thinkingdog's NBA Saturday Great Value Play

[thinkingdog]

I'm going with the Rockets to win on the moneyline against the Chicago Bulls.

Houston has put together a nice string of wins, going 6-0 in their last homestand, the most recent a decisive knockout win against the Cavaliers. Their defense has been stellar, limiting opponents to an average of 84 points in the past six games.

To be sure, the Rockets road record is mediocre at best, but given the gelled starting lineup (McGrady is no longer a will-he-play/won't he play proposition) and the concreteness of everyone's role in the team (Artest now a starter for sure), the team knows exactly what it needs to do to win games. It's all a matter of execution, and given their renewed commitment to putting in a good effort on the road, I think they will do it tonight.

Plus the value is there for the +100 for a 37-21 team against a 26-33 team, notwithstanding Chicago's 16-11 home record.

HOUSTON ROCKETS, +100 ML

Granted, I'm not the greatest picker of winners (see POD contest; in fact, I'm much better a picking losers), but I think the Rockets are a solid play!

BOL to all.

[white_tiger]

gl

[skins-win-supbwl]

this is a tough one..the line is not what i expected given the way the rockets have been playing...but the bulls aren't bad (except for last night) especillay at home. They played the rockets pretty well last time in houston, losing 100 - 107

[mvalentin]

I was wondering what was up with this spread too, considering the rockets have been on fire but they were on a huge home swing

I can't figure out the NBA, I know that the Bulls are honoring some players today, but is that enough to justify an out of nowhere performance (possibly)

meh only small play on this, i bit into lakers -2.5 last night

[thinkingdog]

The Bulls might be up for this game as they did stink it up in Washington the other night, and the emotions of honoring the departed Johnny Kerr and Norm Van Lier could also be a factor.

But the Rockets are on fire as of late, plus they are winners of 9 of the past 10 meetings between these teams. And the Bulls will be playing their fourth game in five nights, only having Thursday night as their last day off. Two back-to-backs since the 24th would seem to be quite a drain on their energy, especially after the demoralizing loss to the Wizards last night.

Plus the game back on the 3rd of this month was a lot closer than it should have been. Houston was up by 14 with about 100 seconds left and they let the Bulls back into it with some untimely 3s and a lax defense. The 7 point win was not indicative of Houston's actual domination.

Adelman has stated he wants to have his team finish off opponents in the fourth quarter and not let them back into it late. I think that should happen tonight.

Geez, the more I write about it, the more it seems like a bad play. I am, after all, the ULTIMATE FADE!