uva3021 ML Underdogs

uva3021 · #1 10-28-2008, 11:53 AM

Here is the 411, I am flat betting NBA underdogs on the ML. There may be that rare situation when playing the favorite ML is emminently practical, however I will try to remain exclusive to underdogs on the ML.

The success of this "system" is based purely on devout optimism, which will come to fruition if this hits 33% winners. 33% winners playing on average underdogs of +200 or better (some may be +120 or +320), will put us in the black.

If you want some justification for my philosophy, here it is:

Roughly 83% of teams win at least 37% of their games every year. In any given year, there is normally 5 teams that are just awful, and 5 teams that are elite. If we take the entire league and just incorporate teams that are in the majority deviation (meaning the majority of the teams win between 30-50 games every year), the range of the expected number of times they are dogs is 37% - 63%. I am looking to hit 33% based on that range of teams. Obviously 50% of the time any team on any given time is going to be an underdog. But if I can limit these plays to teams that are closer to mediocrity, this "system" can be a surging success, or it could be a diabolical disaster.

Having said that, I will play the underdog in all three games day, despite playing against the two best teams in the league. And hitting the 33% number tonight puts me immediately in the plus.

CLEVELAND +240
MILWAUKEE +230
PORTLAND +300

Feel free to scrutinize my bold and controversial methods, or if you like, you can wait and speak with me while I'm CASHING CHECKS AT THE BANK

If I go 0-3 today my NBA forum days are over and I will just track this by myself, and tail Bustamove.

gl