THU FEB 2 2012 - Ontario Poorline

[Allbutbroke]

Originally Posted by Grizzly Joe

This is an excellent post, well said bud.

I've heard CM say before that he doesn't have to waste time capping a game because he let's the edge determine what he will play.

Here is a particular case where the problem with that strat is shown.

It's strange to me that one would risk thousands upon thousand of dollars on a so called 'edge' for a measly few %, with such a small chance of hitting, when that edge may change so quickly based on elements which should be capped.

Agreed......I think a bettor has to at least explore why the edge may exist and in the case the reason was clear. Sometimes the OLG knows exactly what they are doing.

[Allbutbroke]

Originally Posted by Chin Music

If all that is true, then you should be able to beat the sports books. Can you? In my case, I became successful at ProLine after I realized that the books were smarter than I was. I couldn't even beat them at baseball, which is the sport I know best.

What part of what I said isn't true? Please explain.

If I can sum up, you are saying you are not as smart as the sportsbooks but smarter than the OLG. Odd since the OLG forces multi-game wagering on its customers.

Is it really a question of outsmarting the books. They want equal money on both sides of a game and are not telling you at all where to put your money. Perhaps after the lines move one can make assumptions where the books want you to wager because the lines have shifted to fix the imbalance in wagering or sharp activity.

Again, I only have respect for you and enjoy the discussion.

[darth wager]

Added 1 more

Avs
Canucks
Dal/SJ over5.5

[Triballife]

Just wanted to say that I am relishing in the fact that the Habs SUCK this year....Hate that team with a passion...

[TripleThreat]

Originally Posted by TrailerParkBoys

35 Nhl 8:00 PM LosAngeles StLouis 300 230 650 140 180 5.5 220 140

Anyone think the Blues come out rusty tomorrow night? Haven't played since Jan. 24th I believe, that's a long lay off for mid season.

I'm thinking rusty too TPB, it will prob drop to 2.10 by tomorrow's list...

[ProlinePlayer]

Originally Posted by Allbutbroke

Which goes to my point in the basketball thread from yesterday. I can't wrap my head around betting strictly on edges without handicapping the games. IMO it is most helpful to handicap the games first and form an opinion on the game - then if this is inline with the edges, all the better to jump on it. Sometimes the edges are very explainable as in the case. There might be value in a certain edge, but there is no value in losing.

I think too much credit is being given to the book maker lines and not enough to the OLG line makers with this whole edge stuff.
That said, I hope you bring in a bushel of cash today and every day.

I have no interest in getting into the whole edge play thing but with all respect, I think that you even comparing the book linesmakers and those at the OLG is not real.

They (OLG) have no clue. I'm serious, they are so bad at what they do that it actually puzzles me how they can come up with some of their lines.

Don't me fooled by the fact that sometimes their side wins. That's going to happen but it does not indicate that there is skill at work here. For example I could tke a one-sided game and say the dog should be a favorite. And guess what, sometimes the results wii make it look as if I knew something. But the test is in checking a large body of lines and when that is done their failures in the handicapping become clear.

PLP

[steeltowner]

Originally Posted by Triballife

Just wanted to say that I am relishing in the fact that the Habs SUCK this year....Hate that team with a passion...

I couldnt agree with you anymore