thinkingdog's NBA pick/analysis ESPN ***SUNS/WARRIORS***

[thinkingdog]

It's gonna be run and gun tonight at Oracle Arena as the 36-15 Suns take on the explosive 31-20 Golden State Warriors. These highly offensive teams (only teams to average more than 109 points per game) will most likely light it up, but who will come out on top?

Last time out on November 26th, the Warriors outshot the Suns 129-114 at Oracle Arena, and Golden State has taken the last two meetings.

Both teams come off close wins against the Washington Wizards, although the Warriors did it in stunning fashing coming back from a 23-point deficit on the back of Stephen Jackson's 41 points.

Shaq will not be a factor tonight, as he is not expected to take the court until tomorrow (possibly) against the Mavs. Leandro Barbosa is also day-to-day due to flu-like symptoms. No significant injuries on the Warrior's team at the time of posting.

Both teams are fairly hot lately, with the Suns 7-3 in the past ten games while the Warriors have been winners of 9 of the past ten. Both teams are on two-game winning streaks.

So who will win?

Phoenix Suns +115 (1.0 unit)

The Suns are the elite of the Western Conference and are a class organization with an athletic and smart corps of players including Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire. Both players have helped their team rise atop the Western Conference standings and Phoenix has obvious reason to be confident heading into the meeting with the Warriors. Even without Barbosa, the Suns should be able to make their shots down the stretch.

The Warriors, also a confident bunch, and led by Ellis, Jackson, and Baron Davis, should keep things close, but the Suns will not let them get into the flow of the game and will not make the same crucial defensive errors that let the Warriors come back against the woeful Wizards (did Golden State feel themselves lucky that they beat Washington?). Believe it or not, it will be the Sun's defence that will help them win outright tonight.

Plus the national TV audience on ESPN will help the Suns elevate their game a notch, whereas the Warriors, once they fall behind by the third quarter, will wilt in the spotlight.

Bottom line is that Phoenix's shots will fall while the Warriors suddenly cold-shooting and lack of discipline (offensive, as well as defensive) will let them down. Phoenix will win the battles in the fourth quarter, and by the end of the night the Suns will rise.