NFL PROPS CARD 87 HOU @ BAL - Sun Jan 15 1:00 PM

[Grizzly Joe]

Football Props

Close Date: Jan 15 1:00PM
Play Period: Jan 15 to Jan 15 CARD 87

NO. TEAM/PART PROP. OV OV/UN UN

HOU@BAL, J15

1 TYAT PassComp 1.65 16.5 1.75
2 JFLA PassComp 1.70 19.5 1.70
3 AFOS RushYD 1.65 82.5 1.75
4 RRIC RushYD 1.65 94.5 1.75
5 TOTL FUMBLost 1.80 1.5 1.60
6 TOTL QBscksM 1.80 5.5 1.60
7 GAME LngstPC 1.75 44.5 1.65
8 GAME LngstRSH 1.60 24.5 1.80
9 GAME LngstFGM 1.60 44.5 1.80
10 GAME LngstPTR 1.70 17.5 1.70
11 TOTL FhalfPTS 1.65 18.5 1.75
12 TOTL ShalfPTS 1.65 18.5 1.75

[Grizzly Joe]

NFL Playoff Preview - Houston (11-6) at Baltimore (12-4)

By Michael Rushton, Contributing NFL Editor

(Sports Network) - The Houston Texans are coming off the first playoff victory in franchise history, but it will take another first to keep their season going.

The Texans have their eyes set on the AFC Championship game, but first they'll need to knock off the Baltimore Ravens for the first time in their 10-year existence Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium in a Divisional Playoff battle between two teams led by versatile running backs and top-five defenses.

As if a matchup with the Ravens wasn't tough enough, AFC North champion Baltimore is also coming off its first postseason bye since 2006.

After capturing the AFC South title with a 10-6 regular season, Houston made its inaugural playoff appearance last Saturday against visiting Cincinnati and used an outstanding defensive effort coupled with a solid running from Arian Foster to notch a 31-10 victory.

Foster scored twice on the ground to help take the pressure off of rookie quarterback T.J. Yates, while first-year defensive end J.J. Watt turned the momentum of the game when he ripped a pass by Cincinnati's Andy Dalton out of the air and took it back 29 yards for a score with 52 seconds left in the second quarter to put Houston up for good.

Houston's defense then shut out Cincinnati in the second half in front of a Reliant Stadium-record crowd of 71,725 to get the Texans back on track after ending the regular season with three losses in a row.

"I really think just pressure," Texans linebacker Brian Cushing said when asked what keyed the defense. "I mean, the crowd couldn't have helped any more. It was just a tremendous environment in there. It was loud. You could tell [Dalton] couldn't communicate as well as he wanted to, and I think after J.J.'s interception [the noise] really got to him a little bit, and we were able to just get pressure on him after that."

Houston should have the tables turned on it this weekend as it visits Baltimore for the second time this season. The Texans made the trip to M&T Bank Stadium back on Oct. 16 and were dealt a 29-14 loss. The Ravens' third-ranked defense limited the Texans to a season low in points and total yards (293), with Foster notching just 49 yards on the ground.

Cushing thinks that the earlier trip to Baltimore should pay off for Houston on Saturday.

"Well, it's familiar. We've been there before, and it's not going to be anything new," the linebacker said. "I'm sure it'll be a little bit louder with the playoff environment. They'll be excited, coming off of a bye, but we'll be ready. Going up there, it's going to be a fun, exciting challenge, and we're ready for it."

While Baltimore's defense racked up four sacks in the first meeting, the offense also accounted for 402 yards. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco threw for 305 yards, hitting Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith for passes over 50 yards, and running back Ray Rice rush for 101 yards.

Matt Schaub was the Texans' quarterback for that matchup, but it is now Yates after season-ending injuries to Schaub and backup Matt Leinart. That transition hasn't altered Houston's game plan much, according to Ravens head coach John Harbaugh.

"They're running their offense," he said. "It's the same package that they ran early. T.J. Yates has got his imprint on it, but he looks very similar to the two other guys running it. And that's a credit to their coaches and the system that they run. It's a great system. Obviously, it's been successful for a number of years offensively, so he's plugged in real well."

The Ravens' earlier win over the Texans was part of the club's first-ever undefeated regular season at home. Baltimore averaged 27.4 points per game while yielding only 14.9 in its eight home tilts, and the Ravens also won six of their final seven contests this season, locking up the division and the AFC's second seed with a victory at Cincinnati on Jan. 1.

