Friday Referee Info

[Mendoza Line]

From the Tim Donaghy story over at covers:

"Another of the NBA’s stated corrective measures was to analyze statistical data for referees, which is interesting in light of Donaghy’s claims that a referee’s tendencies are a good way to predict the result of an NBA game.

Donaghy charges that veteran Dick Bavetta, for example, can be counted on to turn a lopsided game into a closer contest by intentionally making calls that would benefit the losing team, which could save face...."

Here's the best info for Friday night....

LAC/Char: Our man Dick Bavetta stands at 11-35 over/under this season, including 3-10 o/u with totals between 185 and 195 pts. Home teams are just 17-28-1 ATS with Bavetta this year. This crew has worked one game together this year and it went under.

Cle/Phi: All three refs favor the home team. In particular, home dogs of more than 5 points are 6-1 ATS with ref Brian Forte.

Chi/Mia: All three refs lean to the under here. Tom Washington is 20-29 o/u on the year and 3-7 o/u when the total is between 185 and 195. His last 6 Heat games have all gone under.

Wsh/Det: Refs lean to the home team here. Home teams are 27-20-1 ATS with Sean Corbin, winning by 6.1 pts on average, one of the highest margins in the NBA. Home teams are 25-22 ATS overall and 8-5 ATS as 5-10 point faves with Joe DeRosa. Home teams are 24-20 ATS overall and 8-4 ATS as 5-10 point faves with ref Marat Kogut.

NYK/Mem: Ref Bennett Salvatore is 28-19 o/u this season and 10-3 o/u with totals over 205 pts. Pat Fraher leans slightly over, going 29-25 o/u on the season and 9-8 o/u on totals over 205. Haywoode Workman leans under with a 19-25 o/u mark this year, but his only 3 Memphis games have all gone over.

San/Min: This ref crew leans to the road team. Road teams are 32-22 ATS with Dan Crawford, 27-24 ATS with Tommy Nunez, and 32-21-1 ATS with John Goble. Goble also has seen road faves go 10-2 ATS this year. The road team is 2-0 ATS in the only 2 games this crew has worked together this year.

Den/NO: All three refs slightly favor road teams this season. The Nuggets are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS with ref Gary Zielinski.

NJ/OKC: Road teams are 24-18-2 ATS and 3-0 ATS as DD dogs with ref Curtis Blair. They are 27-16-4 ATS and 6-3 ATS as DD dogs with ref Joe Crawford. Both refs strongly favor the under as well, going a combined 11-22 o/u with totals between 195-204.5 points.

Utah/Mil: Small home faves are 11-3 ATS with ref Monty McCutchen and 9-4 ATS with ref Rodney Mott. (Watch the line movement there.) Also, Milwaukee is on a 22-3 ATS run overall, although Utah is on a real nice road run and has owned the Bucks in the past.

LAL/Pho: All 3 refs generally favor the over, but combine for a o/u mark of just 24-25 with totals over 205 points this season.

Port/Sac: Home dogs are 12-5 ATS this year with ref Marc Davis.

[home dogs]

great info mendoza...some of those stats are nuts will be tailing your play tonight

[actionsportscentral]

When you say Bavetta is 11-35 over/under does that mean only 11 times he went over? Just trying to read what you're saying here...

[Mendoza Line]

Originally Posted by actionsportscentral

When you say Bavetta is 11-35 over/under does that mean only 11 times he went over? Just trying to read what you're saying here...

Yes, he's gone over only 11 times in 46 games.

Hopefully tomorrow we'll get ref Tony Brothers again. The home team has only covered 11 of the 55 games he's reffed.

Some of the stats are insane, for sure.

[winslow]

Hi ML,

Thanks for the info.

Just wondering, if you had to pick your 3 best picks out of the games you posted, which would they be?

Thanks.

[shantystar]

Gl

[Mendoza Line]

I personally went with the Char under (Dick Bavetta stands at 11-35 over/under this season)

Milw -1 (Small home faves are 11-3 ATS with ref Monty McCutchen and 9-4 ATS with ref Rodney Mott)

Also like Denver (10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS with ref Gary Zielinski)

GL with whatever you choose!

[winslow]

Thanks and GL.

[markd]

Thanks for the post. Very interesting for sure Played a few of these. Good Luck

[Mendoza Line]

If Port hangs on, it looks like 8-4 ATS in picks suggested by the ref info.