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  #51  
Old 02-04-2017, 11:52 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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3 years, 6 months and 1 day since last fight ... Korean Zombie (+160) slaps the shit out of #9 Bermudez in round 1


sooooo glad I didn't screw around with this Bullshit tonight.

Just like I said ... this sport is So Unpredictable
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  #52  
Old 02-04-2017, 11:55 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Hitting a horse in a 20 field race is almost easier to pick than this stuff.
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  #53  
Old 02-04-2017, 11:57 PM
satchel27 satchel27 is offline
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Swoosh, like NYK just said, "so unpredictable"

You make one mistake and it could be over in 2 seconds
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  #54  
Old 02-04-2017, 11:57 PM
Swoosh1 Swoosh1 is offline
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Lmaooo so true!!!!
Well on to next week!!!!
Should be interesting
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  #55  
Old 02-04-2017, 11:59 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Bermudez has only been knocked out once before this (22 fights) and it was by a crazy / freaky flying knee from Jeremy Stephens.
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  #56  
Old 02-05-2017, 12:00 AM
satchel27 satchel27 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Hitting a horse in a 20 field race is almost easier to pick than this stuff.
Or a 4 team parley
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  #57  
Old 02-05-2017, 12:29 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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And Buffer wears me out

I would take 10 Buffers over Karyn Bryant (UFC anchor on FS1)

She is sooooooo super annoying ... and ugly adding more annoying points.
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  #58  
Old 02-08-2017, 02:26 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Spider Silva IMO is one of the VERY best ... EVER.

In his prime ....... GOAT

UFC 208 I FINALLY get to see the MAN fight Live.


Anderson / just like Bruce = Legendary


one of my Favorite videos (of course outside Diego) ..........





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  #59  
Old 02-08-2017, 02:42 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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With that being said ... Derek Brunson -150 is the play.

Hopefully I'm wrong but head always wins over heart ..............
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  #60  
Old 02-08-2017, 03:49 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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UFC 208


CG Technology ...


"De Randamie continues to be most popular UFC 208 selection with bettors and is by far biggest liability to the book right now"


"We also saw significant action come in today on Glover Teixeira driving that line up another 15 cents, now 30 cents up from open"


"Jared Brooks continues to be the hot underdog selection and the line is almost down to a pickem now. He may be favored by fight time"


"Also seeing some significant backing for huge underdog Tim Boetsch who has a punchers chance if nothing else Saturday night"
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  #61  
Old 02-08-2017, 03:53 PM
cman cman is offline
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glad your back and did not quit on us


I have to have a little something on the matches and you are my go to guy for picks

wde
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"It is not the monsters who come out into the light that bring terror, it is those that stay in the fog that bring hell with them"...... Clive Barker
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  #62  
Old 02-08-2017, 04:06 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Just going to post small action Junkie leans if I have anything worth sharing.

The days of watching / studying fight after fight for hours and crunching pages of stats week after week are done. The return on wagers isn't worth all the time / effort.


Main focus for now is watching where the money goes / line moves.
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  #63  
Old 02-08-2017, 06:40 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Worth noting for UFC 208 Main Event ...


In 133 minutes of combined cage time (2 hours / 13 minutes) ... de Randamie and Holm have just 3 total takedown attempts.

Expect a striking duel for the Title.



Germaine de Randamie -125
Holly Holm +105

Over 4Ĺ (-120)
Under 4Ĺ (+100)



Goes 5 round distance (-115)
Fight won't go 5 round distance (-115)


Randaime wins inside distance (+219)
Not Randaime inside distance (-279)

Holm wins inside distance (+318)
Not Holm inside distance (-420)

Randaime wins by 5 round decision (+267)
Not Randaime by 5 round decision (-357)

Holm wins by 5 round decision (+250)
Not Holm by 5 round decision (-350)

Randaime wins by submission (+1042)
Any other result (-2125)

Holm wins by submission (+830)
Any other result (-1730)

