CBK POINT SPREAD - Wed Feb 1 2012

[Hollywood]

Originally Posted by Pigeon

Line discrepancies don't matter enough to turn a profit on Proline, I've done the research.

People need to understand that the lines that Vegas puts out aren't the holy grail. If online a team is +8.5, but +9.5, or even +10.5 on Proline, it doesn't give you an edge to play the higher number. If we could play one game tickets, I'd be more willing to come around on the idea.

Not sure if it gives you an edge or not..I also look at these discrepancies and always assume that if I find 5 line discrepancies on teams I want to bet on..2 or 3 of them aint coming in which is why my main p.s is always 3 picks then i pyramid my 4th and then my 5th pick. If they all come in then the profit is great. I cap what i think is the best 3 and take it from there.

Regardless of the line discrepancies ya gotta cap the game. If proline gives you a point or 2 bonus on the team that you think is going to win even on the book line...then great. This "edge" on line differences cannot be the only ingredient.

[mikkii10]

hollywood are from sudbury?

[Hollywood]

Originally Posted by mikkii10

hollywood are from sudbury?

yep.

[Allbutbroke]

Originally Posted by Chin Music

I don't know specifically how Cpt. Kirk works out his plays, but I will say this about any capper who can actually win at ProLine by playing negative edge tickets. That capper would make a lot more money by making those same bets with an off shore book. It's a mathematical fact.

Look at it this way. ProLine offers you 6.00 for your wager, and Pinny offers you 7.00 for the same bet. You decide to use ProLine for $100 and you win. Congrats, but you would have $100 more in your pocket if you went with Pinny.

What edge players do is to look for the situations where ProLine is paying more than the sports books. It's about getting maximum return.

Very happy that you are posting your plays and respect your expertise. In terms of edges - my concern is anyone wagering on the games still needs to handicap each game which seems to be totally lost with edge bettors. From that perspective it makes little sense to me. I think you have to handicap the game and if the edges fall in favour of your handcaping then terrific. There is no "value" in losing regardless of who had the best line - the books or the OLG.

[winorlosenodraw]

just a question would the florida state game be like and edge last night. They did cover the 12.5 online spread since the win by 14 but failed to cover the 14.5 proline offered. Just a question

[Hollywood]

Originally Posted by winorlosenodraw

just a question would the florida state game be like and edge last night. They did cover the 12.5 online spread since the win by 14 but failed to cover the 14.5 proline offered. Just a question

Yes, this would be one of those games. However, this point edge thing very rarely fall into a play such as this one. Usually the extra bonus point or 2 doesn't even matter. This was the only "edge" that came last night where the bonus points made any difference vs online play.

[winorlosenodraw]

thanks hollywood appreciate the info

[Chin Music]

Originally Posted by Allbutbroke

Very happy that you are posting your plays and respect your expertise. In terms of edges - my concern is anyone wagering on the games still needs to handicap each game which seems to be totally lost with edge bettors. From that perspective it makes little sense to me. I think you have to handicap the game and if the edges fall in favour of your handcaping then terrific. There is no "value" in losing regardless of who had the best line - the books or the OLG.

As I said in another thread today, capping the game only works if you are smarter than the sports books. But most people aren't. That's why the sports books can continue in business.

If someone has a 3000 game history of beating a sports book, I would acknowledge that he would add some value to the edge plays by capping the game. But really, that guy probably doesn't care much about ProLine. He's too busy getting rich beating the sports books.

[Allbutbroke]

Originally Posted by Chin Music

As I said in another thread today, capping the game only works if you are smarter than the sports books. But most people aren't. That's why the sports books can continue in business.

If someone has a 3000 game history of beating a sports book, I would acknowledge that he would add some value to the edge plays by capping the game. But really, that guy probably doesn't care much about ProLine. He's too busy getting rich beating the sports books.

Very interesting comment which I have bolded. Never thought of things in those terms and need to chew on what you said. Can't argue with that logic and it makes sense. I still find comfort in doing some handicapping. No doubt playing edges was a gift in the OLG early years...things seem much tighter these days.

[Allbutbroke]

Just want to explore this further....

Is it really a question of outsmarting the books? Isn't their objective to draw equal wagers on both sides of the game?...therefore not telling where you where you should put your loot - at least not initially. Subsequent line movement (which the OLG does not do) may tell you where they want you to wager because their line movement is reflective of too much money or sharps on one side therefore they need to equalize.

[Cash Calloway]

I don't know specifically how Cpt. Kirk works out his plays, but I will say this about any capper who can actually win at ProLine by playing negative edge tickets. That capper would make a lot more money by making those same bets with an off shore book. It's a mathematical fact.

Look at it this way. ProLine offers you 6.00 for your wager, and Pinny offers you 7.00 for the same bet. You decide to use ProLine for $100 and you win. Congrats, but you would have $100 more in your pocket if you went with Pinny.

What edge players do is to look for the situations where ProLine is paying more than the sports books. It's about getting maximum return.

A 3 teamer on proline is equivalent to a -140 line vs -110 online. Who beats that long term? But I'm sure most on this site will say no way will I play single game betting from the OLG if they offer -120 line.

