thinkingdog's Saturday night pick/analysis ***76's/SUNS***

[thinkingdog]

The Wizards outright won the game last night against the Bulls, so an easy win for one unit!

Tonight, the 76's head into Phoenix after getting beaten by the Warriors, while Phoenix was last in action on Wednesday, getting stung by the Hornets.

Phoenix Suns - 9.5 (1 unit, -103)

With these two teams getting soundly beaten in their last outings, I'll look for the Suns to come out and be the better and more disciplined team to get the big win.

Philadelphia has been playing much better as of late, while the Suns have cooled since getting Shaq on board. However, the overall better team is still the Phoenix squad (39-19) and I think tonight they will gel and get a double-digit win over the 76's (26-33).

Philly has been good ATS in its past 15 games, going 11-4, but is 0-5 ATS in its past five games in Phoenix. The Suns have only been 2-6-1 ATS in its past nine home games, but I think the mediocre 76's will be a nice tonic tonight for a blow-out Suns win!

Phoenix has statistical edges in points-for (of course!), defensive rebounding, shooting percentages and three pointers. Philly has the edge in points-against, offensive rebounding, and steals. However, with the new interior presence of Shaq, which frees up Stoudemire outside the paint, I look for the Suns team to get better and better at offensive rebounding (having more presence for second shots after missed three's) as well as cleaning up boards more efficiently, in general. Stoudemire's stats are definitely impressive after the Shaq-uisition!

I'd normally stay away from a team that got handed a 20+ point drubbing, but it is the second of back-to-back games for Philly and the 76's are not that great of a team. Improving, yes, but not that great. Plus they got trounced late in the game, as they were only down by 10-12 points with a couple of minutes left before the Warriors blew it wide open. They had a chance to get close and lost it with still some starters in the game. Consquently, they will be tired and downtrodden.

I think the Suns will have a better mindset coming into tonight's action. Figure on a 15-18 point win for the home squad!

Good luck to you all!