Go Back   Sports Handicapping at cappersmall > >

UFC, MMA, Boxing, etc Talk it up, anything related to Boxing, Wrestling, Ultimate Fighting, & all Martial Arts.

Likes Likes:  5
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-16-2019, 08:51 AM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Northeast
Posts: 28,531
Rewards: 12,808,883
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 5256
Likes (Received): 8568
CEJUDO vs DILLASHAW

Who you got?

Is this a good card?

I like that ESPN has MMA but i don't think i have ESPN+. Anyone know how much it is?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-16-2019, 02:32 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
It's like $6 / month ... Even that cheap I refuse to buy it

Dana is a money hungry prick and now all UFC is PPV
__________________
Likes Titan24, PAPPAGIORGIO liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 01-16-2019, 08:59 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
Also, if you are thinking about TJ, keep an eye on his weight ...
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 01-17-2019, 02:32 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
Dillashaw weighed 128 this morning and will probably make weight by tonight. Seems like everything is on track. Says he "feels great"
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 01-17-2019, 04:08 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
The first metric that stands out when looking at this fight is a simple one. These guys tend to win their fights differently: Dillashaw with a 58.3% KO/TKO rate and Cejudo with an 85.7% decision rate. Yet when the closeness of their bouts is quantified, both fighters lean slightly towards being more involved in blowouts with an identical score of 36 (0-100 scale) than the flyweight average of 41.I


For fight positioning, both fighters are generally happy to stand and trade at distance for the majority of a 5-minute round (3:23 Cejudo, 3:59 Dillashaw) while Cejudo tends to spend a few more seconds clinched up and on the ground than Dillashaw.


Every fight starts at distance and since these two guys each have exceptional takedown defense, this one might just stay there. Dillashaw’s the volume striker at distance, throwing 11.3 more head jabs per five minutes in the position (P5M) than Cejudo and 4.5 more power strikes.


Cejudo barely jabs and when he does he lands at a paltry 13% rate. He’s mostly throwing power to the head with a roughly typical flyweight mix to the head, body, and legs (30.7, 5.3, and 2.8 respective attempts P5M). Dillashaw is more body- and leg-centric, and leg attacks are one area he takes a statistical edge against his opponents.


Dillashaw basically lands even with opponents in power to the head and body (9.3 and 3.9 P5M for Dillashaw, 9.4 and 3.8 for opponents). He gets his distance striking differential edge with +1.1 on head jabs and +1.8 on power to the legs P5M, but his biggest edge is that when he connects solid, opponents are likely to drop. His three knockdown metrics (percent rounds, rate, and percentage) are between 2.5-6.0x the featherweight average (yes, I know he’s a bantamweight) while Cejudo drops foes between 1.2-2.0x. Cejudo’s distance striking game tends to outland opponents with power to the head and body while absorbing more head jabs and power shots to the legs.


Distance striking seems to edge towards Dillashaw but the bantamweight champ’s also been vulnerable at times. His statistical head power defense hasn’t been quite as good as Cejudo (30% absorbed to Cejudo’s 24%) and his defensive knocked down metrics are all worse than Cejudo and 2-of-3 are worse than average (percent rounds and rate).


Neither fighter shoots many takedowns at distance, but at 47% (Dillashaw) and 42% (Cejudo), they’ve both been relatively successful when they have. The problem for each on Saturday will be that the other guy’s distance takedown defense is on point (87% defended for Dillashaw, 85% for Cejudo).


The clinch is a position where Cejudo tends to spend more time each round, but Dillashaw tends to be the one pressuring into the cage (74% to Cejudo’s 45%). They’re each high-volume clinch strikers with Dillashaw focusing mostly on the head while Cejudo mixes it up almost evenly between the head and body (24.4 and 23.5 power attempts to the head and body vs. 13.3 and 9.6 for the typical flyweight).


Should someone go for a clinch takedown, it’s usually Cejudo at 6.2 attempts P5M (5.4 average, 2.5 Dillashaw). His 42% success rate is slightly below average, but the former Olympic gold medalist Cejudo has a much better mix of volume and success than Dillashaw, with the bantamweight champ’s aforementioned clinch takedown volume relatively low and success rate coming in at only 22%. Oh yeah, and both champions have yet to be taken down from the clinch in the UFC.


On the ground, we’re dealing with two fighters who are almost always on top. Cejudo’s spent four seconds on bottom and almost 21 minutes on top while Dillashaw’s spent 96% of his 33 ground minutes in top position.


So who will be on top this time? It might be no one. But if it’s Cejudo, he’ll have to deal with a Dillashaw standup rate that’s 629% better than the flyweight average. For perspective, Cejudo noticeably focused on keeping Demetrious Johnson on the ground at UFC 227. It worked enough to nab the flyweight title from the long-time champ, but DJ’s standup rate was only 120% better than average.


If Dillashaw ends up on top, we don’t know much statistically about Cejudo’s bottom game. What we do know is that Dillashaw tends to have half guard or better 43% of his ground control time and lands an outstanding 39.2 power shots P5M (14.7 average).


