NFL Conference Championships-Sun Jan 22/2012

[cptkirk321]

Sunday, January 22 2012

1 Nfl 3:00 PM Baltimore NewEngland 580 430 370 135 170 50.5 180 160 -7.5
2 Nfl 6:30 PM NyGiants SanFran 300 240 280 230 290 42.5 160 180 -2.5

[cptkirk321]

Baltimore/NewEngland over 50(Regular Play)
NewEngland -7(Smaller Play, currently haven't made this play yet waiting on to see if it drops to under 7 come closer to gametime)

Last weekend nailed the Pats play but lost on the Ravens play and my one big fear going into that game came true, which was I had to trust the Ravens offense to cover an almost double digit spread against a good defense and they sputtered for most of the day and then blew a goalline chance.
This week I will be taking the over as the bigger of the two plays for a couple of reasons. First as bad as the Ravens offense can look at times this week they won't be playing nearly as good of a defense as they faced last week in the Texans that I think this should allow them to look a bit better on offense. However, the Pats defense I don't believe will be pushovers this week as they had for most of the season and this IMO is the reason why I like the Pats to win this game and get the cover. Second reason for the over, is the other side of the ball I believe the Ravens are going to have a pretty tough time once again trying to cover the middle of the field with Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski and with what I do believe will be a less than 100% Ed Reed I think this job gets even more difficult. If the Ravens don't find that pass rush to get Brady concerned I really believe Brady will have success passing the ball and scoring points.
In the end I think both offenses will do enough respectively that they get to reach the over and IMO the Pats defense will just do a bit more against this sporadic Ravens defense with a timely turnover or two that will be the difference for the Pats cover as well.


NYGiants/SFran over 42 (Bit bigger than Regular Play)
NYGiants ML +120 (Regular Play)

In all honesty I really don't understand this total and what has happened to this total throughout the week with it continuing to drop but I will take it.
I have now come to the conclusion that maybe stars do align, or a team can be one of fate because that is how I look at the NYGiants. First off the schedule at the end of the year worked out great for them, then they got a fraud of a playoff team with the Falcons, and then last week played a Packers team that made more mistakes, dropped more passes and had Rodgers miss more receivers than they had in this one game compared to adding up all of these for the 16 game regular season. It was the end of the first half where I decided that stars or fate has taken hold as I watched the Giants really just trying to run out the half and nail a huge ass run and got out of bounds and then because of that run be close enough for a hail mary that works about 2% of the time land in the Giants receivers arms for a half ending hail mary TD. Then after getting everything to fall their way to end the season, then that Falcons team, and then last weeks game now instead of heading to the Superdome they get to go to SFran instead, no offense to the Niners but the GMen wouldn't have much of a chance IMO going into the Superdome.
Now why the over, simple both of these offenses will get their opportunities to move the ball against the other defense. As I mentioned last week the Niners have had a great year but when they have faced top notch QBs they have been thrown on pretty good all year and last week Brees was able to rack up 400 yards through the air, this week they face a QB in Eli who has heated up at the right time and now they have found their running game which was AWOL for most of the year. That combination will force the Niners to have to play honest and respect the run which will give the Giants receivers more opportunities in the passing game. As for the Niners they have shown all year when at home they can move the ball and put points up on the board as they have averaged 27 points/game at home this year including putting up 27 against this same Giants team earlier in the season. Now I expect them to at times to find success but I don't believe they will find as much success as the Giants offense will. This week they will be facing a Giants team that unlike the Saints don't need to bring extra bodies to get pressure on Alex Smith and I am pretty damn sure unlike the Saints because of not having to bring extra bodies they will account for Vernon Davis alot more than the Saints did. But there will be times IMO that the Giants won't be able to get at Smith that he will have some time and that is when they will make the plays they need to get their points.
Other part to this over is I am expecting the defenses and possibly the special teams to get a turnover here or there and put some points up on the board themselves or give their offenses short fields to work with as I believe both of these QBs at times can get flustered and try to force a throw here or there.
In the end I think the Giants defense will do a little bit more than the Niners that they will pull off the road win and both teams will help in the over coming through.

[cptkirk321]

For proline purposes I am pretty much looking at both of the overs as well as the Giants win by 4+ and possible tie backup. Don't see any reason to play the Pats on a proline ticket only paying what they are paying.

[Meeps]

Captain I think the total has been dropping due to fears regarding weather (rain and / or wind) and field conditions (poor drainage at candlestick apparently) due to a rainy few days leading up to the game.
Wet field could stop Giants from getting those yards after catch that they depend on (Nicks and Cruz). In a ground game I like the 49ers and maybe the under.

Will cross over to Quebec and play this:

Baltimore +8.5 (love the fact that NE has not beat a team with a winning record all year; BAL has won SU the last two times that they have been dogs of a TD or more)
NYG/SF Under 43.5
Gore over 82.5 rush yds
Nicks Under 90.5 Receiving yards
8.35x15 = $125

Because I have a terrible track record with these player props, I will do a 100% fade for the same odds (because they have 1.70 odds on both sides for all events) for 5 = $41.

[cptkirk321]

I've looked at the forecast from a couple of different sites for SFran and from what I can tell there will be little wind and mostly cloudy with a small possibility of showers but most of the rain should be ending by Saturday evening. Personally don't see this being much of an issue and if that is the reason for the total dropping then all the better IMO.

Good luck with the Ravens, just a small play for me with the Pats but really don't think this version of the Ravens defense will do enough that their offense won't have to play catchup. Ravens IMO are going to have a horrible time trying to match up with the tightends and Welker especially if they can't get a reliable pass rush on Brady.

[cptkirk321]

100/970

Baltimore/NewEngland o50.5
NYGiants/SFran o42.5
NIowa win 6+
NYGiants win 4+ (50/565 Backup NYGiants/SFran tie)

10/230

ClevelandSt win 6+
VaTech/Virginia tie
NIowa win 6+
Baltimore/NewEngland o50.5
NYGiants/SFran o42.5

Good luck to everybody today

[darth wager]

Originally Posted by cptkirk321

100/970

Baltimore/NewEngland o50.5
NYGiants/SFran o42.5
NIowa win 6+
NYGiants win 4+ (50/565 Backup NYGiants/SFran tie)

10/230

ClevelandSt win 6+
VaTech/Virginia tie
NIowa win 6+
Baltimore/NewEngland o50.5
NYGiants/SFran o42.5

Good luck to everybody today

2 nice looking tickets, Capt, good luck

[Cash Calloway]

I played Balty win by 4 and under along with Giants and over. Went back at 2:30 to play some more of this combo and it was maxed out but Balty with the under and NY/SF over still available so hit some more of that. This is whern I like to play proline with the o/u and the teams something not available online.