Very intresting TOTAL trend for NBA Elimination games

[goldengreek]

STOLE THIS FROM ANOTHER PLACE:


LOOKS LIKE THE UNDER IS SOLID IN GAMES WHEN A TEAM IS FACING ELIMINATION

SO FAR THIS YEAR ITS 2-1 TO THE UNDER

HERE IS A BREAKDOWN OF PAST YEARS-- THE UNDER IS THE FIRST TOTAL SHOWN IN THE RECORDS



Since keeping records starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated (based on opening lines & regulation scores) for all Elimination games* total results are as follows:


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 53-34-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 20-18-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 33-16-1


1st Round of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 25-19-1

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 14-10-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 11-9




2nd Round & onwards of playoffs

All Elimination Games: U/O 28-15-1

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 6-8
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 22-7-1


Clearly the prime spot to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a losing % of only .233), when both teams have a series win under their belts and are both winners of at least 2 games in the current series.

The one team to prove the exception (whose results I haven't incl. in the above figures) is - no suprise - Phoenix....

Phoenix Suns

Elimination games they win SU: O/U 7-1
Elimination games they lose SU: O/U 2-3

For Phoenix it doesnt matter the nature of the game (4, 5, 6 or 7) they're playing in, or the Round they're playing it in, in relation to the final total result: it's down to their SU performance.

Take away Phoenix sice the are not in the playoffs and the records for unders above improves dramatically

[junkiee24]

nice find!

[Swamp-Gator]

Good Stuff!!

[GFootsXtreme]

This trend has always been solid in the past, the pistons and spurs were classic under teams when in elimination games

i'm not sure it holds as well today as in the past. i look at how little influence home court is having on many of these series and wonder if the days of playing defense to win championships really holds like it used to.

[goldengreek]

Under in the new orleans game

3-1 now this year

[Chayou44]

Yea i agree with this, at the beginning of the playoffs i said play overs early in series, unders later in series.... it holds true for the most part, but looks like even more so in elimination games.... good detail find Greek

[packers51089]

makes so much sense as teams will be tighter

[Earl]

well the reason is teams facing elimination will try to slow the game down and make better quality shots. and play tighter defense. Makes perfect sence. I think the Orlando/Philly game goes over just because Orlando is not happy with the suspension of Dwight Howard and they are goin to go and prove a point just because they don't have Howard. IMO it will be raining 3's in Philly tonight.