Randaime wins by TKO/KO (+280)
Any other result (-400)

Holm wins by TKO/KO (+455)
Any other result (-765)
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  #64  
Old 02-08-2017, 08:27 PM
Swoosh1 Swoosh1 is offline
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Hey NYK Here is my first A quick blind pick type LOL

Tim Boetsch ( I know a flyer but low price why not)
Jarred Brooks ( Undefeated so lets roll with it )
Derek Brunson
Holly Holm
Dustin Poirier
Wilson Reis

Thanks in advance for your imput as well as the information you post for us
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  #65  
Old 02-08-2017, 10:03 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Looks pretty good ...


Jacare is a Beast but nothing can be done with him at -525 ... Barbarian Boetsch has huge KO power so why not take a chance at +415 and see if he can land a miracle blast.


Brooks / McCall is a coin flip fight (as odds indicate -115/-105). McCall (13-5-1) hasn't fought in 2 years coming off a unanimous decision loss Jan. 2015 vs. John Lineker. Brooks is undefeated (12-0) Two wins by KO, five by submission ... Five first round finishes, proving he is a threat on his feet or on the ground. Why not go with the guy who hasn't tasted defeat yet ??


Like I said above ... Kills me but I gotta believe Brunson is the play vs. Silva. 33 year old fighter on the upswing facing a 40 year old fighter on the downside of his career. Spider hasnít looked the same since he lost twice to former middleweight champ Chris Weidman and suffered that horrific broken leg. Silva did register one win since the Weidman losses, but a failed drug test wiped that out, leaving him with what amounts to a four-fight skid. Brunson is Extremely dangerous and this could very well be his coming-out party.


Holmís striking and movement is elite. Expect her to move around frequently, frustrate de Randamie and pinpoint her striking. De Randamie does have some quality wins ... she has defeated Hiroko Yamanaka, Julie Kedzie, Larissa Pacheco and Anna Elmose, but stumbled against the much smaller Vanessa Porto, an inexperienced Julia Budd who had yet to find her groove and most recently, future UFC champion Amanda Nunes. Holly will be the toughest challenge she has faced. I would be surprised if Holly doesn't win this fight but I wouldn't be shocked. Ya never know what will happen when 2 ladies enter the octagon.


With Poirier and Miller, we are absolutely guaranteed an exciting fight. Two guys who are out to prove theyíre still a relevant force in the UFC. I am a little surprised Diamond Dustin is this big of a favorite. IMO I was thinking no higher than -300 ... -450 seems really steep. Poirier is the better of the two but Miller shouldn't be taken lightly. Gun to my head I lean Poirier but wouldn't be surprised if Miller pulled this one out .... ??


Wilson Reis has been on a tear winning 9 of his last 11 including Seven first round finishes in 21 fights. Sasaki has lost 2 of his last 3, getting knocked out and taping out. Reis "should" have very little problems Saturday night.
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  #66  
Old 02-09-2017, 03:18 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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One I have been keeping my eye on is Jared Cannonier vs Glover Teixeira.

Same scenario as Brunson vs. Spider ... younger fighter on upswing facing older fighter on downside of career.

The fact the UFC matched Cannonier against a vet like Teixeira shows they think highly about his potential. The oddsmakers also think the same with the #15 Light Heavyweight not that big of a dog vs. #3 Light Heavyweight

Cannonier (9-1) looked very good last December with a unanimous decision victory over Ion Cutelaba proving for 15 straight minutes he hits like a truck and has a chin made of granite. Teixeira (coming off a 1st round KO last August vs Rumble Johnson) has a ton of experience and one hell of a UFC resume but IMO Cannonier at +165 looks like a very live dog vs. the aging Brazilian.
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  #67  
Old 02-09-2017, 04:55 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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CG Technology ... Thursday Update ...


