Line movement comments

[GFootsXtreme]

This playoffs large line movements have all been money on the side getting bet up...lakers are getting flooded and line is moving big time, just a comment no posted play here, feel free to add your 2c on the moves

[Romanowski]

so youre saying these playoffs you bet with the move?

give me the examples

[Earl]

Bro, the books know that people are going to bet on the lakers in this game. First they are favored by 4 and win by four. now the line started at 3 1/2 and has dropped as low as 1 1/2 at some books. So the books get all the money on the lakers, drop the line and wait for the afternoon bettors to take them as they rise the line back up. the line will go back up to 4 before game time with over 80% of the bets on the Lakers. Magic win by 5+ points tonight. Rule number 1 in betting never think you are smarter than the bookies, because you will lose. Always remember they have been doing this a while, they know who joe public is going to bet and will make adjustments to get everyone to bet on the popular team (Tonight the Lakers). Everyone thought this laker team was going to sweep the Magic team. Now it just increases the betting ont hem just because the public will think that the lakers will come out and do it in 5 now. Wrong this series will go 7 and end up in the Staples center to determine who the Champion is

[GFootsXtreme]

Large moves only, 1 full pt or more, going back to May 1st: 10-4

5/30 Orlando moved from 0 to -2 WINNER
5/26 Orlando moved from -1 to +1.5 WINNER
5/17 Lakers moved from -12 to -13 WINNER
5/17 Boston moved from -1 to -2.5 LOSER
5/14 Orlando from -6 to -7 WINNER
5/14 Lakers from -7.5 to -9 LOSER
5/13 Denver -7 to -10 WINNER
5/11 Dallas -1 to -2.5 LOSER
(not counting when Houston lost Yao that move is expected)
5/7 Cle -12 to -13 WINNER
5/6 Lakers -9 to -10 WINNER
5/6 Boston -3 to -4.5 WINNER
5/5 Denver -6 to -7 WINNER
5/4 Orlando +3.5 to +1.5 WINNER
5/2 Chicago +6.5 to +5.5 LOSER

[GFootsXtreme]

earl i am not trying to cap the game, i am only talking line movements here. orlando won the last game and came awful close in game 2, now it opens with a juicy -4 for orlando and everybody is betting lakers...just saying the moves are 3-1 winners/losers, use only as a tool for your capping

[Earl]

I wasn't telling you that you are wrong but when a team is getting 80+% on one side it only makes since to move the line. I know Joe Public does win. and yes you are right with the big line movement therory as well but, if you look at the betting to each side of those big point movements I am willing to bet that the movement that had 80+% on them lost. There are several different therories with line movement, but the most consistant one is that the public will lose more than they win.

[GFootsXtreme]

i think that is true generally speaking. in the nba playoffs i noticed this trend but didn't track it until romo asked for figures. The books open a line and sometimes the public sees through the lines too, they don't always open the correct lines. in all honesty after a win i expected them to open orlando -2 and i think bettors for the most part agreed that the lakers have a 50-50 shot to win tonight and took the value. tonight is the game i would expect the refs to favor orlando to the max to make sure the series extends to LA.

[GFootsXtreme]

article from the web, again not hyping any side just looking at line movement.

-----------------------------------------------------------
Blake Edwards is an oddsmaker with Logans.com.

Los Angeles Lakers at Orlando Magic: Matchup stats and trends

Line/Total: We opened the Magic -3 and quickly moved to 2.5 off sharp action. We were at 3 for a brief time and used Magic -2.5 up until this morning. We moved the line again in the Lakers direction going to Magic -2. About 70 percent of the action is on the Lakers.

We've been hammered with Laker bets on the moneyline. We opened the Magic -145 and have moved it 15 cents to Magic -130. I could see us going to -125 at some point later today. It's a case where both the sharps and the public are backing the Lakers.

We opened the total at 202 and again the sharps have bet it under. Sharp action has bet the first three games of this series under and they've backed it again today. We're currently dealing 201, with more money being bet on the over. About 60 percent of the action is on the over.

Series Price: With the Magic's last win, they've put themselves right back in this series. They're down 2-1, but with the next two games being played in Orlando this team is poised to make this a competitive series. The Lakers are still leading this series and they still have home court advantage, so they're a significant favorite to win it all. They were -800 going into game 3. After the Magic's win we've installed the Lakers -450 to win it all. We're very exposed on the Magic winning the series because their series price was very attractive to bettors. They were +400 after Game 1 loss, and +500 after Game 2 loss.

Prop of the Game: Kobe Bryant (Lakers) Total Made Free Throws 8 o-140

Comments: The last game landed on four - a push for the closing number. We got hammered with that result as we took some action on the Magic -3.5 and there was definitely late money on the Lakers +4.5, so we paid out both ways on that game. It couldn't have been a worse result for us.

[LAyZbOi]

These guys forgot to mention all the money they raked in Asia with live betting....

[mvalentin]

Originally Posted by LAyZbOi

These guys forgot to mention all the money they raked in Asia with live betting....

asia(ns) always get ignored

[SHARPSHOOTER22]

Originally Posted by Earl

I wasn't telling you that you are wrong but when a team is getting 80+% on one side it only makes since to move the line. I know Joe Public does win. and yes you are right with the big line movement therory as well but, if you look at the betting to each side of those big point movements I am willing to bet that the movement that had 80+% on them lost. There are several different therories with line movement, but the most consistant one is that the public will lose more than they win.

Earl, you are on point with all the above.

[jaguilar]

Seems to be the case GFX. Books obviously siding with the lakers as they are lowering the number to get more action on the magic. If the books liked the magic maybe the would have not dropped as much.

[jmoneill]

YES they are trying to get u to bet the magic. BUT in peoples eyes they are looking at 1.5 and thinking its EASY for the lakers. I think they are thinking the lakers are due for a BLOWOUT. just my pin

[Psylence]

IMO books want you on the magic which is why they have reduced the line so much. To the guy Earl? That said the line will be back up to 4 come game time i hope your joking coz that is stupid and is not going to happen.

[goterps74]

This might be similar to the national championship game of Oklahoma-USC.. Remember when everyone pounded the Sooners down to a near pickem.. Well USC clobbered the Sooners that night.

Could there be a repeat? Can the Magic do it tonight