Here Is A System I Found And It Is Kicking A@#!!!!

[vegaspete]

The other thread was getting way too long and confusing so I made this one and hope we can clear it up, I get most of it...

1) Multiply each winning percentage by 1000
2) Then subtract one from the other
3) Divide by 20 and round up or down
4) Add three if the team is home, subtract 3 if they are away
5) Add or subtract the spread for that team
6) If the number is above 10 or more the favorite is the pick,
if it is -1 or lower the dog is the pick

I also understand the filters...

1. Don't play if selected team played the night before (No back to back games).
2. Dont play of one or more starters are out. Allow one week for return starters.
3. Don't play 1st 20 games of the season or 1st 3 games after all star break.
4. Dont play favorites of more than 10 points or more (is this one?).
5. Dont play if win percentage is the same (is this one?).


But where I get lost is...

Are we rounding to the nearest whole number or half point (which one has a better record)? And do we use the favorite or team with the better win percentage as the starting point (obviously if they are the same it doesnt matter and I know what to do)? For example tonight...

San Antonio at Golden State -1.5 (favorite has lower win %)

1) San Antonio record is 23-9 which equals .719 times 1000 equals 719
Golden State record is 19-15 which equals .559 times 1000 equals 559

Now, if you use the higher win percentage team to calculate it would be...

2) 719 - 559 = 160
3) 160 / 20 = 8
4) 8 - 3 (because SA is away) = 5
5) 5 + 2.5 (because that is SA's spread) = 7.5
6) No play because its not over 10 or below -1

If you use the home team to calculate it would be...

2) 559 - 719 = -160
3) -160 / 20 = -8
4) -8 + 3 (because GS is at home) = -5
5) -5 -1.5 (because that is GS's spread) = -7.5
6) Play on underdog (Golden State) because it is lower than -1

Neither one of these works really in this case and I am not sure which one to use. Do we just not play if the favorite has the lower win percentage? I also dont know if rounding to the nearest whole number or half number would be better. Can anyone clear up these two issues? Also, are all those filters and are there any others? I think then everyone should be good with it if we can figure these things out. Thanks.

[vegaspete]

To clearify, when I said "If you use the home team to calculate it would be..." I meant to say "If you use the favorite to calculate it would be...," not the home team.

[JelloBiafra]

lmao...how did you come up with this system? Who are you Will Hunting?

[en fuego]

based on this system
nets =-4.0 no play back to back road games
Indiana=-2.65 no play back to back road games
* all others fell in between or had injuries maybee wed. will work

[en fuego]

Lakers .656 Memphis .303 353/20=-17.65 -3=-14.65 -5 point spread=-9.65
1st game on road no key injuries looks like a play!

[white_tiger]

Originally Posted by en fuego

based on this system
nets =-4.0 no play back to back road games
Indiana=-2.65 no play back to back road games
* all others fell in between or had injuries maybee wed. will work

How could NJ and Ind no play b/c of back to back since both team got Monday off?

[vegaspete]

Yes, Good Will Hunting, no, seriously, I didnt make up the system, its from the other thread, and I really dont want anyone posting plays in here until we figure out exactly how it works so if you know please tell, if not dont post for now... If no one knows, and maybe someone who wants to, sorry I dont have that kind of time, can figure out which way would be more profitable and let everyone know, thanks!

P.S. I actually came up with another question, if both teams played the night before, is it still a play? Lets figure this out. DONT POST IF YOU ARENT HELPING ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS, THANK YOU!!!

Besides for the Lakers game you have an accidental minus sign before 17.65 which will confuse some people, then you would round that to 17.5 (if you use the nearest half point not whole number), minus three because they are on the road is 14.5, minus five because that is the Lakers spread is 9.5 which is no play because it is lower than ten but higher than negative one. However, if you rounded to the nearest whole number it would be 10 and so would be a play.

[NBA#1]

No

[vegaspete]

No, What? I think you have to be a little more specific.

Also, I also have to say that since it originally said ADD OR SUBTRACT THE SPREAD that you must be going by the higher win percentage because if you you were always using the favorite you would always subtract, but I dont know. It also seems like you would have to use only the favorite for the 10/-1 theory to work.

[NBA#1]

P.S. I actually came up with another question, if both teams played the night before, is it still a play? Lets figure this out. DONT POST IF YOU ARENT HELPING ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS, THANK YOU!!!

It is not a play if both teams are coming off back to back nights.

[westcoastO]

well whoever brought the system into discussion should clarify it for us no?

[vegaspete]

Just trying to anwer any possible questions so I thought of another one. Is it dont play double digit favorites or no double digit dogs as well? I would assume dogs is okay.

[NBA#1]

No double digit faves.

