NFL Divisional Weekend-Jan 14/15 2012

[cptkirk321]

Saturday, January 14 2012

1 Nfl 4:30 PM NewOrleans SanFran 240 180 320 280 340 47.5 155 190 +3.5
2 Nfl 8:00 PM Denver NewEngland 900 600 500 110 120 50.5 160 180 -13.5

Sunday, January 15 2012

3 Nfl 1:00 PM Houston Baltimore 620 450 380 130 160 36.5 160 180 -8.5
4 Nfl 4:30 PM NyGiants GreenBay 620 450 380 130 160 53.5 160 180 -8.5

FAVES IN BOLD

[cptkirk321]

NewOrleans -3.5(Regular)

As most of you know I originally was on SFran until I went to put another bet in yesterday morning and realized that when I did this game up I flipped a couple of numbers which gave me SFran, but after fixing the mistake I realized I was wrong and it came out with NewOrleans.

Saints offense on the road is not nearly as productive as when at home but when you look deeper into the Niners defensive numbers you quickly see even though they have great numbers when they actually have faced the better QBs in the league they have had some struggles in defending the pass. And this is an area that I think the Saints can take advantage of when it comes to facing the Niners 3rd and 4th defensive backs with the depth that the Saints have had wide receiver and with Graham in the tightend position. Other side of the ball the Saints defense in the second half of the season have played much better and there still are question marks with the Niners on the offensive side of the ball but IMO the difference will be the Saints defense will make that one key stop, get that one key turnover to get the win and cover. Like the Saints to win by a td.

NewEngland -13.5(Regular Play)
Denver/NewEngland over 50.5(Smaller Play)

Wrote this in another thread in regards to the total but alot of why I like the Pats are also covered in here.

Originally Posted by cptkirk321

The one game that I do like for the over is the Pats/Broncos game. Broncos defense got torched by the Pats in the first game partly because of Broncos turnovers but also because of the fact that the Broncos defense doesn't match up well against the Pats offense. Broncos do two things pretty well, they can get pressure and they are pretty good on the outside receivers. The problem is the Pats offense doesn't go through the outside receivers but through the tightends and Welker and there is where the Broncos don't match up well at all. Even in last weeks game against the Steelers Heath Miller was continuously open throughout that game and I couldn't figure out why Ben wasn't going to him more. The other area that I believe the Pats will find success once again is with some timely runs, with the Broncos having to focus on the passing game more the Pats were able to get some nice runs off in that past game and I expect the same again. Other side of the ball I still believe the Broncos will be able to score some points on the Pats defense, but not enough to keep this game close but enough to help in the over.

Pats have gone two years now losing their first playoff game and I fully expect that they will make sure they are not taking anything for granted on Saturday night. Again I think the Broncos will still find some points but in the end the Pats offense will make sure this game is out of hand before any 4th quarter miracles could happen IMO.

Baltimore -8.5(Regular)
Green Bay -8.5(Regular)

Got to run and don't have time to post my reasons on these 2, will do that on Saturday when I have a bit more time.

[cptkirk321]

Baltimore -8.5(Regular)

Out of the 4 games this weekend this is the one I am the most nervous about, so watch the other 3 go up in flames and the Ravens end up winning by 40, LOL!!!

Lets go back a few weeks to October 16th when these same Houston Texans went on the road to play the Baltimore Ravens, the score that week ended up 29-14 Baltimore. In that game you had a healthy Matt Schaubb playing but had no Andre Johnson, fast forward to now. Today you have a somewhat healthy AJ, but you have no Matt Schaubb and will be going with your 3rd string rookie QB in TJ Yates. In that game back on Oct 16th the Texans didn't even manage to hit 300 yards in total offense, started to become a one dimensional team as the game went on with Schaubb throwing the ball almost 40 times and really struggled. Last week I was all over the Texans because I felt the Bengals were a fraud, and I felt that with the Houston defense and playing at home having the young rookie at QB was not going to be as much of an issue, this week however, not the case as I do believe the game at some point will be put into the arm of Yates and this to me is the difference in this game. Reason I am a bit nervous though is because of the Texans defense and more importantly the sporadic nature of the Ravens offense. Saving grace though is the Ravens offense for the most part is alot better at home than on the road, at home averaging 27 points/game and I believe that the Ravens defense will help in the scoring whether directly from a turnover, or at the very least giving the offense a few series with great field position because I do believe if the Texans are backed up in their own end early Kubiak will play it safe and try not to have Yates force something early. In the end I think the Ravens defense will do more than the Texans defense and the Ravens can pull out the double digit victory, but just in case I will back this one up on my point spread ticket with a smaller wager



Green Bay -8.5(Regular)

IMO this is a complete line setup to pull in Giants money. Alot of the talk I have heard from talking heads this week on radio and tv is how the Giants have turned it around in the past few weeks, this is reminding people of their Super Bowl run a couple fo years ago, etc. etc. Well lets truly at what they have done the past few weeks. First off they beat a fraud playoff team in the Falcons at home last week, week before beat a Cowboys team that is jekyl and hyde with an injured Romo at home, week before beat a questionable Jets team at home(even though is was classified as a road game), week before lost to the Skins at home, week before needed 2 tds in the final few minutes to beat those same Cowboys, week before lost to these Packers which was the tailend of a 4 game losing streak. Now what in that batch of games says this team is for real? IMO nothing more than they had the good fortune of scheduling.

