05-23-2008, 07:11 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 59
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stat for Lakers/Spurs Game
n the NBA playoffs over the last several seasons, NBA home teams are on a 15-0-1 ATS run if they successfully overcame a double-digit deficit at home in their last game against the same opponent. In other words, if a home team, like the Lakers in Game 1 against the Spurs, was down by 10 or more points at any point in the game but rallied back to win, they covered the next game if the next game was also at home. So this "system" applies to home teams either playing in Games 1 & 2 or home teams playing in Games 3 & 4.
In the first round of this year's playoffs, Cleveland fell behind Washington in Game 1 by a score of 30-19 but came back to win, 93-86. Cleveland then won and covered Game 2, 116-86.
New Orleans fell behind Dallas in Game 1 by 10+ points at various points in the 2nd quarter and trailed at halftime, 52-40. The Hornets came back to win, 104-92, and then crushed the Mavericks in Game 2, 127-103.
San Antonio fell behind Phoenix at home in Game 1 by as many as 16 points (43-27) and then rallied to win in double overtime, 117-115. The Spurs then won and covered Game 2, 102-96.
New Orleans briefly fell behind San Antonio by 11 points (48-37) in Game 1 but went on to win, 101-82. The Hornets rolled in Game 2, 102-84.
And now we have the Lakers, who were behind by 8 points at halftime of Game 1 only to see their deficit grow as large as 20 points. But less than an hour later, the Lakers left the Spurs stunned and hurting with an 89-85 loss. So now history tells us that the Lakers will easily cover the spread in Game 2, since the Spurs are supposedly deflated by the blown opportunity while the Lakers are determined to not dig themselves another hole. And that's all well and good, but there's just one problem. That problem being, I just pointed all this out here on Covers, which should mean that the Spurs will cover the spread in Game 2 with no problem.
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