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Old 01-25-2017, 03:20 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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NYK UFC on FOX 23 - Saturday 1/28

Pepsi Center - Denver, Colorado
FOX Sports 1



The Beer drinking / party machine Muay Thai specialist vs. the shit talking street fighting boxer ... The Perfect Storm for the makings of possible Fight of the Night.

Cowboy looks like a brand new fighter since moving up full-time to 170. He has been on an absolute tear, winning 4 in a row, all by finish, including 3 consecutive knockouts. Fighting in his hometown of Denver vs. a guy that called him out after weeks of non-stop begging for this matchup just added more fuel to an already raging fire. No doubt Masvidal is game as fuck / tough as nails who can throw with the best of them ... but IMO he is not the guy that’s going to slow the Cowboy’s momentum.



Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone -150




Francis N'Gannou is a freak of nature. His 1st round kimura submission victory over Anthony Hamilton last December proved this guy is from another planet. "The Predator" is on a killing spree ... 8 fight winning streak including 5 first round finishes and 4 of his last 5 wins have come by knockout. On the other hand Arlovski enters Saturday night coming off 3 straight embarrassing defeats. Getting knocked out by Stipe Miocic in round 1 ... getting knocked out by Alistair Overeem in round 2 and Josh Barnett submitting him in round 3 last November. I was never sold on Arlovski’s late-stage comeback in MMA after going the distance with Frank Mir and his last three losses was all the proof I needed. Andre is at the very end of a very long, successful career. Ngannou is one inch taller with a six-inch reach advantage / young / hungry and hits like a freight train. It shouldn't take too long for Ngannou to land a bomb on the Pittbull's chin shutting out his lights.


Francis "The Predator" Ngannou wins by TKO/KO (-190)




Also my boy Aljo fights on this card ... he is currently +120 vs. Raphael Assuncao. I will be placing a few $$$ on him just for action and extra cheering incentive.
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Old 01-26-2017, 06:50 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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CG Technology ...


"As of right now there is more $$$ wagered on the Cowboy Cerrone vs Jorge Masvidal fight than all other fights on card combined"


IMO all the proof you need that this should have been the Main Event.

Pena vs. Shevchenko headlining this event is a Joke.
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Old 01-26-2017, 09:58 PM
Swoosh1 Swoosh1 is offline
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Hey NYK if you don't mind what do you think of this line up??

Donald Cerrone
Jason Gonzalez
Jordan Johnson
A Di Chirico
Francis Ngannou
A. Sterling
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Old 01-27-2017, 12:26 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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You know my feelings on Cowboy / Ngannou and Aljo ...


IMO all 3 of these are coin flips / guess / roll of the dice ...


Jason Gonzalez has almost identical stats as JC Cottrell ... I don't know much about either fighter, why not Gonzalez at the better odds of +125 ... ??


Jordan Johnson 6-0 ... Performance of the Night / Fight of the Night / Knockout of the Night / Submission of the Night ... 4 first round finishes ... 3 wins in 62 seconds or less. Luis Henrique da Silva 12-1 ... 11 wins by knockout, 1 submission (armbar) ... 8 first round finishes ... 4 wins in under two minutes. I don't know much about Johnson but have watched da Silva a few times, he isn't the most technically sound fighter but at +180 there might be slight value there with more MMA / UFC experience and displays of power with those 11 KO's


Alessio Di Chirico is a threat from both sides ... 4 wins by KO, 4 by submission (3 RNC, keylock). On the flip side so is Spicely ... 2 wins by KO, 5 by submission (Armbar, heel hook, RNC, guillotine) including 7 first round finishes. Again odds say it all with -115 / -105 odds ... coin flip no real advantage on either side


In all honesty this is a tough event to cap outside The Cowboy WAR and Predator / Pit Bull matchup.
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Old 01-27-2017, 08:28 AM
Swoosh1 Swoosh1 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
You know my feelings on Cowboy / Ngannou and Aljo ...


IMO all 3 of these are coin flips / guess / roll of the dice ...


Jason Gonzalez has almost identical stats as JC Cottrell ... I don't know much about either fighter, why not Gonzalez at the better odds of +125 ... ??


Jordan Johnson 6-0 ... Performance of the Night / Fight of the Night / Knockout of the Night / Submission of the Night ... 4 first round finishes ... 3 wins in 62 seconds or less. Luis Henrique da Silva 12-1 ... 11 wins by knockout, 1 submission (armbar) ... 8 first round finishes ... 4 wins in under two minutes. I don't know much about Johnson but have watched da Silva a few times, he isn't the most technically sound fighter but at +180 there might be slight value there with more MMA / UFC experience and displays of power with those 11 KO's


Alessio Di Chirico is a threat from both sides ... 4 wins by KO, 4 by submission (3 RNC, keylock). On the flip side so is Spicely ... 2 wins by KO, 5 by submission (Armbar, heel hook, RNC, guillotine) including 7 first round finishes. Again odds say it all with -115 / -105 odds ... coin flip no real advantage on either side


