Heat to win the series a strong bet at a Pick

[xxxFTWxxx]

feel free to discuss.

I love the heat to win the next couple games and the price is right. They have been getting better looks on the offensive end all series and the games Dallas won they had to rely on hitting a ridiculous % from 3.

I have no doubt Heat take game 6.. so love the series play at this point. Can always come back over the top and take Dallas + the points in game 7 if I don't feel as good about it or want to middle.

this coming from someone who early in the series was taking dallas cause i knew they would win at least 2 games in series, and actually thought they would win the series. but after seeing how dallas had to shoot to win their games (especially last night), I don't think they can keep it up on the road when Miami is gonna be playing at their best.

thoughts?

[Keith]

kind of think they are looking to grab a last batch of Heat $$$ by making this a pick 'em. With games 6 and 7 in Miami, I think the Heat should be favored (even down 3-2 in the series). Makes me think the Mavs have a real good shot here. Now if the Heat were -140, -150, then I would think the Mavs were in trouble.

[Don Giovanni]

If you are certain the Heat will win game 6 (like everyone else), why not just bet the ML? That's what I would do, but right now I'm still undecided what to think. However, I am going to lay some on Heat for the series since I put down 2u on Dallas at +270 earlier in the series.

[xxxFTWxxx]

i will probably have some game 6 on the ml in parlays and maybe some straight. but most of it will be on miami to win the series at -110 or better. mostly because i am taking some action from some people that lose a lot more then they win... on dallas to win the series.

that puts me on miami for series. after they win game 6 i will be in great spot to middle the game 7

[MCP313]

Originally Posted by Keith

kind of think they are looking to grab a last batch of Heat $$$ by making this a pick 'em. With games 6 and 7 in Miami, I think the Heat should be favored (even down 3-2 in the series). Makes me think the Mavs have a real good shot here. Now if the Heat were -140, -150, then I would think the Mavs were in trouble.

Heat -150 for the series would need to be around a 7 pt FAV for both games 6 and 7 and thats not happening...or a -350 ML both times.

Currently a -5 (-230 ML) and if they win they will go back to at worst -5 and most likely -4.5 since both teams will be in a must win spot.

NBA playoffs for teams in must win spots always get shaded a little and you can see that when any team goes back home down 2-0 after losing 2 on the road. Win or lose the game 4 is always different from the game 3 because of the must win angle.


As far as what FTW is saying that the price is right at Miami -110 or whatever it is....its not.

Running ML bets at -230 (5 pt home chalk) pays ++$$.

Basically bet $100 @ -230 and win $43, then take that money and dump $143 on another -230 in game 7 and you win $62 more leaving you with $205.

And more likely than not they will be less than -230 for a game 7 with something closer to a -200 or -210 assuming no major player gets hurt.