"We did what we had to do to get that first-week bye," Ravens defensive end Cory Redding said. "We came out of the back stretch 3-1, and that was our main focus. Guys are fighting on the field with big gashes down their legs and almost bruised ribs, messed-up knees and toes and ankles and hands, and yet we still fought our way. Everybody got in that game, that Cincinnati game, and just played because we knew we were fighting for a week off."

The only team in the NFL to have made the postseason in each of the past four years, the Ravens went 6-0 against playoff teams this season and have won their last 10 home games. They are looking to advance to the AFC Championship for the third time in team history and for the first time since 2008.

SERIES HISTORY

As previously noted, the Ravens' victory over the visiting Texans in Week 6 gave Baltimore a 5-0 advantage in the all-time series between the teams. Two of those wins have taken place at M&T Bank Stadium, with the Ravens edging Houston by a 16-15 count in the Charm City in 2005 in addition to this past October's result. The Texans did take Baltimore to overtime when the clubs faced off in Houston last season, scoring 21 straight second-half points before the Ravens ultimately regrouped to record a hard-earned 34-28 decision.

Harbaugh is 2-0 lifetime against the Texans as a head coach and owns a 4-3 career mark in the playoffs, while Kubiak won his postseason debut as a sideline boss with last week's verdict but is 0-3 in his prior encounters with both the Ravens and Harbaugh.

WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL

Even more of a factor once Schaub (2479 passing yards, 15 TD, 6 INT) went down with injury, the Texans have leaned on their run game all season and that did not change versus the Bengals last week. Foster (1224 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 12 TD) ran for 153 yards, including a 42-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter, and Ben Tate (942 rushing yards, 4 TD) added another 37 yards on nine carries for Houston's second-ranked rushing offense (153.0 ypg). With Foster doing most of the heavy lifting, Yates (949 passing yards, 3 TD, 3 INT) threw only 20 passes and completed 11 for 159 yards. One of his throws went to Andre Johnson (33 receptions, 2 TD) for a 40-yard score, and the talented wideout shook off hamstring injuries during the regular season to log five catches for 90 yards in his playoff debut. Foster continued to make plays in the passing game as well, hauling in three strikes for 29 yards. Yates also has a pair of players at the tight end position he can go to in Owen Daniels (54 receptions, 3 TD) and Joel Dreessen (28 receptions, 6 TD), while Kevin Walter (39 receptions, 3 TD) is the other wide receiver. Yates, meanwhile, is aiming to become the third quarterback to win two playoff games in his rookie season, joining Flacco (2008) and the Jets' Mark Sanchez (2009).

With fullback Lawrence Vickers in front of him, Foster will look for a better performance in this game after getting shut down earlier this season by a Ravens defense that allowed just 288.9 total yards per game. Baltimore matched an NFL record by being ranked in the league's top three in points allowed (16.6 ppg) for a fourth straight year and also permitted less than 100 yards per game on the ground for the season. While linebacker Ray Lewis (95 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and safety Ed Reed (52 tackles, 1 sack, 3 INT) are the club's most well- known stoppers, it was outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (70 tackles, 14 sacks, 2 INT) who led the defense all season while setting a career high in sacks. With Suggs and ends Redding (43 tackles, 4.5 sacks) and Pernell McPhee (23 tackles, 6 sacks) wrecking havoc in the backfield, tackle Haloti Ngata (64 tackles, 5 sacks) and linebacker Jameel McClain (84 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) led the charge in hauling down ball carriers. Former Texans safety Bernard Pollard (75 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) played well alongside Reed, while Lardarius Webb (67 tackles, 1 sack, 5 INT) led the corners.

WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL

The Ravens have a similar offense to the Texans in the fact that they count on Rice (1364 rushing yards, 76 receptions, 15 TD) to run the ball and make plays in the passing game. Rice, who even has a former Texan blocking for him in fullback Vonta Leach, led the NFL with a career-high 2,068 yards from scrimmage this season and set a club record in touchdowns while also leading the Ravens in catches. Flacco (3610 passing yards, 20 TD, 12 INT) counts on Rice to keep defenses in check, and that helps open up plays for Boldin (57 receptions, 3 TD) and Smith (50 receptions, 7 TD) down the field. Boldin is set to return after missing the last two games following knee surgery, while Smith ranked third among NFL rookies with 841 receiving yards. Flacco turned in his third straight season of 3,500 passing yards and 20 touchdowns, falling just 13 yards shy of his career high. With the former first-round pick under center, the Ravens ranked 15th in total offense (338.7 YPG). Baltimore also found a pair of players to replace free-agent departure Todd Heap at tight end, using both Ed Dickson (54 receptions, 5 TD) and Dennis Pitta (40 receptions, 3 TD) and getting good production out of each.