"Finally saw some massive bets on Jacare laying the huge price this morning which has completely flipped our liability on that fight"


"Teixeira action continues to come at at pretty good clip causing that line to finally hit the 1-2 mark today"


"Veteran Jim Miller getting some love from bettors today at the big plus price"


"Despite what certainly seems like an inflated price at this point money keeps flowing in on Mahkachev vs Nick Lentz"


"The Jared Brooks love train seems to have come to a stop as fair amount of Ian McCall money coming in today"


"Holly Holm money finally started showing up today and it looks like the -140 on De Randamie yesterday was the highest this line will be"
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  #68  
Old 02-09-2017, 09:16 PM
Swoosh1 Swoosh1 is offline
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Thanks for the line movements NYK!!
Will you be there for weigh ins??
Over/Under miss weight 1.5 lol?? Joking I hope all make it!!!
Interested to see how Holm looks, I hope she wins!!!!
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  #69  
Old 02-09-2017, 09:49 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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I will be skipping weigh ins. Twitter and many MMA websites announce weight as soon as they hit the scales in the morning so you already know what happened / it anybody missed. IMO not worth the time to watch them walk across the stage / get on fake scale as weight is announced and then do a 5 second stare down.

Agree with you on Holm ... Interested to see what happens in Main Event. I have read a few articles and it sounds like Holly is putting a lot of pressure on herself to win. It will be interesting to see if that is a factor / shows when she hits the cage ...
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  #70  
Old 02-09-2017, 09:59 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Article worth sharing from Fightnomics Reed (aka Reed Kuhn)



Where's the KO potential at UFC 208 this week?

How will it affect your fantasy team?


All bouts have to start with two fighters standing at a distance, and when they do thereís always a chance that someone is going to get dropped. Once a fighter scores a knockdown in a fight, their chances of winning rise dramatically, and it often sets up an early finish. That means that identifying knockout potential on a card can mean big points for your fantasy team.

So where does that potential lie among this weekendís competitors? Here is how they stack up in their historical performance of scoring and receiving knockdowns in the cage.

Knockdown Rate here is defined as Distance Knockdowns per Distance Landed Power Head Strike. Itís not a perfect metric, but itís a great proxy to understand how those highlight reel finishes happen. The UFC average for Knockdown Rate is 2.3%, meaning there are typically 43 power head strikes landed before a knockdown occurs, each with a 2.3% chance of being the strike that does the job. But thereís a lot of variation between weight classes and the individual athletes within them.

For fantasy players, this boils down to knowing who has a good chance to drop their opponent on fight night, and who is most at risk for getting knocked out. In both cases, itís better to be at the top of the graph, and worse to be near the bottom.


Heaviest Hitters

The co-main event of the card features the two top scorers on our chart, but one man stands apart from the pack. Itís worth noting that Anderson Silva not only leads the card as the most able knockout artist, he owns the UFC all-time record with 18 total knockdowns scored. His precision striking from long range has felled the best in the business, and that skill is not something that degrades with age. His record will likely stand for a few more years, at least until Anthony ďRumbleĒ Johnson chalks up a handful more fights to catch him.

Silva is paired with another powerful hitter in Derek Brunson, despite his striking style being very different from Silvaís. Silva has an extremely sharp jab, while Brunson relies on jabs much less, and lands few when he uses them. But Brunson clearly has power, scoring three total knockdowns in his fewer fights to date.

So both strikers are dangerous offensively, but they are also vulnerable defensively. While Brunson has the worse overall Knockdown Defense score, Silva is older, and has taken most of his damage only recently. However, Brunsonís style of striking is to come forward, showing poor defense, making him especially vulnerable to Silvaís style of counter-striking. So both men are capable of getting a knockout here, hence the close fight. If you choose right, youíll book solid fantasy points at a fairly even price.

