VegasButcher LAL/BOS Series PICK and ANALYSIS

[VegasButcher]

"Los Angeles Lakers -180

In 2008, Lakers were the favorites to win the NBA title while the Celtics were the underdogs. Celtics had the home court advantage and cruised to a relatively easy 4-2 series win. This year the Lakers have the home-court advantage. We can talk about motivation all we want but the bottom line is that both of these teams are veteran and highly motivated groups. The fact that Lakers lost this championship 2 years ago does NOT give them an advantage in this series. What gives them the advantage is one key matchup: Gasol vs Garnett.

Two years ago Garnett was the more dominant of the two. In the series against the Lakers, Garnett averaged 20 PPG, 11 RPG, and 3 APG. Gasol on the other hand had 17 PPG, 9 RPG, and 4 APG. Clear advantage for Garnett.

Let's compare their performance against one anothe this year. In 2 games played against the Lakers during the regular season, Garnett averaged 11 PPG, 8 RPG (ZERO offensive rebounds), and 2 APG. This is a drop of 9 PPG and 3 RPG from his averages agains them 2 years ago.

Gasol in 2 games against Boston averaged 17 PPG, 9 RPG, and 2 APG. No improvement over his #'s against Boston in the 2008 finals, but no regression either. Garnett has gotten older, slower, and less effective playing against Gasol. Gasol stayed pretty much the same.

So far in 2010 playoffs, Gasol averaged 20 PPG, 11 RPG (4 offensive), 3 APG, and 2 BPG. In comparison Garnett has averaged 15 PPG, 8 RPG (1 offensive), 2 APG, and 1 BPG. Last series against Orlando his PPG went down to 10 per game.

To me this is the most critical matchup between the two teams. Don't get me wrong, having Artest guarding Pierce instead of Radmanovic (2 years ago) is going to have an effect. Having a deeper bench with Bynum starting (even though he's limited) will have an effect. Having home-court advantage....well, you get the point...

Two years ago, Garnett joined the Celtics in the beginning of the season, while Gasol joined the Lakers in the middle of it. Garnett outplayed him in the championship series and Boston won the title. This year, I expect Gasol to have an advantage over Garnett, as Lakers take this one in 6 games.

"

[steel69]

gl