1 Prediction:
My Fading the Public system has done pretty well over the course of this NBA season. As of right now my plays would be Miami Heat -4.5 as 58% of the public is on the Mavs tonight and U187.5 with 80% of the public on the over. I am going to wait until more bets come in on todays game before locking anything in for sure. I will have my bets locked in by 6PM today.

[kev808]

Originally Posted by FadeThePublic

The Miami Heat are proving that the NBA’s regular season really doesn’t matter much but that having three superstars trumps all – at least so far – heading into their NBA Finals matchup against the Dallas Mavericks.

The Heat at one point were 9-8 during the season as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh acclimatised themselves to each other. Miami had losing streaks of three, four and five games during the season. And the Heat lost all three meetings with the Chicago Bulls during the year and their first three against the Boston Celtics.
But things started to change late in the year as the Heat jelled. That was emphasized by a 100-77 rout of Boston on the final Sunday of the regular season. And since then, Miami has hardly looked back. After dispatching of Philadelphia in five games in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals, the Heat did the same in the conference semis to Boston, a team that LeBron could never beat while he was in Cleveland. In fact, James said after the series he signed with Miami specifically to get over the hump that was the Celtics.
Then the Heat had to deal with the Bulls, who had the NBA’s best record during the year. After a shocking Game 1 blowout loss, Miami won the next four – Chicago hadn’t even lost three games in a row all season or two in a row at home – to advance to the franchise’s first NBA Finals since 2006. And awaiting the Heat are the Dallas Mavericks, who impressively swept the two-time champion Lakers out of the Western semifinals before knocking off Oklahoma City in five games in the conference finals. It’s the Mavs’ first trip to the Finals since … 2006, when Dallas was up 2-0 in the series against Miami and appeared set to win Game 3 before coughing up the game and eventually the series in six games. Only two players from each team remain on the respective clubs: Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem from Miami and Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry from the Mavericks.
The series NBA line for this one with Miami as a -180 favorite, with Dallas at +160. And this despite the fact that the Mavericks swept the Heat during the regular season, winning 106-95 in Dallas on Nov. 27 – that was the game that dropped Miami to 9-8 – and 98-96 in Miami on Dec. 20. Clearly this isn’t the same Heat squad, and those Mavericks had swingman Caron Butler contributing, and he is out for the season.
I think the most likely series result is the Heat winning in six/seven games at +280. Only two NBA Finals have gone the distance since 2000: Spurs-Pistons in 2005 and Lakers-Celtics last year. The least likely result? A Dallas sweep would pay out +1800. There have been two Finals sweeps since 2000: Lakers over Nets in 2002 and Spurs over LeBron’s Cavaliers in 2007. The over/under for total games in the series is at 5.5, with the over a big -215 favorite. Of course the Heat have yet to play more than five games in any series this postseason, while Dallas has done so just once (first round vs. Portland). The total games in series prop has six games at +160 a slight favorite over seven games (+165).

Game 1 Prediction:
My Fading the Public system has done pretty well over the course of this NBA season. As of right now my plays would be Miami Heat -4.5 as 58% of the public is on the Mavs tonight and U187.5 with 80% of the public on the over. I am going to wait until more bets come in on todays game before locking anything in for sure. I will have my bets locked in by 6PM today.

6 pm. Est?

[FadeThePublic]

6pm Central time so 7pm Est

[FadeThePublic]

Locked in my Plays:
Heat ML 5units
Heat -4.5
Under 189

Bol tonight everyone, should be a great series. Can't wait to see LeBron vs. Dirk! Should be an interesting match-up

[222]

Gl Ftp
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[FadeThePublic]

3-0 tonight babbyyy!!!!!
Where are all you LeBron haters now lol ?!!!!!