All said, the fight computer has Dillashaw at 60.0% to become the UFC’s first champ-champ of 2019.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 01-17-2019, 04:25 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 01-17-2019, 04:29 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 01-17-2019, 04:30 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 01-17-2019, 04:31 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 01-17-2019, 04:31 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 01-17-2019, 04:32 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 01-17-2019, 06:42 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Northeast
Posts: 28,531
Rewards: 12,808,883
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 5256
Likes (Received): 8568
Who you taking?
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 01-17-2019, 07:01 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Northeast
Posts: 28,531
Rewards: 12,808,883
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 5256
Likes (Received): 8568
Man, i tried looking everywhere to see what fights are actually on ESPN. I know the prelims and the main card are not but all fights in between are. Which damn fights are those? Where do the prelims end and the main card start?
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 01-17-2019, 07:37 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
There are no UFC events televised on regular ESPN or ESPN2 ... With this new contract everything is ESPN+
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 01-17-2019, 07:39 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
Leaning TJ in the Main ... Curious to see if he gasses out / looks weaker going down to 125

Imo, Cowboy or nothing ... Hernandez talking crazy shit saying Donald is just a stepping stone and will kill kim. I'm a big Cerrone fan and trying not to get feelings involved but +165 on an experienced / tough as shit fighter sure looks tempting. Hernandez very well could win but not touching him at -190

Hardy should score another KO but the price on him and all ITD props including the under are astronomical. Crowder lost to Justin Willis by first-round knockout in his first UFC appearance and all 3 of his losses have come by KO ... to say the least this guy is just another can the UFC is feeding Hardy trying to build him into an MMA star.

Dennis Bermudez at +115 looks like a nice try at a good price


Also ... The over hit in 52 out of 73 UFC women's fights in 2018 ...

JoJo / Lipski Over 2½ is currently -190

Rachael / Paige Over 2½ is -220

Not saying it will work in 2019, but I made a small fortune last year playing these straight and parlaying them when chalk was high ... Some overs got as high as -300 to -400
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 01-17-2019, 07:54 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Northeast
Posts: 28,531
Rewards: 12,808,883
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 5256
Likes (Received): 8568
Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
There are no UFC events televised on regular ESPN or ESPN2 ... With this new contract everything is ESPN+
I think there are. It goes to ESPN+ for the main card at 10 PM

8:00 PM UFC Fight Night presented by Modelo (Prelims) ESPN
10:00 PM UFC Fight Night presented by Modelo (Main Card) ESPN+
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 01-17-2019, 08:04 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Northeast
Posts: 28,531
Rewards: 12,808,883
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 5256
Likes (Received): 8568
My guide shows it is on ESPN from 8-10 too
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 01-17-2019, 08:21 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
Yes, you are correct. I was thinking today was Friday and was looking at the wrong day.

The event will start and conclude on ESPN+, with main card bouts (10 p.m. ET) and early prelims (6 p.m. ET, prior to the ESPN television broadcast) streaming live in both English and Spanish.

The prelims will air nationally on ESPN and ESPN Deportes (8 p.m. ET).
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 01-17-2019, 08:23 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Northeast
Posts: 28,531
Rewards: 12,808,883
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 5256
Likes (Received): 8568
Yes I just wish there was a way to know what fights are on between 8-10

Those are the ones I would like to throw a few bucks on. My book has them listed with all the same time
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 01-17-2019, 08:29 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
ESPN .... 8PM


Mario Bautista +400
Cory Sandhagen -500

Vinicius Moreira +235
Alonzo Menifield -275

JoJo Calderwood +160
Ariane Lipski -185

Cowboy Cerrone +165
Alexander Hernandez -190
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 01-17-2019, 08:31 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Northeast
Posts: 28,531
Rewards: 12,808,883
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 5256
Likes (Received): 8568
Damn 2 hours and only 4 fights?
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 01-17-2019, 08:31 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Northeast
Posts: 28,531
Rewards: 12,808,883
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 5256
Likes (Received): 8568
You think cerrone can win or has age caught up with him?
Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 01-17-2019, 08:43 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
The usual 30 minute UFC pacing for each 3 round fight.

Fight ends quick, then 15-20 minutes of filler / commercials and commentary.

Cerrone still looks great and coming off a huge win making easy work of Mike Perry. Hernandez is no joke but wouldn't be surprised with a Cowboy win.

They must have changed things up or are just showing these prelims on ESPN because it's their inaugural debut. The original plan was ALL fights were only to be shown on ESPN+ outside of PPV
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 01-17-2019, 08:50 PM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Northeast
Posts: 28,531
Rewards: 12,808,883
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 5256
Likes (Received): 8568
Interesting. I thought they were going to be similar to fox when they had it. Prelims on ESPN and main events on +

That's how I understood the deal
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 01-17-2019, 09:08 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 94,757
Rewards: 26,420
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 13426
Likes (Received): 24324
I'd have no problem at all if that's the case
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
card, cejudo, dillashaw, espn+, mma

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:10 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 15.00% Host: cappersmallweb6