make sense of this...

[shepherd]

i'm not sure what book(s) still have current MVP odds for the finals... but someone else posted this on another site...

Kobe (+140) to win MVP... that is a current price... now here is what i don't understand... how can Kobe possibly be higher than the odds on LA to win the series?

what are the realistic odds of Kobe winning the MVP IF LA goes on to win the title? has to be at least 95%, and that seems rather conservative... but take it a step further... what are the realistic odds of Kobe winning the MVP if Boston goes on to win the series? when you consider the fact that everyone on Boston has had subpar games, and Kobe has carried the Lakers, especially the last couple of games... there has to be some chance that he wins the MVP even without LA winning the series...

so, if LA is (-110) to win the series... how can Kobe not be at least even money?


if (+140) is not really current odds, then my bad... i've just been pondering this since i read that line, and nobody disputed it at the time...

[bigsportsguy2006]

i saw kobe at -110 on sportsbook ... was the same as the lakers for the series ... which does make sense ...


what i was confused about is the other favorite for MVP ... ray allen -120, and rondo +250 ... wtf has ray done besides game 2?? i GOTTA think rondo will get it, and if not him, than paul pierce who is +600!!!! i was stunned seeing that ... am i missing something? ray allen hasnt even hit a 3-ball in any game besides game 2 ... he is a combined 0-18 from the 3 point line in the other 4 games!!!

[shepherd]

i would expect Ray Allen to have a big game in game 6... and his defense on Kobe all series has been a big key... but i agree those odds don't make much sense based on what has happened so far...

are you saying Ray Allen is (-120) to win MVP? and Kobe is (-110)?

that (-110) obviously makes more sense based on what i was saying above, but now i am faced with having to rationalize how Ray can be lower odds than Kobe... i don't want to read too much into that stuff... but i still feel like some things don't add up...

[Bisket]

who else besides sportsbook has mvp odds?

[shepherd]

Originally Posted by Bisket23

who else besides sportsbook has mvp odds?

Bisket, i don't know who else has these odds... would be interested to know, also...

[GFootsXtreme]

If you like Boston then the value play is to take Rondo at +275

Allen for MVP? I don't think so. Yes he had one lights out game that was key but the chants I've heard at Boston were for Rondo "MVP"

[shepherd]

ok, so after LA wins game 6... we now have a game 7 with LA (-340) or so on the ML... consider the following realities: (a) if LA wins, Kobe will almost for sure win MVP... (b) if LA wins, a Boston player will 100% for sure NOT win the MVP... (c) if Boston wins, Kobe could STILL be the MVP...

now look at the new odds:

Kobe (-300)
Gasol (+2000)
Garnett (+2000)
Pierce (+300)
Rondo (+400)
Allen (+180)


set theory specialists ought to find this interesting... how exactly would one go about justifying a (+180) price on Ray Allen, playing for a team that is (+250) or more to win this game, given the fact that it is impossible for Ray Allen to win MVP if Boston loses... especially when you consider the fact that MVP odds are always inflated to lose value, with respect to (e.g.) a single game ML... ? or try this... why would anyone lay (-350) on the Lakers, when they can just get Kobe at (-300), knowing that the Lakers could lose the game and Kobe still gets MVP... ?

something to think about...

[GFootsXtreme]

yes the book is not giving away a freebie but instead offering a horrible line to someone who isn't paying attention. in that regard you're being sharp

but the concept that the celtics win but kobe is MVP? please find me one example ever of the losing team having the MVP in the NBA. If you can't that part of the theory is pretty thin.

[shepherd]

Jerry West won the MVP for the Lakers in a losing effort against the Boston Celtics...

[The Frozen Pond]

There is ZERO% chance that Kobe wins MVP if the Lakers lose.


Rondo in a landslide.


What sucks is they might give it to Pierce if he has a monster Game 7.

[shepherd]

Originally Posted by The Frozen Pond

There is ZERO% chance that Kobe wins MVP if the Lakers lose.


Rondo by a landslide.

landslide, huh? well, right now he is the 3rd favorite on the Celtics, so someone else doesn't think so... if Rondo and Allen both have big games, Allen would get it over Rondo...

but anyway, my point still hasn't really been addressed... even if Kobe can't win MVP unless LA wins (which is simply not true... there IS a non-zero chance Kobe wins MVP even if Boston wins)... but even if it is zero, the odds still don't mesh...

yes, i'm being sharp, but i think there's more to it than that... ok, let me put it this way... if Ray Allen can ONLY win the MVP with a Boston win... and Boston is (+280) on the ML for game 7... how (or why) would anyone bet on Ray to win MVP??? they don't float a price out there unless they think they will get action on it, and if they get absolutely NO action on it, they change the price until they do...

if you think a Celtic will win MVP, you can have: (a) Ray Allen (+180)... (b) Paul Pierce (+300)... (c) Rajon Rondo (+400)... (e) all of the above plus the rest of the Cs roster (+280)...

think about it... and before you dismiss it all by saying, "prop odds always short-change the bettor"... you have to remember that Kobe is (-300) while the Lakers are (-350)...

do with it what you will...

[bigsportsguy2006]

i agreed that kobe could win MVP even if they lose ... especially at home in a game 7 when no one from the C's has dominated .... JMO

[shepherd]

Originally Posted by bigsportsguy2006

i agreed that kobe could win MVP even if they lose ... especially at home in a game 7 when no one from the C's has dominated .... JMO

the fact that it hasn't happened in 40 years is making people think it can't happen... but the reality is this situation is very similar to the one in which West won MVP but Boston won the series... IF Boston wins, assuming Kobe has a big game and it's close... there is at least SOME chance that Kobe wins it...

i don't think it's a strong possibility, but it is a realistic one...

[shepherd]

just for the record, i really don't care who wins MVP and would never bet on a prop like that...

[Jahred]

Originally Posted by shepherd

just for the record, i really don't care who wins MVP and would never bet on a prop like that...