march1- nba

[getusedtowinning]

NBA 1* (505) DALLAS MAVERICKS -1

The Mavericks take their talents to Philly in a matchup that although is not the marquee matchup of the night it will generate a lot of talk in betting forums. Both teams have been winning big lately; with streaks of 6 (Dallas) and 4 games (Philly) and one of those will inevitably come to an end this Tuesday. Dallas is closing a 3game road trip hence I expect them to close that out successfully, on the other hand the Sixers are in the midst of an easy part of the schedule as they have faced Washington, Detroit and Cleveland since the break it could be easier as those teams have a combined record of 48-130 SU and home/road of 16-72 SU. Now they will be getting a look at a real NBA team, a game they can easily drop as after that they will receive another bottom feeder (Minnesota) with its 4-25 record on the road, so this is a game they could loss and then win some again.

Let’s do some research. Dallas has won 8 *** games in the series and is still in search of the Spurs, and now that Parker got hurt they will get a golden opportunity to close the gap and in the mean time keep the Lakers behind in the standings. Both teams have been great in this price range that’s true, from +3, -3 the home team has a record of 17-6 ATS and the visitor 12-6 ATS however we have to take into account that this Sixers team maybe overvalued right now, thank to it’s incredible run since the 2nd month of the season. To give you an idea of that, Philadelphia has been priced in a similar price range in games against Portland, Indiana, Atlanta, Toronto, New Jersey and Charlotte and recently against Chicago, New Orleans, Denver, Utah, Orlando and San Antonio. They have been absolutely great ATS and now they are for the 1st time in the season one game over .500, which is bad news against a Dallas team that is 11-3 ATS on the road against teams over .500, I’m taking the road with Dirk & Co.

Take the Mavericks







NBA 1* (505) DALLAS MAVERICKS @ (506) PHILADELPHIA SIXERS (507)

Not only this is the highest total in a game between these 2 teams since 2006, not only of those 10 games only 1 ended in regulation over 200pts, the average in those contests is 185ppg, the average for these teams is around 196 and as these teams play at 23 and 19 in pace factor and 12-9 in defensive efficiency AND 12-8 in fg% allowed there’s absolutely no reason to expect an increase of 5 full points over their average even do they have been playing to the over lately, I have talked about it in the case of Dallas and as for the Sixers concerns it’s a similar situation as they will be facing a top defensive team for the first time in almost 3weeks. Expect a lot of half court sets and every ball to be fought in what could very easily be an ugly game.

Take the Under

NBA 1* (501) NEW YORK KNICKS +7

Yes, the Knicks have improved. They did give away half of their team but in return they got a superstar used to winning and that alone may change the mentality of a team that was pretty much used to losing for the most part of the last seasons. With that being said and using it as a starting point this line is just too high… already the Knicks have a ATS record as an underdog (20-7) now they are improved and ready to make some noise in the eastern conference, their momentum couldn’t be higher after a comeback win in Miami and they do present some painful matchup problems for the Magic who simply doesn’t have the personnel to defend Melo and Stoudemire, not to mention a PG who can absolutely make you pay if you double any of them.

Also it’s important to notice that the Knicks will be closing a 3game road trip in which they have gone 1-1 so their focus is granted to try to make it 2-1, as for the Magic they come from a blowout win at home and a trip to Miami is waiting for them, not easy to imagine their focus will be on –just winning- and let’s get ready for Lebron & Co. I’ll take the dog.

Take the Knicks


NBA 1* (511) SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ (512) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES UNDER 195

The Memphis Grizzlies are finally in the playoff race, holding to that 8th and final spot for a chance to meet the very same San Antonio Spurs in the first round. They have done that by playing defense and pounding the ball inside with Gasol and Randolph that has resulted in a series of under and in lowering the points allowed per game. The last game between these 2 teams (Sunday) featured 183 points, which is nothing new as these teams have gone for under 195 points in 6 of the *** meetings overall and including those ‘over’ games the average is still on our side as it’s just under 190ppg. I understand the total being -1 less than the previous game, as it was a clear under an adjustment must be made, however I don’t think is a big enough adjustment as there’s one key piece of the puzzle.

Tony Parker is out for this game. And that a key player when talking about totals because the pushes the ball like everyone else in San Antonio, without him I expect them to become a much slower team and hence giving us an easy under.

Take the Under

[BOBBYW]

gl..

[LordCC]

Good luck Bud!

[hodgee]

GL Tonight