In all honesty this is a tough event to cap outside The Cowboy WAR and Predator / Pit Bull matchup.
Thank you, I know every time we believe a fight will and or should go one way it takes a shitty unrealistic turn not in our favor lol!!!!
I will roll with this and put another one together

Thanks again glad to see you back posting in this forum.
Where do you fight all your stats on the fighters? Maybe the most reliable other than what you write LOL!!!!
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Old 01-27-2017, 10:30 AM
PHILLYBIRDS20 PHILLYBIRDS20 is online now
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Good Luck NYK.
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Old 01-27-2017, 12:56 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Swoosh1 View Post
Thank you, I know every time we believe a fight will and or should go one way it takes a shitty unrealistic turn not in our favor lol!!!!
I will roll with this and put another one together

Thanks again glad to see you back posting in this forum.
Where do you fight all your stats on the fighters? Maybe the most reliable other than what you write LOL!!!!

A lot of my info comes from MMA Mania / Bloody Elbow and MMA Junkie.

I also stay in contact with Fightnomics Reed a few times a week thru twitter / emails and text . He is a great source for info.

Like you said, many fights take a shitty / unrealistic turn. This is a very hard sport to try to profit on / find an edge. I can't tell you how many times I found a spot I loved with shit odds (-220 / -250 / -280) and it didn't come close. Anything can happen when that cage door gets slammed shut.
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Old 01-28-2017, 01:54 PM
philenium philenium is online now
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Gl brother. Good to see u back
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Old 01-28-2017, 03:25 PM
cman cman is offline
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I am following your top 3 bro

Great night of sports!!!!!

wde
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"It is not the monsters who come out into the light that bring terror, it is those that stay in the fog that bring hell with them"...... Clive Barker
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Old 01-28-2017, 06:34 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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As usual another laugher out of Aljo.

All American wrestler with no stand-up power / shit boxing trying to stand and not take it to the ground. I have no clue what the hell is going on at Serra-Longo but he is on the fast track to Bellator or back to the local New Jersey circuit making $20 a night.
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Old 01-28-2017, 06:40 PM
Swoosh1 Swoosh1 is offline
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WTF kinda strange what the Fuk are these guys training for???
Obviously not each fight!!!!
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Old 01-28-2017, 06:53 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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There was NEVER a chance of Sterling to KO Raphael with kicks or punches. NEVER. And Everybody who knows anything knew that coming in.

All I heard from his camp is how great his boxing looked and the power he has gained the past few months. Bells went off in my head instantly that he was cooked in Round 1. I have watched this kid fight live 7-8 times ... he isn't a stand and bang fighter ... he is a BORING takedown / wrestle and look for submission style fighter.

Why the fuck go away from what was working ??? You don't become a stand up fighter in 8-9 months and you are born with power, you just don't gain it overnight.

Makes No sense at all what is going on. But then again everybody from that camp has got smoked lately ... Weidman twice ... Sterling twice ... Gian Villante 2-2 last 4.
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Old 01-28-2017, 06:55 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Oh well ... that one was only a small action junkie play ... hopefully the big boys come to play .........
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Old 01-28-2017, 07:26 PM
cman cman is offline
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Hopefully...your guys kill it'


wde
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Old 01-28-2017, 07:29 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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I hope so ...

Not sure whats up with this one ... All of a sudden the bottom has fallen out of Gannou winning by TKO/KO ... was -200 last night now -162

But side and O/U haven't moved at all.
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Old 01-29-2017, 02:22 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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After the Cowboy performance I need to toss in the towel sharing my Bullshit.

It sucks to lose my own money but it bothers me to lose money for others following.

Cerrone to be that lost / outclassed / clueless in Denver in front of all family and friends did me in / Finally put me over the edge.


No research ... no heart involved I will share my FINAL Thoughts down here ...............


Fat Dan will gas out Rumble and retain belt

Holly will win 145 Belt

Bisping will play hide and seek / paddy cake with Romero gassing him to keep belt

Spider will goof around once again losing to Brunson

Khabib beats Tony

Wonderboy will get revenge over Woodson to steal his belt and Tyron will keep crying UFC racism





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Old 01-29-2017, 08:55 AM
Swoosh1 Swoosh1 is offline
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I really hope you reconsider throwing in the towel, Your insight is far better than what we read on other web sights!!! You give your opinion and that all you have ever said very few times you say this is a lock!!! and trying to cap MMA is kinda like going on a first date and guarantee getting laid!!! Sometime it just doesn't happen!!!!

Thanks for every post you shared in this forum, I will still check daily like I do now hoping their is a thread started by NYK!!!!!!

