MistaFlava's NBA Wednesday ***Lakers-Suns Power Selection*** (Writeup & Analysis)

[Mistaflava]

Wednesday, February 20



Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 (10 Units)

The Los Angeles Lakers are back for the second half of the season and the big question coming into this game is what can Kobe Bryant do for this team with his bad finger? Well as of right now I don't think the injury is as bad as we think and I think he showed last night that scoring points and winning games is not going to be a problem around here. The Lakers are coming off an impressive 122-93 win over the Atlanta Hawks last night and now its time to hit the road and take on their former teammates Shaquille O'Neal and his new Phoenix Suns teammates. The Lakers are absolutel road warriors this season with their 18-10 SU record away from home and in those games they are an impressive 18-9-1 ATS which leads me to believe that this is where the money should be at tonight. With Paul Gasol now in this lineup, the Lakers have to be considered one of the best teams in the NBA and I have a feeling they are going to climb the standing in the West faster than most people think. The Lakers are back on the road in this game almost fresh off the heels of their season long 9-game road trip that saw them surprisingly seven of those games, a run that has put them right up there with all the big contenders in the Western Conference. The Lakers come into this game averaging 113.2 points per game in their last five games played and in those games they have shot an impressive 49.6% from the floor. The big problem I have with Pheonix is their lack of defensive presence as they have allowed 111.0 points per game in their last five games and allowed those opponents to shoot 45.7% from the floor. The big difference in this game is going to be the Lakers ability to get to the free throw line as they have been to the line a whopping 28.2 times per game in their last five games making 83.7% of those shots. As much as Phoenix is uptempo and as much as they can rebound, they allow far too many second chance points to opponents and that is going to cost them with a guy like Gasol working the inside. The guard play for the Lakers has been more than impressive as of late as the team is averaging 23.6 assists per game in their last five games and the team has turned the ball over only 12.6 times per game in those games, well below the NBA average for turnovers per game. Phoenix has forced only 12.0 turnovers per game in their last five games and that's just not good enough defensively to hamper the Lakers and their high powered offense. I think Kobe Bryant no longer has to have huge games for this team to win and tonight is going to be a great statement game for this team after losing recent away games against both Dallas and San Antonio. Time for this team to show they belong.

The Phoenix Suns are excited, the Phoenix fans are excited and the NBA is buzzing over Shaq's debut in tonight's game. One thing is for sure, this trade for the big man better work out or else someone is going to pay the ultimate price for getting rid of a complete player like Shawn Marion. I say that because as well as Phoenix played right before the break and as well as they have been playing recently, there is still that feel of something missing on this team and they have brought Shaq in hoping to have that solved. However, I would like to point out that as much as Phoenix has been winning games of late, their two biggest tests at home against good Western Conference opponents were failures (84-81 loss to San Antonio a few weeks ago and a 132-130 loss to New Orleans last week). That just goes to show that beating up on weaker teams is one thing but playing against well rounded teams like the Lakers is another. Phoenix is not easy to beat in this place as they are 20-6 SU at home this season but in those games they are only 10-15-1 ATS and anyone who has bet on them at times this season knows that they are not worth the price of admission regardless of how good the home line looks. I am not sure why they are favored in this game but I do not like how they matchup with the Lakers and the Lakers have already walked all over this team twice this season. Phoenix comes into this game averaging 113.6 points per game in their last five games which is exactly what the Lakers have been scoring in that time span and in those games this team has shot an impressive 50.4% from the floor. Having said that, the Lakers defense is much better than the Suns defense and the boys from LA have allowed only 97.8 points per game in their last five games and allowed those five opponents to shoot only 45.8% from the floor. That is surely going to bother Phoenix if they can't get into their shootout style of offense and the best example of that was the first meeting here in Novemeber. Steve Nash is not doubt the mastermind behind what happens here in Phoenix and he has led this team to 25.5 assists per game in their last five games which is definitely better than the Lakers guards but the Lakers have a knack for forcing turnovers as they have forced 16.4 turnovers per game in their last five games and when this game comes down to the nitty gritty, that could be a huge problem for the Suns. The Lakers are averaging a whopping 10.4 steals per game in their last five games. In the end I know Phoenix can do well on most nights at home but the Lakers have already proven more than once this season that they are just too much for the Suns and tonight should be no different. As much as Phoenix can score points, they cannot play defense like the Lakers when it matters most and that is the reason I am picking them to lose this game.

SHAQUILLE O'NEAL headlines this bad boy as he makes his debut for the Phoenix Suns. The only problem I have with that is that Shaq is not exactly in full game form right now, he has not played in a long time and breaking things in with a new team and players like Steve Nash is really not going to be easy for him. I think his return to the lineup is overrated big time and I don't think Shaq is going to have anywhere near the impact on this game that most bettors. This is now the third meeting of the season between these two teams with the Lakers winning two of three (including a 21 point win here in Phoenix back in November). How can you not bet on the Lakers in this game knowing that they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games played? Right now there is no stopping this team and with the recent changes they have made I think they are probably the best all around team in the Western Conference. The Lakers are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games versus teams from the NBA's Pacific Division. Phoenix on the other hand has not had a warmup game after the All-Star break to prepare for this encounter and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games that come off a break of more than three days for this team. Get ready people this is going to be a great game and I am all over the Lakers in this bad boy.

Trend of the Game: LA Lakers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.


LA Lakers 109, Phoenix 107

[jonny delta]

Good luck tonight, Flava.


Nice calls on CBB the other night - much obliged.

[Mistaflava]

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Was also on USF +7 tonight...

Congrats to all winners

[Trossi3389]

Nice job !!