CBK POINT SPREAD - Tue Jan 31 2012

[Chin Music]

Originally Posted by Grizzly Joe

so on avg ya just gotta keep bettin 3 g's every night and wait about 64 nights to hit it big... then yer swimmin' in da money... i'd be drownin' long b4 dat...

That's completely wrong.

You don't have to bet 3 g's. You bet according to your bankroll. When I started this 9 years ago, I had a tiny bankroll, a wife, 2 kids, a job, and a mortgage. I would have probably played each ticket for $2 back then.

It's also wrong because I played 31 tickets last night, not one ticket. While my chance of winning any particular ticket last night was less than two percent, my chance of hitting one of my 31 tickets was much higher than that. Actual number is tough to calculate since a lot of the plays overlapped. In the case of 31 completely distinct tickets, I would have had a 38% chance of cashing at least one ticket.

[Hollywood]

Originally Posted by Chin Music

That's completely wrong.

You don't have to bet 3 g's. You bet according to your bankroll. When I started this 9 years ago, I had a tiny bankroll, a wife, 2 kids, a job, and a mortgage. I would have probably played each ticket for $2 back then.

It's also wrong because I played 31 tickets last night, not one ticket. While my chance of winning any particular ticket last night was less than two percent, my chance of hitting one of my 31 tickets was much higher than that. Actual number is tough to calculate since a lot of the plays overlapped. In the case of 31 completely distinct tickets, I would have had a 38% chance of cashing at least one ticket.

What would your % on cashing if you just played the main 3?

[Chin Music]

Originally Posted by Hollywood

What would your % on cashing if you just played the main 3?

If I played 39H - 45H - 49H I would have a 17.5% chance to cash.

[Hollywood]

Originally Posted by Chin Music

If I played 39H - 45H - 49H I would have a 17.5% chance to cash.

I would have had a 38% chance of cashing at least one ticket.

how could it only be 17% if you had a 38% of cashing at least one ticket with the same main 3 on a 7 teamer? Your odds would have to decrease from the main 3.

[Chin Music]

Originally Posted by Hollywood

how could it only be 17% if you had a 38% of cashing at least one ticket with the same main 3 on a 7 teamer? Your odds would have to decrease from the main 3.

Here is the full quote:

"Actual number is tough to calculate since a lot of the plays overlapped. In the case of 31 completely distinct tickets, I would have had a 38% chance of cashing at least one ticket."

You are right, my actual chances of cashing would have to be less than 17%. As I said, it's not an easy calculation because of the overlapping games. I could calculate it, but that's not high on my list of things to do right now. I'm on to today's tickets.