NBA Thread~!~!

[drifter12202]

Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks

The line is just where it should be here. Nuggets are known as an average road team and the Bucks are playing nice at home. BUT, they've had only a good win at home, against a bad road team, San Antonio, the rest of the W's came with Wolves, Washington and Detroit. Bucks already lost this year against Detroit on the road, but it was a pretty close one. The thing is, Milwaukee is not a good match for Detroit's style. Denver is a high octane offense, and Milwaukee is having a hard time maintaining a nice rythm on offense. Bucks are 6-18-1 ATS against Denver lately, and 4-8 ATS against the Nuggs in their last 12 at home. Denver had a really nice win at home against Miami and the lost with the Jazz. Coach Karl almost called them out, saying that if you beat Miami doesn't mean you will get the W against any other team just by showing up on the floor. I really think this changed the players' mentality, at least for this game. They will start a 5 game road trip and they'll want to start it with a W here. If Bogut plays and I think he will, Nene will give him a hard time, as they are both very physical big men. As we all know, Denver is an ATS machine, being 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games, and 24-10 when laying points. This game will not be easy for Denver by any means, but considering that they match up well against Milwaukee and coach Karl pep talk, I'm going on them.

Pick: Denver Nuggets -2.5

3.0 Units

Good Luck Everyone!

[drifter12202]

1-0 (+3.0 Units)

[drifter12202]

January 18th, 2012

Overall 1-0 (+3.0)

Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets are a mess right now. They are playing better on the road than at home where they lost 4 straight in 10 out of their last 11. While they have a top 10 D, when you see they are in fact ranked 19th in efficient D. These two teams met 5 days ago in where the Grizzlies won by 9 points. Memphis is playing great at home, having a 5-2 they are in s slump on the road games, with just one win at Minnesota.

In this match-up, the Grizzlies have almost all the major advantages:

Memphis is ranked #21 in offensive efficiency, while NOH is #25. MEM is ranked #10 in defensive efficiency, while NOH is #19.
Memphis is #9 in pace, while the Hornets are ranked #29.
The Grizzlies are ranked #21 in effective FG%, while NO is #27.
Memphis is ranked 22nd in True Shooting %, while the Hornets are #27. H2H, Memphis is 5-2 ATS and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road trips to New Orleans. A Grizzlies are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a 0.5 -4.5 favorite.

Bottom Line, New Orleans will have difficult times today, as Memphis is a very physical team and will get more rebounds, that's for sure.

Pick: Grizzlies -4.5

3.0 Units

[drifter12202]

January 18th, 2012

7-Point Teaser!

Memphis Grizzlies +2.5

Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5 - Minnesota is dominating the Pistons in every category except FT%. Can't go wrong with this pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 - HOT team against THE WORST team in the league. OKC didn't even push too hard to win at the TD Garden against the Celtics, how on earth are the Wizards going to keep this one close is beyond me.

2.0 Units

Good luck everyone!

[manful]

I do not understand when there are so confident in favor and buy him glasses!
New Orleans is time to stop a series of home defeats. It can not last forever, this series.
Detroit-Minnesota
Statistics?) This is the information about the past but not about the future.
Recall a recent game Chicago - Memphis. There was also a statistic)
Detroit has won more often at odds Minnesota was at a party! This is also the statistics.) +8
Oklahoma is so strong that I see no reason to buy her a head start in a game against this opponent.
But here we are on the teaser!)
Of course, good luck!

[drifter12202]

I understand completely what you are saying. But neither me nor you can predict the future so all we can do is try to make our best guess/bet now and hope it hits.

I agree with you on the teaser. Not a big fan of them donno why I did it.

[drifter12202]

Knew should've stayed away from the teaser. The team you least expect ends it for you. Teasers are a waste of money. No more teasers for me...

2-0 (+6.0 Units) on PICKS
2-1 (+4.0 Units) Overall

Will post pick later on

[drifter12202]

January 19th, 2012

Los Angeles Lakers @ Miami Heat

A classic Kobe vs LeBron here. Miami Heat is the better team and managed to return to the winning ways after 3 games and one half of losing. LeBron came out big to outscore the Spurs by himself in the 3rd Q and Mike Miller was feeling it with 6/6 from behind the arc. The thing that worries me here is how is Miami going to contain the Gasol-Bynum duo. They don't have a center on their roster, as Joel Anthony or Dexter Pittman are sub-mediocre big men.
The fact that Wade is out is a problem especially in this match-up.

Some facts:
- Miami Heat is ranked 1st in offensive efficiency, tied with the 76ers and OKC, while LA Lakers are #17.
- The Heat is ranked 7th in defensive efficiency, while LA Lakers are ranked 5th.
- Miami is ranked 2nd in true shooting with 57%, while the Lakers are ranked 11th with 52.4%.
- Miami is first in the league in effective field goal with 53%, while LA is 14th with 48.1%.
- Miami has the 2nd best pace, with 98, while the Lakers are 21st, with 93.4.

