Vb 06/08

[VegasButcher]

"LA Lakers +3

Fouls, fouls, and some more fouls -- that's been the name of the game in these finals. 67 foul shots were called in game 1 and then 67 more in game 2. This is pretty ridiculous, especially the 'phantom' calls.

Boston shot 43% in each of the first 2 games -- this is what I expect their shooting %-age to be this series. The difference of course was their 69% (11 for 16) shooting from the 3-PT line. Lakers on the other hand shot 5 for 22 from the three, for 23%, and 41% from the field (I expect their shooting %-age to be closer to 45%/46% for their series with their clear advantage inside). Boston was able to give up 8 less FG's on 5 less shot attempts, than in game 1. There was a huge difference in Assists to Turnover ratios between the 2 squads in game 2: 2.15 for BOS vs 1.2 for LAL. Lakers continue to be dominant inside with Gasol and Bynum, but Odom needs to step up his game. Boston's advantage is in their PG play, where Fisher cannot stay with Rondo and is way too small to guard Allen.

Can Boston keep up the hot shooting from the 3pt line? More specifically, can Ray Allen keep this up? Will the Lakers continue to stay sloppy with the ball? Will Kobe get in foul trouble again?

Lakers were favored by 6 points in each of the first 2 games. That means that on neutral court, the oddsmakers are saying that they're 3 points better than Boston. Thus using this logic, the line should be EVEN in today's game. Instead we're getting 2.5 / 3 points of value on the Lakers. I expect them to make the necessary adjustments to slow down Allen and Rondo, and increase their emphasis on the inside game. Getting 3 points against a team that is 19-30 ATS at home this season -- well, that's a 'value' investment that I'm willing to make tonight.


Lean: UNDER 193
"

[Romanowski]

gl butch