Despite being a massive underdog, Tim Boetsch always has a puncherís chance. Heís scored seven knockdowns to date with a solid 6.3% Knockdown Rate. His matchup against Ronaldo Souza, however, is unlikely to be a standing duel. Souza being one of the best submission artists in the game has every reason not to want to stand with Boetsch, as a ground battle would avoid the Barbarianís best strength, and attack his biggest weakness. Souza is also now 37 years old (older than Boetsch), and should be even more selective where he engages. One way or the other, this fight should not go the distance.

Honorable mention goes to Dustin Poirier. Heís the lightest of the top scoring sluggers, and comes in second place behind Silva with the most knockdowns scored to date (10) on this card. His Knockdown Rate is three times the average for the Lightweight division, and even more dangerous given that his opponent Jim Miller has taken a lot of damage over his long career. While Miller hasnít shown a bad Defensive Knockdown Rate, we should expect a decline should he get in any more shootouts. A finish for Piorier is a strong possibility, and thatís the prime reason his price will be high.


Donít Expect a KO

UFC 208 is less stacked with knockout artists than is typical for a pay-per-view card. Nearly half the fighters competing have not scored a distance knockdown, and that includes some veterans with plenty of cage time like Nik Lentz and Ian McCall.

But among the veterans with reliably low power, several are primarily grapplers who are unlikely to depart from their excellent grappling base in hunt of a knockout. That includes Wilson Reis, Phillipe Nover, and Roan Carnerio. Not only have they not scored any distance knockdowns, they are unlikely to engage in that style of fight. That doesnít mean they canít finish on the ground, just expect things to take more time to develop.

The main event is very likely to be a striking duel between Holm and de Randamie, as neither woman attempts many takedowns and prefers to stand and trade. But it will be a fairly even matchup of expert kickboxers, two technicians not big on power, nor susceptible to it. Twenty five minutes is a long time to sling leather, so a finish could happen, but probably not until later in the fight after one or the other has had a chance to accumulate some offense.


At Risk for a KO

Sample size alert: Islam Makhachev has only been hit three times with a distance power head strike in his limited action to date, but one of those did result in a knockdown. Weíll see with time whether that was a fluke, or a sign of a vulnerability.

With larger samples sizes, the fighters with the most knockdowns received to date include Nik Lentz, Belal Muhammad, and Wilson Reis, all with four. No fighters on this card have more than that, and itís unusual to see fighters who are knockdown-prone persist in the UFC for much longer after reaching that threshold. Look for these fighters to want to avoid a striking duel, or else risk a violent finish.
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  #71  
Old 02-10-2017, 02:11 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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All fighters made weight for UFC 208.

That rarely happens these days.

It certainly has an effect on wagering markets
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  #72  
Old 02-10-2017, 02:14 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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CG Technology ... Friday Update ...



"Holm money keeps coming in and Jacare Souza as biggest liability for has now replaced De Randamie as biggest liability for book on UFC 208"


"If you buy into Tim Boetsch's puncher's chance then CG Technology is the place to bet it as we are the highest I've seen on Jacare"


"Higher than expected amount of $$ wagered on Randy Brown this morning causing that line to creep up to high end of market"


"Took a little bit of Cannonier money last 18 hours as well slowing the wave of Teixeira money we were seeing prior two days"


"Ian McCall has become very popular bet last 24 hours, especially since all early Brooks action flipped him to underdog"
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  #73  
Old 02-10-2017, 02:26 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Even with everybody making weight, as Always something happens ...


Tomorrow's UFC 208 Heavyweight fight has been scrapped.

Justin Willis has been deemed medically unfit to compete ... Marcin Tybura will be paid his show money with the fight cancelled.


My guess is bad weight cut. He's a massive heavyweight and took the fight on short notice.
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  #74  
Old 02-11-2017, 02:09 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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In the City having fun / getting primed for tonight and just got the word Another fight cancelled tonight ...


Ian McCall will not be fighting tonight due to illness.
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  #75  
Old 02-11-2017, 05:42 PM
Swoosh1 Swoosh1 is offline
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Thank so for the update NYK, Enjoy the fights tonight, I hope you see some good fights
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