Houston's defense got to the level-headed Dalton last weekend to force three turnovers, the biggest coming from the rookie Watt (56 tackles, 5.5 sacks). Cornerback Johnathan Joseph (44 tackles, 4 INT) and safety Danieal Manning (59 tackles, 2 INT) -- a pair of free agent pickups this offseason -- also had interceptions, while Watt had one of four Houston sacks in addition to his pick. Cushing (114 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT) logged a team-high eight tackles for a Houston defense that ranked second in yards allowed (285.7 ypg) and fourth in points given up (17.4 ppg) during the regular season. Manning and Joseph combined for 13 tackles in last week's win, while defensive end Antonio Smith (25 tackles, 6.5 sacks) had five tackles and a sack. Rookie linebacker Brooks Reed (45 tackles, 6 sacks) also got to the quarterback and is part of an strong four-man unit that also includes DeMeco Ryans (64 tackles) on the inside and outside starter Connor Barwin (47 tackles, 11.5 sacks) and has excelled despite losing Mario Williams to a season-ending injury early in the year. Kareem Jackson (42 tackles, 1 INT) starts next to Joseph, while former corner Glover Quin (77 tackles) is the other safety in a secondary that nabbed 17 picks during the regular season.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Manning and Sherrick McManis share kick return duties for the Texans, though neither got a chance to bring one back versus the Bengals thanks to three touchbacks. Wide receiver Jacoby Jones, meanwhile, handles the punts and did have one touchdown among his 49 regular-season returns. Kicker Neil Rackers got just one field goal chance last weekend and made good from 39 yards out, and missed only one try from inside 40 yards during the regular season. Veteran punter Matt Turk (42.7 avg.) was called back into duty when the Texans lost youngster Brett Hartmann to a torn ACL last month, and the 43-year-old came through with a 50.2 average on five punts versus the Bengals.

Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff logged a career-high 122 points this season despite missing a game due to a calf injury. He did miss five of his six tries from 50 yards or longer, however. Punter Sam Koch averaged a career-best 46.5 yards per punt and stuck 21-of-73 kicks inside the 20-yard line, while Webb averaged 10 yards per punt return and took one to the end zone earlier this season. He will now team with Tom Zbikowski to return kicks following a knee injury to primary returner David Reed in Week 16.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Despite their opposite reputations as an offensive threat (Houston) and defensive powerhouse (Baltimore), the Texans and Ravens are pretty similar teams when the numbers are compared. Both ranked middle-of-the-road on offense and rely strongly on their running backs, while the two clubs were stingy in allowing yards and points, ranking right next to one another in both categories. The deciding factors in this game should be experience and home field. The Ravens excel playing in Baltimore and already own a home win over the Texans. On top of that, key members like Flacco, Rice and Reed are all playoff-tested, while Lewis is a former Super Bowl MVP.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Ravens 21, Texans 13

[Allbutbroke]

[PHILLYanthropy]

Houston texans [off ppg: 23.8;def (allowed) ppg: 17.4;fumbles lost: 10th]

2011 stats
offence: Pass 18th (40+: 8th), rush 2nd (20+: 11th), ptr yards 18th, fgm 4th (40-49= 3for4;50+=1for3)
defence: Pass 3rd (40+: 3rd), rush 4th (20+: 10th), sacks 6th