Handshake
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Old 02-01-2017, 12:56 PM
thebeav4 thebeav4 is online now
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I have to agree with SWOOSH NYK! I also enjoy your insight and find it helpful! Are you perfect No and either is anything else. I have to say football,baseball and basketball all have people doing the same thing as you and they perform the same way! Please reconsider!! Thanks
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Dirty Dozen Wins *****
Weekly Weiners Wins
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Old 02-02-2017, 09:58 AM
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I totally agree with Swoosh and the Bev Knight!! For I always look at your picks, no matter what sport and put them under consideration.
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Old 02-03-2017, 06:48 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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I appreciate the nice words from you all. I hate losing and I hate it even more when I feel I found an edge and it isn't even close. And it happens too often for my liking with this sport. Many highs mixed in with too many lows. Even knowing as much as I do with UFC, I cant stay consistent enough to follow. 13-5 runs are followed with 6-13 runs time after time.

My Ngannou win by TKO/KO prediction was spot on. The Cerrone play of course cancels it out and was just flat out Embarrassing ... totally wrong.

Sure it was just a movie but the best way to describe that Cerrone shit show was the first fight between Clubber Lang and Rocky. Rocky felt he was unbeatable, screwed around / not taking things seriously. Lang trained like an animal, hungry as hell, talked mad shit (just like Masvidal did) and backed it all up destroying their opponent in their hometown.

This shit where Cerrone thinks he needs to fight every 6-7 weeks is a joke. He is waaaay too active on social media / radio interviews / parties too hard and travels too much during camps to be taken seriously anymore. It's basically a slap in the face to his opponents showing them no respect thinking he will have no problems beating them. Masvidal proved Cowboy (and many others) he isn't that special and the disrespect just adds more motivation.

Besides Cerrone slamming beers at a Steel Panther concert the night before the fight, another thing that burned my ass was him having his RV parked in front of the arena loaded with 75 cases of Budwesier he planned on passing out to fans / friends after his "win".


The bottom line ... trying to cap MMA ... basically NO true advantage with -110 to -250 odds. It's all a coin flip. All the weeks and months of training / conditioning / diet / boxing / wrestling / grapping / takedown defense can instantly vanish in the snap of a finger when that cage door slams shut ... And I have seen it happen hundreds of times. Betting -300 or higher chalk might hit at a better clip but that isn't handicapping and nobody wants to risk a lot to possibly win a little.

I might share a lot of info / stats down here but in all honesty at the end of the day its just meaningless numbers. This sport proves more times than not the better fighter doesn't win. It's a sport of inches / seconds and luck. Many times momentum / past performances mean nothing ... for the most part its basically two 0-0 fighters entering the octagon where anything can happen.
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Old 02-03-2017, 09:36 PM
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NYK your words in the last paragraph echoes what several fighters like Mike Brown (I think that is the UFC fighters name) stated...it is motivation on that day...I really feel some of these guys over train.

Boxers are notorious for not making weights and choosing not to even try and cut weight, just try and cut a new deal for team for the fight to go on...because it will leave them without any energy.



wde
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"It is not the monsters who come out into the light that bring terror, it is those that stay in the fog that bring hell with them"...... Clive Barker
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Old 02-03-2017, 11:26 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Another big problem I have with fighters nowadays (around 70%+) refuse to watch / study past fights and film on opponents. They have their coaches and trainers do it for them. From what I have seen over the past couple years, this technique doesn't work. Way too many guys are coming into fights totally clueless and seem to know nothing about the guy they are fighting.

I find it mind blowing that the casual UFC fan / sports bettor can see this crystal clear but the "know it all" coaches / gym "experts" are blind to this.
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Old 02-04-2017, 02:05 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Holy shit !! ... Dana knows reality ???







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Old 02-04-2017, 07:34 AM
Swoosh1 Swoosh1 is offline
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Great write up NYK!!!
Your understanding of the UFC from past to present is what we appreciate the most, you will forget more than most of us will ever learn!! IMO
I myself honestly don't know a lot, what you write opens my eyes to see what's going on and what to look for in the up coming fights.

Thanks again for your write up!!!!!

BTW you turned me into a Diego fan!!!!!! If all fighters approached each fight like him Imagine how awesome the UFC would be!!!!

Sorry one more I will continue to post my DK line ups when I make them, if you have time as always I appreciate you opinion!!!!

Have a great day enjoy the SB &a tonight's fights
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Old 02-04-2017, 02:02 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Figured you might wanna check this out Swoosh ... Action Report for tonight.

CG Technology in Vegas takes a lot of UFC action ... more than most books out in the desert.



from Matthew Holt ... COO at CG Analytics / Vice President of Business Development for CG Technology ...



"Biggest Liabilities on the UFC FN 104 card for the book right now in order:

Curtis Blaydes -330
James Vick -120
Anthony Hamilton -200
Ricardo Ramos +125
Korean Zombie +160


"Significant amount of money still pouring in on Curtis Blaydes and he is currently largest liability at UFC FN 104 for the book."


"Public still heavy on Korean Zombie and we have 5x as many tickets written on him but $$$ wagered is almost even as bigger bets on Bermudez"


"Still getting one sided action on Anthony Hamilton as there is little to no support from bettors on Marcel Fortuna"


"Ricardo Ramos continuing to be very popular underdog with bettors which has caused the 30-cent drop in price on Tanaka"
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