thinkingdog's Tuesday late-night pick/analysis ***Hawks/Lakers***

[thinkingdog]

Tonight the Lakers look to avenge a surprising 98-95 loss to the Atlanta Hawks on February 6th at the Philips Arena.

The Hawks are an awful 6-17 on the road, while the Lakers rock at home with a 17-7 mark. In addition, L.A. has won three of the past four home contests against the Hawks. These teams are moving in opposite directions as Atlanta has a 4-game losing streak, while the Lakers have won four straight. The Hawks have only covered the spread in one of their past five road games, and the Lakers have are 2-4 ATS at home in their past six.

The Lakers will probably win the game, of course, but will they cover the –11 point-spread?

Atlanta Hawks +11 (-110; 1 unit)

The points are too many, despite LA’s willingness to trounce Atlanta after the defeat nearly two weeks ago. The Hawks have a new look as it acquired Mike Bibby from the Sacramento Kings and this trade should improve Atlanta's offensive ball movement. In addition, the shake up in the organization will put the team in a positive optimistic frame of mind. They will be competitive, no doubt.

Also, other than a blow-out loss to the Rockets, the Hawks have not lost by more than five-points in their past five games (one of those games being the 3-pt win over the Lakers). Conversely, the Lakers in their past five games have only had one blow out win against the lowly Timberwolves; in the other four games, they lost once (against Atlanta) and their three wins were by an average margin of only 7.6 points.

In addition, Kobe’s sore pinky on his right shooting hand may hamper his ability to put up his usual numbers. Gasol would pick up some slack, but a Lakers win of over ten points seems unlikely.

Look for the Atlanta to keep things relatively close, within 5-8 points. BOL to all!