People need to understand that the lines that Vegas puts out aren't the holy grail. If online a team is +8.5, but +9.5, or even +10.5 on Proline, it doesn't give you an edge to play the higher number. If we could play one game tickets, I'd be more willing to come around on the idea.

ChinMusic I'm just curious to know of some of the teams you posted with edges how much of an edge that is over online when for example a 4 teamer pays out $1331 on $100 and proline pays out $1000 on the same bet. You are getting points generally with the dogs on proline but wouldnt the higher payout online justify an online play over these extra points proline is giving you. Also take for example Partybets where for every dollar wagered I get a 2.5% bonus which will increase higher based on the dollar levels bet. This in effect will reduce the -110 juice even lower. Point I'm getting at is that before factoring in the proline edges with points you have to considder what online has to offer with bonuses and much higher payouts at all levels of betting.

As I said in another thread today, capping the game only works if you are smarter than the sports books. But most people aren't. That's why the sports books can continue in business.

If someone has a 3000 game history of beating a sports book, I would acknowledge that he would add some value to the edge plays by capping the game. But really, that guy probably doesn't care much about ProLine. He's too busy getting rich beating the sports books.

But most sports books dont advertise parlay plays much and the reason being is that they prefer players to play straight bets and if you posted in this forum or any other betting forum out there the overwhelming response would be parlays are sucker bets but the fact is you will win more money with parlays long term online over straight bets with the same percentage of winning providing its over 50%. Online books prefer customers to play single bets and long term they believe customers will lose with poor money management even if they are beating the juice.

Its good you point out though that someone needs a 3000 game history of beating a sports book to be considered successful enough of having an edge. I wouldnt put it that high myself but I really think someone needs a 1000 game history (roughly 300 games per year over 4 years) to have a good sampling of data on where you stand.

When ProlinePlayer started posting his edge plays I was a bit suprised after only a few days he seemed to say he wasn't doing too well and seems to have packed it in. Maybe hes got other things on the go but I questioned him if he would have a 10% roi after a couple of months and I believe he said he would probably be in that area.
Have you yourself "Chin" tracked how many games you have went playing edges during a given year and been in the "Red." Also what would you say was your overall ROI playing edges on proline lifetime or in an given year. Just curious about a rough % not interested in money figures. Thanks.

[Chin Music]

Originally Posted by Cash Calloway

Have you yourself "Chin" tracked how many games you have went playing edges during a given year and been in the "Red." Also what would you say was your overall ROI playing edges on proline lifetime or in an given year. Just curious about a rough % not interested in money figures. Thanks.

I will get in trouble if I answer this one, from those who think I make stuff up, or exaggerate. So I will leave it alone for now. I will have to think about how to respond to the rest of your post, as there's certainly a lot there to talk about but it's late and I'm barely staying awake.

[ProlinePlayer]

Originally Posted by Cash Calloway

A 3 teamer on proline is equivalent to a -140 line vs -110 online. Who beats that long term? But I'm sure most on this site will say no way will I play single game betting from the OLG if they offer -120 line.




ChinMusic I'm just curious to know of some of the teams you posted with edges how much of an edge that is over online when for example a 4 teamer pays out $1331 on $100 and proline pays out $1000 on the same bet. You are getting points generally with the dogs on proline but wouldnt the higher payout online justify an online play over these extra points proline is giving you. Also take for example Partybets where for every dollar wagered I get a 2.5% bonus which will increase higher based on the dollar levels bet. This in effect will reduce the -110 juice even lower. Point I'm getting at is that before factoring in the proline edges with points you have to considder what online has to offer with bonuses and much higher payouts at all levels of betting.




But most sports books dont advertise parlay plays much and the reason being is that they prefer players to play straight bets and if you posted in this forum or any other betting forum out there the overwhelming response would be parlays are sucker bets but the fact is you will win more money with parlays long term online over straight bets with the same percentage of winning providing its over 50%. Online books prefer customers to play single bets and long term they believe customers will lose with poor money management even if they are beating the juice.

Its good you point out though that someone needs a 3000 game history of beating a sports book to be considered successful enough of having an edge. I wouldnt put it that high myself but I really think someone needs a 1000 game history (roughly 300 games per year over 4 years) to have a good sampling of data on where you stand.

When ProlinePlayer started posting his edge plays I was a bit suprised after only a few days he seemed to say he wasn't doing too well and seems to have packed it in. Maybe hes got other things on the go but I questioned him if he would have a 10% roi after a couple of months and I believe he said he would probably be in that area.
Have you yourself "Chin" tracked how many games you have went playing edges during a given year and been in the "Red." Also what would you say was your overall ROI playing edges on proline lifetime or in an given year. Just curious about a rough % not interested in money figures. Thanks.

Sorry that I've been unavailable for the past few days but I do have every intention of continuing my daily picks thread.

Went off to Paris for a week - had planned to continue posting from there but between partying with my friends and the time difference haven't managed it.

Had some free time so thought I'd check in - seems like Chin is holding things down for the edges camp in my absence.

Back soon,

PLP