NFL PROPS CARD 86 - DEN@NE Saturday Jan 14th 8:00 pm

[TyWebb]

Close Date: Jan 14 8:00PM
Play Period: Jan 14 to Jan 14 CARD 86

NO. TEAM/PART PROP. OV OV/UN UN

DEN@NE, J14

1 TBDY PassComp 1.60 24.5 1.80
2 RGRK TotRecpt 1.55 5.5 1.90
3 TOTL FUMBLost 1.90 1.5 1.55
4 TOTL QBscksM 1.55 4.5 1.90
5 GAME LngstPC 1.65 48.5 1.75
6 GAME LngstRSH 1.70 22.5 1.70
7 GAME LngstFGM 1.65 44.5 1.75
8 GAME LngstPTR 1.65 16.5 1.75
9 TOTL FhalfPTS 1.60 24.5 1.80
10 TOTL ShalfPTS 1.60 24.5 1.80

[Allbutbroke]

[prolineinto]

Thanks ABB

[IT"S JUST THAT EASY]

Keys

BRADY and RUSH over

[cptkirk321]

Originally Posted by IT"S JUST THAT EASY

Keys

BRADY and RUSH over

Got to say this number really shocked me when I saw it only being 22.5. Last time these 2 met you had 5 guys go over this number, all 4 of the Broncos running backs and 1 of the Pats running backs and I wouldn't be shocked at all to see both teams get over this number. May have to play a props ticket tonight with that being one of my plays. Good luck to you

[IT"S JUST THAT EASY]

Originally Posted by cptkirk321

Got to say this number really shocked me when I saw it only being 22.5. Last time these 2 met you had 5 guys go over this number, all 4 of the Broncos running backs and 1 of the Pats running backs and I wouldn't be shocked at all to see both teams get over this number. May have to play a props ticket tonight with that being one of my plays. Good luck to you

Thanks you too

Rush over 4 times is my predicton but than again we only need one lol

[Einstein]

Tom Brady Over 24.5 pass completions (1.6)
Brady averages just 22.6 completions per game on the road but average 31.1 completions per game at home and will be facing a weak Denver secondary, not only because of skill but because of recent injuries, and the New England Tight end duo of Hernandez and Gronkowski are mis-matches for this young secondary. I believe EACH tight end will have 6-7 receptions while I expect Welker & Branch to catch 11-13 passes. Denver has some explosive pass rushers, so there will also be 3-5 passes thrown to RB's Ridley and Green-Ellis; add that up and I believe there will be 26-32 pass completions (over 24.5). On top of all that: "Denver punter Britton Colquitt sent an AFC-high 33 attempts inside the opponent's 20-yard line in addition to averaging a solid 47.4 yards per boot during the regular season, while kicker Matt Prater sports one of the strongest legs in football and posted the highest percentage of touchbacks (68.1 percent) on kickoffs this year." To me, this means longer fields for Brady to drive the Patriots down and therefore more pass receptions. The only worry is that New England will be up so much they stop throwing late in the game, but I believe New England will be up 6-10 with a few minutes left in the 4th and Brady will drive down the field for another touchdown; Denver will find ways to keep this game close, for the most part, and field position will help.

Rob Gronkowski over 5.5 receptions (1.55)
Brady may stray away from Welker a bit in this game as he'll be guarded tightly, all game, by pro bowler Champ Bailey. "Denver ranks 28th in pass efficiency defense and the absence of the battle-tested Brian Dawkins due to a neck injury puts a heavy burden on the young safety combo of rookie Quinton Carter and third-year pro David Bruton who'll be spending much of the night attempting to guard Gronkowski and Hernandez. Slot corner Chris Harris, who's played very well as an undrafted rookie find, will likely also have a major role this week if Brady decides to avoid throwing in the direction of 11-time Pro Bowl corner Champ Bailey". I expect 6-8 recpetions from Gronkowski.

