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Old 08-17-2017, 12:04 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Crawford vs Indongo

Saturday on ESPN, 7 pm Pacific.
Watching it, so gotta have something on it.

Indongo +1250
Crawford -2000

Round prop:
9' Ov -130/Un +110

Crawford is many people's choice for P4P, but I think odds are off here.
You don't lay 2k on ANY man in the ring (what are you going to do with $2,100 that you could not do with $2,000?) and certainly not in this match up of undefeated fighters, despite pedigrees.

Notes:

Crawford seems to be better skilled, and he has faced better quality of opponents.

Home field advantage for Crawford? Yes.
But Indongo has beaten Troyanovsky in Russia and Burns in Glasgow, which minimizes that edge a bit.

Higher KO % for Crawford? Sure.
But does that mean Crawford is the bigger banger with the more effective power punch?
Indongo is at 50% KO % but has KO's in 3 of last 4; peaking at the right time? His recent form is good.

Common opponent? Both beat Burns by decision.
Scorecards gave Crawford a + differential of 14 points; Indongo +24.

Crawford can be a slow starter until he figures his opponent out, and Indongo being a southpaw isn't going to help speed up that process. Based on that, I think Indongo's game plan is going to be to avoid the fight going to hometown score cards and put pressure on Crawford by going after him right from the opening bell, and try to land a power shot early.
Whether he can land one or not, and what effect it will have, remains to be seen.

So, what to do?

I lean to the Under, but at +1250 I'm taking a shot (small $ TV bet) on Indongo. NOT posting this as a recommendation/"Hey, I think there's an edge here" suggestion, just posting what I'll have on it, and why, just in case anyone stops by looking for an opinion to ride with, or against if you don't agree with reasoning.

Good luck to any of you who have action on this one, too.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 08-17-2017 at 12:10 PM.
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Old 08-17-2017, 05:36 PM
PHILLYBIRDS20 PHILLYBIRDS20 is offline
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Only bet that could be made is Indongo. Crawford is in my top 5 P4P. Indongo definitely is a fighter who deserved better odds than this. Its worth a small investment if youre watching it. GL My man
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Old 08-17-2017, 05:38 PM
PHILLYBIRDS20 PHILLYBIRDS20 is offline
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Also although I do look at it I try not use the common opponents as one of my guidelines as you styles make fights. You make a lot of valid points though
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Old 08-18-2017, 10:12 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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PB - Thanks for the input.
Re: common opponents; not a stat I give a lot of weight to, just a small part of a bigger picture I try to see when looking for an angle. This morning, when reviewing what I posted yesterday, I can see the confirmation bias within. Rather than a straight up, here's the facts/form your own opinion piece, it reads as if I'm trying to find a way to justify my buying Idongo. So, the common opponent differential played into that justification.
But, as you said, for a bet on either fighter A or B, Idongo is the only play to make.
At -2,000 a fighter isn't even worth using as a multiplier in a parlay, and certainly not Crawford in this particular matchup.

Crawford down to -1800 this morning, take back is now +1150. I got in yesterday when posted, at +1250, so as Carl Spackler says, "I got that going for me."

A play on the round prop offers better odds/chance, but what the hell, like I said it's small money/TV rooting interest, not a big buy, so I'll have a little fun yelling at my TV tomorrow night (hopefully I'll be yelling, "You got him, you got him, hit him again, the right hook, again, fuck him up!" and not, "Get up you bastard!")
May still buy the round prop Un, will post if I do.

At 5D they just added ESPN's Morales vs Machado tonight.
Line has Machado at -1200 so nothing of value there, but the round prop is at 7' -120. If I make a buy on it I'll post up, if anyone else here has an opinion shout it out.
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 08-18-2017 at 10:21 AM.
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Old 08-18-2017, 05:41 PM
PHILLYBIRDS20 PHILLYBIRDS20 is offline
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Machado has been dismantling fighters but Morales is a very good fighter at getting in and out and not staying too long y get himself in danger. He is a points machine and is happy with a 12 round decision while Machado is going to be looking to press Morales out of his comfort zone. Machado is an excellent Puerto Rican Fighter and Morales is an above average Mexican fighter. If I was playing I would go over 7. I think if Morales is going to win his gameplan should be to be patient pick his spots and frustrate Machado. This maybe hard to do as Marchado also is patient but the bright lights and the bigger fights ahead may get to him and throw him off a bit. Gl if you play
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Old 08-18-2017, 05:48 PM
PHILLYBIRDS20 PHILLYBIRDS20 is offline
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As for the Indongo fight. Indongo always fights in the others backyard as not too many fighters are interested in going to Africa lol. He has won in Russia and Scotland recently. Indongo has a couple things going for him. One is he is awkward as fuck with his southpaw style and he is also long. I think Crawford will figure this out and will probably stop him but if he takes this fight light he may be in for a challenge
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Old 08-18-2017, 06:05 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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"Not too many fighters are interested in going to Africa lol."

And I did laugh out loud when I read that line.

I thought about "Have any fighters gone to Africa?", all I could come up with, other than Ali and Foreman is . . .
Walken (Dogs of War) and Burton (Wild Geese).

The Ov is up to -140 now, thanks for the opinion, was leaning that way.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 08-18-2017 at 06:10 PM.
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Old 08-19-2017, 10:44 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Bird, thanks for the nod to the Over.
Free roll / house money covers my Indongo bet now.
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Old 08-20-2017, 10:03 AM
PHILLYBIRDS20 PHILLYBIRDS20 is offline
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Man Crawford had no problems whatsoever. My bad Nascar. I didn't play the fight but I really though Indongo would have fought a better fight and he played right into Crawford.

Since we have some big fights coming up I need Crawford Versus Mikey Garcia.
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Old 08-20-2017, 10:21 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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It's all good, like I said, small $/low expectations, all in fun.

If you and I had to make a pick on last night's fight,
and we had nothing to go on - no history, no records, no weigh-in info, no film of past bouts - if we had nothing to go on other than body language in the ring pre-fight, it would have been an easy call to make. Bell hadn't even rung yet and I knew it was not going to be a long fight, Indongo looked like he didn't care to be there, while Crawford was focused like a laser.
And Indongo's demeanor in round one confirmed the early assessment.
Gave back $ from Machado Over so no damage. Had I not pocketed that the night before I would have insured the Indongo risk with the Under in that bout, that was probably an opportunity missed as both of us saw it going that way.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 08-20-2017 at 10:27 AM.
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Old 08-20-2017, 05:57 PM
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Even after hearing his comments about Crawfords body punch hurt real bad made me think was this clown even interested in being in there? I think Crawford will move up to Welter unless he can get a payday against Mikey Garcia. But the big paydays are the weight class up which Crawford can handle no problem.
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