Now lets go back to that Giants/Packers game a few weeks ago. In that game it took a last play field goal by the Packers to walk out of the Meadowlands with a 37-34 victory. Now here is the interesting part of that game from a betting standpoint, in that game the Packers were around 7 point favorites and obviously lost the game ATS by only winning by 3, now fast forward to now where the Giants are getting all of this love, have already lost to the Packers by only 3 points on a last second field goal and now the linemakers have decided that the Packers will open up as 9 point faves? This line makes absoloutely no sense and IMO is a line to draw as much Giant money as they can but in the end the Packers get the win and the cover and will be hosting the NFC Championship game next Sunday.

[cptkirk321]

As it turns out I guess I could of waited since the OLG made no changes to the lines from early to Friday, oh well.

Originally Posted by cptkirk321

Its been a very good past few weeks and my plan was to go for a big ticket for this weeks games. Have decided to split my plays with the early lines that are being offered and will play the other half bet when the new lines come out tomorrow. Reason I am doing this is I can live with the lines that are out there right now and the one game I think may go against me I would rather be on the number right now(NEngland). Don't think I will get much better on the Saints line and if anything move up, and don't see either GBay or Baltimore moving enough to benefit me more than it is now. Like 3 games, and 1 game I am a bit iffy about so I will do a backup ticket on that game.

100/1000

NewOrleans -3.5
NEngland -13.5
GreenBay -8.5
Baltimore -8.5 (25/250 Backup Houston +8.5)

ADDED ANOTHER:

100/1000

NewOrleans -3.5
NEngland -13.5
GreenBay -8.5
Baltimore -8.5 (25/250 Backup Houston +8.5)

[darth wager]

played a ticket with all 4 visitors
Saints -3.5
Broncos +13.5
Texans +9.5
Giants +9.5

[AlbinoRhino]

First of all, GL everyone. Stick it to The Man!

Like a few others I saw while lurking in last week's thread, I went 4/4 and cashed in nicely last week (80/800), hoping we can go back to back. Oddly enough, I hardly ever pay the spreads, but think I will do just that from now on (in college bb, too....)

Taking:

New Orleand -3.5: I know, I know, SF has a fantastic D but, really, they're about to get a wake-up call, IMO. Once the Saints get rolling, they are almost unstoppable. Ask the Texans, who have a pretty darn good D themselves and were shredded by the Saints. The weatherman isn't doing the Niners any favours either. I think the Saints win by at least 10.

Denver +13.5: Logic says I should go with the safe pick and the playoff proven Pats, but Tebow made a pseudo-believer out of me last week. Given NE's pass D, I've got a hard time spotting them 14 points to any playoff team, especally it what is sure to be chilly New England tonight. The Broncs won't win, but New England's suspect pass D should allow them to stay well within the spread, IMO.

Baltimore -8.5: Having a tough time here. Don't think Yates will have nearly the success he did last week; that said, Flacco is going to have his own issues with that Houston D. Given Baltimore's track record at home, my hunch is they will cover. I'll take the Ravens but back it up with another bet on the Texans.

Giants +8.5: One of the best games of the stadium in early December, 38-35 Pack in New York. I know they are at Lambeau, but it's gonna be c-c-c-c-c-cold and Manning should be able to pick apart the GB D. Even with the temperatures, this could be a shootout again and I think the Giants have enough in them to keep it within a TD, if not pull off an upset altogether and win outright.

My picks:

100/1000
NO
DEN
BAL
NYG

50/500
NO
DEN
HOU
NYG

[willm61]

one tickky for fun
NWO -3.5
NE -13.5
HOU +8.5
NYG +8.5

50/500

GLTA!

[Cash Calloway]

Balty/Hou and Pack/Giants are both available on Partybets at 7' for those interested. also helps if you want to hedge a game back the other way on proline. 2% middle

[lightshow]

Nwo -3.5
ne -13.5
hou +8.5
nyg +8.5

[demen_demen]

Sf
den
nyg
hou
50/500

no/sf t
den/ne t
nyg/gb t
hou/bal t
no/sf u
$25/10000+

gl

[cptkirk321]

Let the games begin

[willm61]

Played a 6 play tick here cause I get Greedy/Stoopid sometimes..
1 V NWO U 47.5
2 O 50.5
3 T Hou/Bal
4 H GB U 53.5
xOdds=48.66
20=973.

GL all at the Mall

[moneymaker0069]

every1 on the saints, gotta love it. No respect given to the 9ers, even when you take into effect how mediocre Brees stats are in outdoor stadiums.

[AlbinoRhino]

Originally Posted by moneymaker0069

every1 on the saints, gotta love it. No respect given to the 9ers, even when you take into effect how mediocre Brees stats are in outdoor stadiums.

Yeah, five turnovers and the Niners are up by six. This game should be over with those turnovers. The Saints are beating themselves more than Frisco is doing it. Fumble inside the SF five and a punt return fumble that gave the Niners their second TD.

Niners have a great D, but Brees and Co shooting themselves in the foot.

[AlbinoRhino]

Well, that was a short ticket. Didn't give the SF D enough props, I guess. With that D, they can take down anyone, I think, regardless if NO pulls this out or not.