Longest Field Goal Made over 44.5 (1.65)Both teams have allowed their opponents to kick long field goals, but neither team has kicked many long ones themself. Denver has only 3 fieldgoals of 45+ yards, in 17 games, while New England has kicked only 7 in 16 games ... thus I believe there is about a 61% chance this game sees no kicks over 44.5 yards. My prediction site says New England gets four touchdowns and 1 field goal and Denver gets two touchdowns and one field goal(31-17 New England); the least amount of field goals projected for any game this weekend (2) ... the next lowest was 4 field goals. New England netted a league-best 47 red-zone touchdowns and if there was a guy who could kick it, it's Gostkowski; so that is also a good sign. Late in the game, because this will likely be a double digit victory, I don't expect any field goals.

$1,000 to win $4,092. To profit $3,092.

Another lean is longest Rush over.

[PHILLYanthropy]

Denver broncos [off ppg: 19.3;def (allowed) ppg: 24.4;fumbles lost: 1st]

2011 stats
offence: Pass 31st (40+: 17th), rush 1st (20+: 3rd), ptr yards 3rd, fgm 29th (40-49= 3for4;50+=1for3)
defence: Pass 18th (40+: 29th), rush 22nd (20+: 21st), sacks 10th

oak (pass def 27th;run def 27th) tebow-comp n/a;sacks 5//mcgahee-rush 3\\thomas-rec n/a
cin (pass def 9th;run def 10th) tebow-comp n/a;sacks 2//mcgahee-rush 101\\ thomas-rec n/a
@ten (pass def 14th;run def 24th) tebow-comp n/a;sacks 1//mcgahee-rush 52\\ thomas-rec n/a
@gb (pass def 32nd;run def 14th) tebow-comp n/a;sacks 1//mcgahee-rush 103\\ thomas-rec n/a
sd (pass def 13th;run def 20th) tebow-comp 4;sacks 0//mcgahee-rush 125\\ thomas-rec n/a
@mia (pass def 25th;run def 3rd) tebow-comp 13;sacks 6//mcgahee-rush 76\\ thomas-rec 3
det (pass def 22nd;run def 23th) tebow-comp 18;sacks 7//mcgahee-rush n/a\\ thomas-rec 1
@oak (pass def 27th;run def 27th) tebow-comp 10;sacks 1//mcgahee-rush 163\\ thomas-rec 1
@kc (pass def 6th;run def 26th) tebow-comp 2;sacks 0//mcgahee-rush 17\\ thomas-rec n/a
nyj (pass def 5th;run def 13th) tebow-comp 9;sacks 1//mcgahee-rush 18\\ thomas-rec 2
@sd (pass def 13th;run def 20th) tebow-comp 9;sacks 1//mcgahee-rush 117\\ thomas-rec 0
@min (pass def 26th;run def 11th) tebow-comp 10;sacks 2//mcgahee-rush 111\\ thomas-rec 4
chi (pass def 28th;run def 5th) tebow-comp 21;sacks 5//mcgahee-rush 34\\ thomas-rec 7
ne (pass def 31st;run def 17th) tebow-comp 11;sacks 4//mcgahee-rush 70\\ thomas-rec 7
@buf (pass def 19th;run def 28th) tebow-comp 13;sacks 4//mcgahee-rush 64\\ thomas-rec 4
kc (pass def 6th;run def 26th) tebow-comp 6;sacks 2//mcgahee-rush 145\\ thomas-rec 3
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
new england patriots [off ppg: 32.1;def (allowed) ppg: 21.4;fumbles lost: 29th]

2011 stats
offence: Pass 2nd (40+: 5th), rush 20th (20+: 31st), ptr yards 29th, fgm 10th (40-49= 9for11;50+=1for2)
defence: Pass 31st (40+: 12th), rush 17th (20+: 10th), sacks 14th