ind (pass def 15th;run def 29th) yates-comp n/a;sacks 1//foster-rush n/a\\daniels-rec 1
@mia (pass def 25th;run def 3rd) yates-comp n/a;sacks 3//foster-rush 33\\daniels-rec 3
@nwo (pass def 30th;run def 12th) yates-comp n/a;sacks 2//foster-rush n/a\\daniels-rec 5
pit (pass def 1st;run def 8th) yates-comp n/a;sacks 0//foster-rush 155\\daniels-rec 5
oak (pass def 27th;run def 27th) yates-comp n/a;sacks 3//foster-rush 68\\daniels-rec 7
@bal (pass def 4th;run def 2nd) yates-comp n/a;sacks 4//foster-rush 49\\daniels-rec 2 *long fgm 48;fumbles lost 1;long ptr 13*
@ten (pass def 14th;run def 24th) yates-comp n/a;sacks 0//foster-rush 115\\daniels-rec 4
jax (pass def 8th;run def 9th) yates-comp n/a;sacks 2//foster-rush 112\\daniels-rec 4
cle (pass def 2nd;run def 30th) yates-comp n/a;sacks 0//foster-rush 124\\daniels-rec 3
@tb (pass def 21st;run def 32nd) yates-comp n/a;sacks 1//foster-rush 84\\daniels-rec 3
@jax (pass def 8th;run def 9th) yates-comp 8;sacks 0//foster-rush 65\\daniels-rec 4
atl (pass def 20th;run def 6th) yates-comp 12;sacks 3//foster-rush 111\\daniels-rec 3
@cin (pass def 9th;run def 10th) yates-comp 26;sacks 5//foster-rush 41\\daniels-rec 7
car (pass def 24th;run def 25th) yates-comp 19;sacks 2//foster-rush 109\\daniels-rec 2
@ind (pass def 15th;run def 29th) yates-comp 13;sacks 4//foster-rush 158\\daniels-rec 1
ten (pass def 14th;run def 24th) yates-comp 4;sacks 3//foster-rush n/a\\daniels-rec n/a
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
baltimore ravens [off ppg: 23.6;def (allowed) ppg: 16.6;fumbles lost: 8th]

2011 stats
offence: Pass 19th (40+: 20th), rush 10th (20+: 11th), ptr yards 14th, fgm 8th (40-49= 7for9;50+=1for6)
defence: Pass 4th (40+: 9th), rush 2nd (20+: 1st), sacks 3rd

pit (pass def 1st;run def 8th) flacco-comp 17;sacks 1//rice-rush 107\\boldin-rec 4
@ten (pass def 14th;run def 24th) flacco-comp 15;sacks 3//rice-rush 43\\boldin-rec 3
@stl (pass def 7th;run def 31st) flacco-comp 27;sacks 2//rice-rush 81\\boldin-rec 7
nyj (pass def 5th;run def 13th) flacco-comp 10;sacks 2//rice-rush 66\\boldin-rec 1
hou (pass def 3rd;run def 4th) flacco-comp 20;sacks 2//rice-rush 101\\boldin-rec 8
@jax (pass def 8th;run def 9th) flacco-comp 21;sacks 3//rice-rush 28\\boldin-rec 4
ari (pass def 17th;run def 21st) flacco-comp 31;sacks 3//rice-rush 63\\boldin-rec 7
@pit (pass def 1st;run def 8th) flacco-comp 28;sacks 3//rice-rush 43\\boldin-rec 7
@sea (pass def 11th;run def 15th) flacco-comp 29;sacks 1//rice-rush 27\\boldin-rec 2
cin (pass def 9th;run def 10th) flacco-comp 17;sacks 1//rice-rush 104\\boldin-rec 1
sf (pass def 16th;run def 1st) flacco-comp 15;sacks 0//rice-rush 59\\boldin-rec 4
@cle (pass def 2nd;run def 30th) flacco-comp 10;sacks 1//rice-rush 204\\boldin-rec 2
ind (pass def 15th;run def 29th) flacco-comp 23;sacks 2//rice-rush 103\\boldin-rec 5
@sd (pass def 13th;run def 20th) flacco-comp 23;sacks 5//rice-rush 57\\boldin-rec 2
cle (pass def 2nd;run def 30th) flacco-comp 11;sacks 1//rice-rush 87\\boldin-rec n/a
@cin (pass def 9th;run def 10th) flacco-comp 15;sacks 1//rice-rush 191\\boldin-rec n/a

2011 postseason:

Houston texans
cin (pass def 9th;run def 10th) yates-comp 11;sacks 2//foster-rush 153\\daniels-rec 2

baltimore ravens
n/a

[darth wager]

some numbers from my online book (that differ from OLG):

Flacco completions 18.5
Foster rushing Yards 84.5
First Half total 17.5
Longest TD score 37.5
Rice rushing yards 84.5

[prolineinto]

have to take sacks and fumbles over as Yates has never faced a situation like this going into Baltimore. Also leaning to longest pass over as it has hit in all 3 prior meetings.

