Reverse money trend NFL wk17

[ThaBusdriver]

The very nature of "sport" since the dawn of the contest has been defined by wagering. Throughout history wars have been fought, kingdoms have been won or lost, and hearts have been broken, in our arenas, and in our living rooms. Sport exists because people wager. Sports books exist because people wager, and then lose, as these losses make sports books profitable.
The nature of the wager is defined by our desire to win. Wagers play such an important part in sports, modern and ancient. We wager on the outcome of an event, and the individual plays which ultimately define an outcome, are nothing more than wagers themselves. However, the reason we wager, is because we believe the outcome of an event will be one sided. We use many tools to pedict these outcomes. We looke at individual matchups on the field, weather, stats, injuries, on and off the field distractions (like Rex Ryan's big mouth). When compiled, all these criteria add up to one simple term, that is "motivation". So if the greatest motivation is what defines an outcome, and the greatest motivater is the all mighty dollar, then an analysis on the wagers placed on sporting events provides valuable criteria on the prediction of the end result, along with stats, injuries, weather etc.

[ThaBusdriver]

That being said. There are three possible winners when the analysis of a wager is tallied. The "sharps", those of us who like to consider ourselves smarter bettors. The "squares", those of us who "take the better team" or "use our sport's gut". And the "screws" who on the whole must win most weeks in order for the "sharps" and "squares" to continue to have a forum.

This week the screws are already making moves.
Ind/Jak, money is onesided on Jak, the line is down a point
NYJ/Mia money on Mia, the line is down a point
Bal/Cin money (split) slightly favours Bal, the line is down 1/2 a point
The divison of money will change throughout the week, as will the lines. I will post all 16 picks by 11am sunday, and with a bit of luck we'll smash the sports books, and take out bookies to school.

[big boy]

So far there are 3 teams that follow this criteria in my opinion:

Dallas +3, only 29% of the public on them, my best play this week.

2 more to consider:
Washington +9.5, 31% of bublic
Arizona +3, 19% of public

Its only Tuesday so lets see how lines continue to move

[ThaBusdriver]

The screws are no longer satisfied with miami money and have begun to move the line to attract jets action. They are however, still satisfied with bettors on Jacksonville, and Baltimore. There are two more games to add to the list. Money is on the Saints and the line keeps falling. There is a signifcant 1.5 pt swing keeping the money on NWO. The same can be said for Atlanta. Money is on the Falcons and the line keeps dropping. So there are four games shaping up for the weekend, consider taking Car, Ind, Tam,and Cin. Or at least stay off the games if you can't bet the dogs. I will continue to post updates, and will post my selections for all 16 contests sunday morning before 11am.

[proball]

Busdriver put only games what you will play if you put all games and win 10 of 16 you will say not to bad,point is put only five wining games on ticket.(that is my problem,most time I did put 4.)

[ThaBusdriver]

It's tough to turn 10-6 (62.5%) into proline profit. Go 12-4, and your chances improve drastically. I play one 12 game parlay every week for five bucks and use those 12 in different combinations of 3 and 4 gamers to hopefully generate a profit. my picks will be ranked first to last in order of confidence, with obsure line movements as the main (not the only) criteria to denote this ranking. When I go to lose my money on sunday I normally eliminate to most likely (in my opinion) and the three least likely events from my betting structure. I'm new to the forum, however i can say honestly that this "system" has netted me over $1200 in the last 4 weeks on nfl games.

[ThaBusdriver]

1) det at gby. line opens at 3.5, money starts coming in at 60-40gby has gone the other way. we now sit at det-4.5 because of the public. olg is offering detroit cheap. it's like an invitation to a tupperware party, you know no matter what this is going to suck. GBY+3 all the way. 2)was at phi. line opens at -9phi money is in on phi and now sits at -8?!?!take was 3)sf@stl take the home dog stl
4)car@nwo. line is down -2.5 pts from tues. They keep making it easier to take the saints and money's already on them?!? i'll play panthers
5)chi@min da bears belong in a circus. take minny to finnish with pride
6)nyj@mia money in on ryan@co. the line moves to encourage you to take them.. it's been back and forth all week i'm not buying. proline is trying to drive money off mia so i'll take em
7)sea @arz i'll take the points here as well, go seahawks
8) sd@oak chargers are pissed take em
9)kcy @den i have it on good authority (not WP) that den is going down. Kcy sends tebow into obscurity and i get points? am i dreaming?
10)dal@nyg on of the rare times i'll agree ith the public. dallas is done. go giants
11) buf@ne don't ask. take buf
12)ind@jak see above, take ind
13)pitt@cle tha brownies are finnished and they know it
14)the next three don't matter to me. i'm not touching them but here are my picks anyway Ten, Cin, Tby gl to all takers

[Allbutbroke]

How are you able to determine who is moving the lines.....sharps, squares or otherwise...vs. the books moving lines themselves? Seems to me, the only one who knows for sure is the books themselves.

[ThaBusdriver]

Originally Posted by Allbutbroke

How are you able to determine who is moving the lines.....sharps, squares or otherwise...vs. the books moving lines themselves? Seems to me, the only one who knows for sure is the books themselves.

true, but some books show their % of plays. I follow the lines from early tues morn when the shrap money trickles in. the public plays everything in between up to game day... sharps swing again just b4 game time. the boys inside the lines offer insight, i fade them in most places. but those from LV that call into the show know what the deal is.

[7thHeaven]

Just a quick note: % of plays is not as important as the amount of money placed on any given team and no books will ever release that information, for obvious reasons.

Good luck today Driver, agree with some of your picks, disagree on some others. That's gamblin' and you win some, you lose some.

[Allbutbroke]

Thanks Bus.......great job tracking the lines as thoroughly as you do. Appreciate the info.

[ThaBusdriver]

Originally Posted by Allbutbroke

Thanks Bus.......great job tracking the lines as thoroughly as you do. Appreciate the info.

no problem ABB. On a side note olg is getting all my casino money from last night. 4 tix at 10-1 was, min, sd, kcy for 20*was, gb, mia,nyg for 20*was, gb, sd, kcy for 20*min, gb kc, nyg for 20. 1 tick 8gms 5down was, min,stl,gb,mia(i regret this one) sd, kcy and nyg pays 750, and a 12 gamer, was min buf stl gb mia car pit sea sd kcy nyg 5 pays 5000. also played ties in mia,jak,oak,den and hou with different combos of the max allowed. gl ABB thx for the encouragement

[ThaBusdriver]

Originally Posted by ThaBusdriver

no problem ABB. On a side note olg is getting all my casino money from last night. 4 tix at 10-1 was, min, sd, kcy for 20*was, gb, mia,nyg for 20*was, gb, sd, kcy for 20*min, gb kc, nyg for 20. 1 tick 8gms 5down was, min,stl,gb,mia(i regret this one) sd, kcy and nyg pays 750, and a 12 gamer, was min buf stl gb mia car pit sea sd kcy nyg 5 pays 5000. also played ties in mia,jak,oak,den and hou with different combos of the max allowed. gl ABB thx for the encouragement

1 second half collapse was bad enough but 4! my beloved bills included?!