@mia (pass def 25th;run def 3rd) brady-comp 32;sacks 1//welker-rec 8\\gronkowski-rec 6
sd (pass def 13th;run def 20th) brady-comp 31;sacks 2//welker-rec 7\\gronkowski-rec 4
@buf (pass def 19th;run def 28th) brady-comp 30;sacks 0//welker-rec 16\\gronkowski-rec 7
@oak (pass def 27th;run def 27th) brady-comp 16;sacks 1//welker-rec 9\\gronkowski-rec 1
nyj (pass def 5th;run def 13th) brady-comp 24;sacks 4//welker-rec 5\\gronkowski-rec 4
dal (pass def 23rd;run def 7th) brady-comp 27;sacks 3//welker-rec 6\\gronkowski-rec 7
@pit (pass def 1st;run def 8th) brady-comp 24;sacks 3//welker-rec 6\\gronkowski-rec 7
nyg (pass def 29th;run def 19th) brady-comp 28;sacks 2//welker-rec 9\\gronkowski-rec 8
@nyj (pass def 5th;run def 13th) brady-comp 26;sacks 0//welker-rec 6\\gronkowski-rec 8
kc (pass def 6th;run def 26th) brady-comp 15;sacks 3//welker-rec 2\\gronkowski-rec 4
@phi (pass def 10th;run def 16th) brady-comp 24;sacks 1//welker-rec 8\\gronkowski-rec 4
ind (pass def 15th;run def 29th) brady-comp 29;sacks 1//welker-rec 11\\gronkowski-rec 5
@was (pass def 12th;run def 18th) brady-comp 22;sacks 1//welker-rec 7\\gronkowski-rec 6
@den (pass def 18th;run def 22nd) brady-comp 23;sacks 2//welker-rec 4\\gronkowski-rec 4
mia (pass def 25th;run def 3rd) brady-comp 27;sacks 4//welker-rec 12\\gronkowski-rec 7
buf (pass def 19th;run def 28th) brady-comp 23;sacks 4//welker-rec 6\\gronkowski-rec 8

2011 postseason:

Denver broncos
pit (pass def 1st;run def 8th) tebow-comp 10;sacks 0//mcgahee-rush 61\\thomas-rec 4

new england patriots
n/a

[Einstein]

Originally Posted by Einstein

Tom Brady Over 24.5 pass completions (1.6)
Brady averages just 22.6 completions per game on the road but average 31.1 completions per game at home and will be facing a weak Denver secondary, not only because of skill but because of recent injuries, and the New England Tight end duo of Hernandez and Gronkowski are mis-matches for this young secondary. I believe EACH tight end will have 6-7 receptions while I expect Welker & Branch to catch 11-13 passes. Denver has some explosive pass rushers, so there will also be 3-5 passes thrown to RB's Ridley and Green-Ellis; add that up and I believe there will be 26-32 pass completions (over 24.5). On top of all that: "Denver punter Britton Colquitt sent an AFC-high 33 attempts inside the opponent's 20-yard line in addition to averaging a solid 47.4 yards per boot during the regular season, while kicker Matt Prater sports one of the strongest legs in football and posted the highest percentage of touchbacks (68.1 percent) on kickoffs this year." To me, this means longer fields for Brady to drive the Patriots down and therefore more pass receptions. The only worry is that New England will be up so much they stop throwing late in the game, but I believe New England will be up 6-10 with a few minutes left in the 4th and Brady will drive down the field for another touchdown; Denver will find ways to keep this game close, for the most part, and field position will help.

Rob Gronkowski over 5.5 receptions (1.55)
Brady may stray away from Welker a bit in this game as he'll be guarded tightly, all game, by pro bowler Champ Bailey. "Denver ranks 28th in pass efficiency defense and the absence of the battle-tested Brian Dawkins due to a neck injury puts a heavy burden on the young safety combo of rookie Quinton Carter and third-year pro David Bruton who'll be spending much of the night attempting to guard Gronkowski and Hernandez. Slot corner Chris Harris, who's played very well as an undrafted rookie find, will likely also have a major role this week if Brady decides to avoid throwing in the direction of 11-time Pro Bowl corner Champ Bailey". I expect 6-8 recpetions from Gronkowski.

Longest Field Goal Made under 44.5 (1.75)Both teams have allowed their opponents to kick long field goals, but neither team has kicked many long ones themself. Denver has only 3 fieldgoals of 45+ yards, in 17 games, while New England has kicked only 7 in 16 games ... thus I believe there is about a 61% chance this game sees no kicks over 44.5 yards. My prediction site says New England gets four touchdowns and 1 field goal and Denver gets two touchdowns and one field goal(31-17 New England); the least amount of field goals projected for any game this weekend (2) ... the next lowest was 4 field goals. New England netted a league-best 47 red-zone touchdowns and if there was a guy who could kick it, it's Gostkowski; so that is also a good sign. Late in the game, because this will likely be a double digit victory, I don't expect any field goals.