[PHILLYanthropy]

HOU is dead in the water here, no two ways about it. TJ Yates won't be enough for the Texans to hang around on the road in the playoffs vs the dominant home presence of the Ravens...either way, tough ticket #s wise:

TICKET 1:
FLACCO OV (This number will come down to the wire considering the tight play of the Texans secondary. However, BAL should force a number of 3-and-outs from HOU with Yates behind center on the road in a divisional playoff showdown. Not only that but Joey F. loves to put on a throwing show at home vs tough NFL squads)
YATES UN (Vs one of the tightest pass def in the league on the road in the playoffs, look for A TON of handoffs from TJ to RB Foster...who will falter vs the Ravens stellar run def forcing Yates to toss the ball *aka INTs* to the BAL secondary)
RICE OV (Alike with Flacco, hit or miss pick here. HOU can really stunt the run but they always at some point seem to give up the big gain when locked into tight matchups and Rice, tho not a big gain threat, alike with Flacco *yet again* seems to show vs tough run defs on his home turf)
FOSTER UN (Ain't gonna happen here. Ravens have rested too long and, in spite of all his efforts/talent, his run game should be stuffed today based solely on the inability of his young QB to pose a serious passing threat to the BAL secondary)

TICKET 2:
FUMBLES OV (Two clubs with excellent sacks records + inexperienced rookie QB in his first playoff road game + Flacco's inconsistency at finding his open WRs + penchant to run the ball by both squads *Texans only legitimate way to score/BAL attempt to run the clock after taking the lead* = a very tight OV)
SACKS OV (all the reasons stated above minus the emphasis on the run game)
PASS UN (HOU sports a very legit ability to pass deep...but a lot of that number stems from the play of QB Matt Shaub. Vs the 4th best pass def in the NFL who knows the opponents only chance to impale their pass def is via their rookie QB airing it out, the UN should be the stronger of the two plays here. BAL will look to play the short game to run the clock and not test the superb play of the HOU secondary, particularly CB Jonathan Joseph)
RUSH OV (correlation play: BAL RB Rice loves to show up at home vs tough run def and is known to break at least 1 in many of these tight contests. If not, HOU Foster still has a SLIGHT chance to break free vs the stout run def of the Ravens based on his immense talents alone)


GAME WRITEUP:

hou v BAL -8.5
vs SPR: BAL
SU: BAL
And so comes to an end the Texans first playoff season. Minus their star QB since week 10, and spotting a 5th round pick of the 2011 Draft in his place, HOU accomplished much more than could have ever been dreamed this season by still making the playoffs and, in spite of their obvious setbacks, winning a Wild Card game to boot. That will all come to an end this weekend in BAL. The Ravens were an outstanding 8-0 on home field this season, winning those showdowns by an average of near 2 TDs and permitting opposing RBs only 92 yards/game on average over the course of 2011 regular season. Vs 2011-12 playoff bound clubs, BALs numbers get even better. The Ravens conceeded just 2 TDs to 2011-12 playoff-bound teams all year, allowing none of their RBs to run for more than 50+ in those game. HOU 3-4 defence will be sure to push the Ravens to run the ball more so than usual this weekend. However, that is far from a hindrance for BAL. RB Ray Rice ran for 101 yards when these teams squared off in week 6 this season while Texans RB Arian Foster amassed just 49 yards himself. BAL went on to win that game by 15 points and don't be shocked if it happens again this time around. When inexperienced QB T.J. Yates throws for more than 30+ passes, he averages more INTs than TDs.


Have to think all BAL players are OV today or no play at all. BAL likely to kill the Texans in time of possession considering all the detracting factors for HOU as a whole this afternoon. Good luck out there today. E.L.E.

[Allbutbroke]

The Casino has sacks at 4.5 in this one........might be worth a trip for some. Too far for me.

[baseballcoach]

2 Keys...

Flacco Over
Rice Under

(2 teams with ausome run defenses, would rather take Rice Under with the higher number, plus getting 10 more yards as someone noted he is at 84 online)

GL Everyone!

[B2]

Where's Einstien when u need his picks ,the guy is amazing with his stats wakey wakey Einstien ,need ur stats

[darth wager]

Yates under
Sacks over
Pass under

Rice over
Fumbles over
Rush over
Punt Return under

[SmarterBettor]

Keys:
Fumbl Over 1.5
Sacks Over 5.5
(3.24x)

w/ 2 of 4
FG Over 44.5
Rush Over 24.5
Flacco Over 19.5
2nd Half Over 18.5

8.29x - 9.09x [6] $5 tix

[bettingman]

Punt ova
Fumbles ova
sacks ova
$50

focusing my cash flow more towards GB/NY game BOL everyone

[Allbutbroke]

Me too......putting more of my pennies on game 2.

Yates over
Second half over
PTR over

[Slammer]

Foster under
fumbles under
punt ret over

4.7x for 0.5 units