College Basketball Idea

[Gregger]

After receiving an idea in my last thread from another poster, I looked into the idea and I believe it to be quite good. This is why I like CONSTRUCTIVE criticism and ideas rather than people who just say "You'll lose money". If that's all you have to say.....then you're not adding anything positive. Anyways....I've been doing some number crunching, and as long as I didn't miss anything this is what I came up with:

In this study I was only interested in looking at college basketball games and only betting on Visitor, Tie, or Home wins. None of the V+ or H+. Also, the only games I was interested in were games where the favored team had odds of at least 2.20 and the underdog had odds not higher than 3.10.

My original thread was about how I had boxed the V & H outcomes of 3 college BB games, and the other poster's idea was that I box the favored team and the tie outcomes instead.

In the last few weeks I found 14 games on Pro Line that had these odds. In 10 of those 14 games, the outcome was either a tie or the favored team won. In the other 4 games, the underdog won. So using the strategy of boxing the favored team and the tie outcomes would appear to be pretty good idea. At least during the last 14 of the games with the odds I was looking for. The reason I look for the odds stated above is because these odds offer a good payout to make sure that I at least cover my bets and make a little money even if the ticket with the lowest odds wins. For example:

2.20 x 2.20 x 2.20 = 10.64

To box the tie and favored team outcomes of 3 games will take 8 tickets to cover all the combinations. So if I spent $10 per ticket, thats a total of $80. With the odds above, if one of my tickets is a winner the least I will be paid out is $106.40 resulting in a $26.40 profit.

In order for me to lose, not only does the underdog have to win the game, he has to win by at least 6 points.

so anyways, I'll probably wind up putting this into play this weekend on Saturday, when there are plenty of NCAA basketball games to choose from, and see how it works out.

Any thoughts?

[dogboy]

I still think you have to find two keys you really like and then H/T or V/T the CBK game. It's two tickets that way. The CBK game should be one that you really think will hit either of the two outcomes though. I like to use games that already show an edge one way or another. If there's already a 2 basket advantage for the favourite on ProLine, go that way and bet the win with the tie back up.
And early in the season, you really can't count on these teams to do what they're supposed to. You can see more "upsets" at this time of year. The kids show up to play more consistently in conference play in the new year. It's thus a better strategy at that point in time.

[Pigeon]

A lot of your strategies involve betting a lot of a low risk-low reward systems. You aren't factoring in when a loss DOES happen. Given the scenario from your OP, you're betting $80 to win $26.40, which means when a loss does occur, you now have to win 3 straight times, just to get back to even.


Good luck

[rhgraham]

I don't play proline often if you're spending $80 play multiple 3 team ps using 1-2 key games. JMO

[lechu]

Did you try point spread rotation with at least 10 games on list using the format 3/5 3/8
then all 4, 5, 6,7, 8 games.

[Prolineus Veneficus]

Originally Posted by dogboy

I still think you have to find two keys you really like and then H/T or V/T the CBK game. It's two tickets that way. The CBK game should be one that you really think will hit either of the two outcomes though. I like to use games that already show an edge one way or another. If there's already a 2 basket advantage for the favourite on ProLine, go that way and bet the win with the tie back up.
And early in the season, you really can't count on these teams to do what they're supposed to. You can see more "upsets" at this time of year. The kids show up to play more consistently in conference play in the new year. It's thus a better strategy at that point in time.

i would have to agree....Gregger if you play that strategy i would recommend playing a double key as dogboy states and then do 4 tickets splitting the outcomes of 2 bball games....if your double key hits you should be able to pull out at least 1 winner if not 2.....this is a strategy i employ once the conference games get going....i love me some bball ties....this time of the year is the best....you get your bball games thru the week and pair them with strong nfl plays...can turn a very good profit once in a while....this is the only time of the year when i do 4 plays on a ticket....2 or 3 bball games and 1 or 2 nfl games...$$$$ bol gregger

[sjmartin57ca]

Gregger, don't start your system till Jan when teams start playing conference games, right now the good teams are sandbaggin playin nice easy teams from outta there conference. BOL & Cheers Steve

[ProlinePlayer]

Originally Posted by dogboy

I still think you have to find two keys you really like and then H/T or V/T the CBK game

How about this .....
Why not just find 3 games you like, play it, and not bother with the V/T or H/T silliness.

It is hard enough to find 1 good play in the 3 choices offered in a game. Thinking that the OLG has got the line so wrong that 2 of the 3 choices in a single game are good bets is very unlikely.

PLP

[Cash Calloway]

Originally Posted by Gregger

After receiving an idea in my last thread from another poster, I looked into the idea and I believe it to be quite good. This is why I like CONSTRUCTIVE criticism and ideas rather than people who just say "You'll lose money". If that's all you have to say.....then you're not adding anything positive. Anyways....I've been doing some number crunching, and as long as I didn't miss anything this is what I came up with:

In this study I was only interested in looking at college basketball games and only betting on Visitor, Tie, or Home wins. None of the V+ or H+. Also, the only games I was interested in were games where the favored team had odds of at least 2.20 and the underdog had odds not higher than 3.10.

My original thread was about how I had boxed the V & H outcomes of 3 college BB games, and the other poster's idea was that I box the favored team and the tie outcomes instead.

In the last few weeks I found 14 games on Pro Line that had these odds. In 10 of those 14 games, the outcome was either a tie or the favored team won. In the other 4 games, the underdog won. So using the strategy of boxing the favored team and the tie outcomes would appear to be pretty good idea. At least during the last 14 of the games with the odds I was looking for. The reason I look for the odds stated above is because these odds offer a good payout to make sure that I at least cover my bets and make a little money even if the ticket with the lowest odds wins. For example:

2.20 x 2.20 x 2.20 = 10.64

To box the tie and favored team outcomes of 3 games will take 8 tickets to cover all the combinations. So if I spent $10 per ticket, thats a total of $80. With the odds above, if one of my tickets is a winner the least I will be paid out is $106.40 resulting in a $26.40 profit.

In order for me to lose, not only does the underdog have to win the game, he has to win by at least 6 points.

so anyways, I'll probably wind up putting this into play this weekend on Saturday, when there are plenty of NCAA basketball games to choose from, and see how it works out.

Any thoughts?

If you want to find out how this system will make out you can go to any of the sites that have moneyline NCAA BB results from this year or previous years and grab a significant sample of games at the right odds and test it out. No money needs to be spent if the results are not profitable.