$1,000 to win $4,340. To profit $3,340.

Another lean is longest Rush over.

Sorry, it should have read under 44.5, not over.

[joshua1608]

Hey Einstein, it's a windy day in ne.. Check the weather might affect the fg;

[Einstein]

That's good news as well. Taking the under not the over, made a mistake. Heading to lock them in, in 40.

[PHILLYanthropy]

Don't think is going to be a close game. Like the headline read in DEN after Pats abused the Broncos in their own house earlier this year 'Sorry Tebow. Guess God loves Brady too'...

TICKET 1:
BRADY UN (Think he'll have built too big a lead too early via the deep ball vs a mediocre-at-best DEN pass def. If this is the case, Tom is more than likely to mix in the run a lot in the 2nd half to ice the game)
GRONKOWSKI UN (correlation play: payout is too high for the UN and, considering how weak DEN is at stopping the long pass, he'll likely look to the air for his gains today. That and, if a big lead is built, NE should push the run)
PASS OV (DEN is one of the worst in the league at stopping the big pass. Add to that the Pats own the second worst pass def in the NFL and DEN relies heavily on the BIG BOMB to complete any throws and you've got an OV)
RUSH OV (insulting number: DEN was the best run offence in the NFL for 2011 and they aren't the savviest at stopping big run gains either)

TICKET 2:
FUMBLES OV (DEN fumbled three times last weekend, once by Tebow. DEN owns the worst fumbles lost record in the NFL and both clubs are adept at racking up the sacks. Also, DEN will push ground game as it is their only offensive option other than the deep throw)
SACKS OV (playoff matchup + adept sack defences = just enough for an OV)
FGM UN (windy weather *thanks to joshua1608* in NE tonight plus DEN is the only club likely to have to kick the big one *Broncos are NOT a good kicking club btw* seeing as I don't see too many 3-and-outs forced for the playoff-seasoned Pats via the less than stellar DEN def)
PTR UN (NE is awful at returning punts. DEN is great at returning punts. Who do you think is more likely to be PTRing today: NE-a team that has won 3of4 Superbowls they've competed in over the last decade OR DEN-a team who has virtually no passing offence and gave up 400+ yards in offence to PIT just last wk?)

GAME WRITEUP:

den v NE -13.5
vs SPR: NE
SU: NE
Even Tebow-mania couldn't quell this large a spread - and for good reason. When these two teams squared off in DEN earlier this season, NE not only routed the Broncos 41-23 on their home field, they at the same time put to an end DENs 6-game win streak that had started itself upon the shoulders of it's then invincible QB Timmy T. Heading into this weekend, the Pats own the home field, have rested an extra week, added recent-former Broncos coach Josh McDaniels to their coaching staff and have accumulated 3 Superbowl rings under the tandem of Brady-Belichick in just 4 Superbowl appearances. It is also a fact QB Tom Brady has been quite unstoppable heading into the 2011-12 playoffs, amassing a total of 19 TDs to 2 INTs in the 8 games leading upto this matchup. DEN, on the other hand, conceeded more points this season to opponents than points accumulated and, despite the win, allowed PIT to gain 400+ yards in offence last weekend with a 43% 3rd down conversion rate. NE is a better sack team than PIT and the Broncos fumbled 3 times last week, one of which was attributed to QB Tebow. On home soil, experience well in hand, look for the Pats and their duo of Superbowl MVPs Brady-Branch to put an end to Tebow-mania this weekend.


Good luck out there tonight. E.L.E.

[vinnie]

Originally Posted by joshua1608

Hey Einstein, it's a windy day in ne.. Check the weather might affect the fg;

if its windy brady over.. he will throw those short passes to welker all day long

[borg]

same as last week

got screwed by fumbles ov last week
this week i'm going with a fumbles un backup



Sacks ov
Rush ov

Fum ov . . . . . x 5

Fum un . . . . . x 4


glta

[darth wager]

Fumbles over
Rush over
FG under
PR under

Brady over
Sacks over
Pass under
Rush over