All this stats are mostly based on a Miami Heat team that had Dwyane Wade there, but Miami's bench is better that LA's. For this game, you can say that LA has no Lamar Odom on their roster. Even if Odom's game know is non-existent, last season against Miami he averaged 12.5 points and 7 rebounds, coming from the bench.

Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in their last South Beach trips, and 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings. It will be a game between one of the best defenses in the league (LAL) and one of the best and fast offenses in the game (MIA). Lakers will surely have the rebounding edge here, as both Gasol and Bynum should dominate the boards, but i'm not sure if LA can keep it up with Miami. One important thing is how the Lakers are playing on the road. They have played 10 home games this season (11 including the Clippers game) and on the road they've lost at Sacramento, at Denver, at Portland, "at" the Clippers, and won in OT at Utah, being outsoutscored 495-458, allowing at least 99 points in those 4 losses. Do you think that because the Lakers had 2 days rest after the Mavs game is a good sign? Check again as they are 1-7 ATS in their last 8games after 2 days rest. Meanwhile, Miami is 11-5-1 in their last 17 after a 1 day rest.

So, Miami is way better ATS after just 1 day rest than LA after 2 days rest. I am going on Miami here. James, Bosh and maybe Miller could score in bunches here, and Miami's bench is better than Lakers'. I am not worried about Kobe's 40 pts/night, as he is taking too many shots and is ignoring his team mates. Not like passing to McRoberts is a good idea, but you get the point. Gonna take the better team here, with a LeBron James that likes to Alpha Man role, he's not forced to share the ball with Wade, and Bosh I think will be pleased to be upgraded from the 3rd option to the 2nd.

Pick: Miami Heat -5.5

3.0 Units

Good Luck Everyone!!!

[thekid777]

Gl!

Any thoughts on o/u? I am leaning under

[drifter12202]

Thanks Kid! I stay away from O/U bets so I'm not even going to speculate. Your bet doesn't sound too bad though have you done any research on it?

[manful]

Yes yes yes Miami Heat -5.5 and UNDER 191.5

[sportsreport]

Hoop it

[drifter12202]

3-0 (+9.0 Units) on PICKS
3-1 (+7.0 Units) Overall

Good call on the under Manful and kid!!! Let's see if we can hit one more tonight! Will have pick later on...

[drifter12202]

January 20th, 2012

Memphis Grizzlies @ Detroit Pistons

The line is were it should be. Remember that the Grizzlies were laying 4 points two days ago at New Orleans. Memphis hasn't won two in a row on the road since February last year. And keep in m that Detroit is actually the 2nd worst team in the NBA, while the Hornets are slightly better than them.

The Grizzlies, I thought that without Z-Bo they would fall apart, but they are one game over .500, and are 9th in the West. In a condensed schedule as we have this season, every win counts, and Memphis has decent chance to reach top 8 after the 66th game. If they were 5-8 or worst, this was a stay away game, but given the fact that they are winning without Randolph and playing good overall basketball, this is a must bet game in my opinion.

Let's look at Detroit's miserable stats:

- Offensive Efficiency: Memphis 20th (98.6) / Detroit 29th (93)
- Defensive Efficiency: Memphis 10th (98.6) / Detroit 29th (106.5)
- True Shooting %: 22nd (51%) / Detroit 27th (49.6)
- Effective Field Goal %: Memphis 19th (47.3) / Detroit 27th (45.6)
- Pace Factor: Memphis 13th (94.7) / Detroit 30th (90.2)

Yeah, the Pistons are bad. Not to mention the fact that they have the worst rebounding rate in the league, with 37.7 boards per game, opponent teams are scoring with ease. With a 47.1 field goal % Detroit is shooting 20% of their total shots when there are 4 or less seconds on their shot clock making 37.7% of those shots. While the Grizzlies are allowing just 31.4% for the opponent teams in the last 4 seconds the offense. On the other hand, Detroit is allowing a whopping 50% in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock for the opponents. Pistons' best player, second year center Greg Monroe will be the x-factor tonight, as he is going to be dominated by a Marc Gasol in great shape, scoring and rebounding very effective.

The road team (Grizzlies) are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 straight, Memphis is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 trips in Detroit. The favorite team (Grizzlies) is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 and are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a 0 -4.5 points favorite.

Memphis is clearly the better team here even though Detroit could have a chance to even win straight up. But I think the pistons are a mess right now so I will go with Memphis' D and superior physical strengh as well as a better mind set.

Pick: Memphis -4

3.0 Units

[drifter12202]

4-0 (+12.0 Units) on PICKS

Will have pick later on...