[vegaspete]

Heres the best, most clear way I can come up with to answer all questions, from what I have seen so far about how this system should work. What do you think? If you see anything that is definitely wrong tell me. I will post plays using this exact system for a while so everyone can see how it does. If anyone wants to keep track of all those seperate filters so we can see exactly how to alter the system that would be great but I dont think I have the time to do all that. Thanks.


The system, always using the favorite to calculate...
1) Subtract the favorite's winning percentage from the underdog's winning percentage.
2) Multiply by one thousand.
3) Divide by twenty.
4) Round up or down to the nearest half point.
5) Add three if the favorite is home, subtract 3 if they are away.
6) Subtract the spread (since it is always based on the favorite).
7) If the number is ten or more the favorite is the pick,
if it is negative one or lower the dog is the pick.


System filters...
1) Don't play if the selected team played the day before (no back to back games), even if both teams played the day before.
2) Dont play if one or more of the starters are out, or until at least a week after all starters are back.
3) Dont play double digit favorites.
4) Dont play if both teams win percentage is the same.
5) Dont play if the favorites win percentage is worse than the underdogs win percentage.
6) Don't play the first twenty games of the season or the first three games after the all star break.


Example from tomorrow:
Seattle @ Cleveland -9

Seattle 9-24 = .273
Cleveland 17-17 = .500
.500 - .273 = .227
.227 X 1000 = 227
227 / 20 = 11.35
11.35 rounds up to 11.5
11.5 + 3 (Cleveland is home) = 14.5
14.5 - 9 (Cleveland's line) = 5.5
5.5 is no play because it is above -1 but lower than 10


Records for various filters that would be good to keep track of and see how they may be included if they do well...

1) All plays where the favorite has the higher win percentage, unfiltered.
2) All plays where the favorite has the higher win percentage but rounded to nearest whole number instead of half point, unfiltered.
3) Plays where the winning percentage is the same for both teams, but is still calculated the same way using the favorite (first number will be zero).
4) Plays where the favorite does not have higher win percentage, but is still calculated using the favorite (first number will be negative).
5) Plays where selected team has one or more starters out.
6) Plays where one or more starters was out and has been back for less than a week.
7) Plays that are a double digit favorite.
8) Plays that are a double digit underdog.
9) Plays where only the selected team played the night before, not the other team.
10) Plays where both teams played the night before (maybe if they both played the night before it wont matter?).
11) Plays where the selected team is playing back to back games and is a dog (someone said this has still done good as opposed to including games where the favorites playing back to back).

[BKG SPORTS]

Originally Posted by vegaspete

The other thread was getting way too long and confusing so I made this one and hope we can clear it up, I get most of it...

1) Multiply each winning percentage by 1000
2) Then subtract one from the other
3) Divide by 20 and round up or down
4) Add three if the team is home, subtract 3 if they are away
5) Add or subtract the spread for that team
6) If the number is above 10 or more the favorite is the pick,
if it is -1 or lower the dog is the pick

I also understand the filters...

1. Don't play if selected team played the night before (No back to back games).
2. Dont play of one or more starters are out. Allow one week for return starters.
3. Don't play 1st 20 games of the season or 1st 3 games after all star break.
4. Dont play favorites of more than 10 points or more (is this one?).
5. Dont play if win percentage is the same (is this one?).


But where I get lost is...

Are we rounding to the nearest whole number or half point (which one has a better record)? And do we use the favorite or team with the better win percentage as the starting point (obviously if they are the same it doesnt matter and I know what to do)? For example tonight...

San Antonio at Golden State -1.5 (favorite has lower win %)

1) San Antonio record is 23-9 which equals .719 times 1000 equals 719
Golden State record is 19-15 which equals .559 times 1000 equals 559

Now, if you use the higher win percentage team to calculate it would be...

2) 719 - 559 = 160
3) 160 / 20 = 8
4) 8 - 3 (because SA is away) = 5
5) 5 + 2.5 (because that is SA's spread) = 7.5
6) No play because its not over 10 or below -1

If you use the home team to calculate it would be...

2) 559 - 719 = -160
3) -160 / 20 = -8
4) -8 + 3 (because GS is at home) = -5
5) -5 -1.5 (because that is GS's spread) = -7.5
6) Play on underdog (Golden State) because it is lower than -1

Neither one of these works really in this case and I am not sure which one to use. Do we just not play if the favorite has the lower win percentage? I also dont know if rounding to the nearest whole number or half number would be better. Can anyone clear up these two issues? Also, are all those filters and are there any others? I think then everyone should be good with it if we can figure these things out. Thanks.

YOU WOULDN'T PLAY GOLDEN ST BECAUSE IT'S NOT THE UNDERDOG. S ANT
WOULD BE THE PLAY BECAUSE IT'S THE DOG AND GREATER THAN -1.