Final thoughts GS/NO, 2nd 1/2 info

[Mr. NASCAR]

We had a really good exchange of info on this game last night, thought I'd tie it up with a recap, regarding second half play that I mentioned yesterday. I was off on my call that GS would follow their pattern & not show up in the second half. NO allowed a 38 pt Q4, after 29, 18 and 25 in Q's 1, 2 and 3.

I got bit laying the -6 on the game, but didn't re-up at halftime.
At the half, the score was 47-58, NO up by 11.
The -6 looked good, especially as I thought GS would tank 2nd half, so I was thinking "no buy" on NO 2nd half, or GS team total Under.

The numbers came GS - 1/2, team total 50.
They scored 47 1st half. Deciding whether to bet or not, I went to the box score. Had they hit 50% or higher, I may have taken Under 2nd half.
But, they were at something like 42% (can't read my own notes.)
And here was the kicker - at 7:11 of Q2 they hit a layup to reach 42 points; they didn't hit another FG until 2:16. They went FIVE minutes w/out a FG.
Almost half a quarter w/out a FG, just 2 pts via FT's.
The odds of that happening again were 'nil.
So, if they had 47 1st half points, with a low shooting %, and with 5 minutes and no FG's (not to mention only 2 of 8 on three pointers), the 2nd half team total Under did not look good at 50, so, no play.

If you're looking for action in the second half, or looking to get off a first half bet, it's beneficial to have money in books that offer 2nd half team totals; check box scores, if you see a freakishly high, or low, shooting % you can hedge using the team total.

Anyway, despite game outcome, it was a good day yesterday of sharing info, thanks for all the opinions.

And good luck tonight . . .